Thanksgiving 2025 has arrived, and with it comes a familiar blend of celebration and economic anxiety for families and farmers across the United States. While the holiday is synonymous with turkey and gratitude, this year’s feast is shaped by a complex mix of rising costs, disease outbreaks, and the ever-present challenges facing American agriculture.
At Old Brick Farm in Michigan, Larry Doll is counting his blessings. His family’s five-generation legacy of raising turkeys survived a year when bird flu and avian metapneumovirus devastated flocks nationwide. According to emegypt.net, more than 2 million birds were lost in just three months during 2025, shrinking the U.S. turkey flock to a 40-year low. Doll’s perseverance paid off, and he’s already planning ahead. “We’re ordering 100 more turkey hatchlings to meet the growing demand,” Doll shared, determined to keep his operation thriving even as the industry faces unprecedented hurdles.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture reports that wholesale turkey prices are expected to rise by 44% in 2025, a staggering figure that reflects not just disease losses but also economic forces beyond the farm. Tariffs on steel and aluminum are driving up the price of canned goods, adding 10 to 40 cents per item, and rippling through the grocery aisles. According to emegypt.net, these tariffs, combined with increased demand for turkey as beef prices soared by 14% in September 2025, have put additional pressure on both producers and consumers.
Yet, there’s a twist. Despite wholesale prices climbing, the cost of a classic Thanksgiving dinner for ten people has actually fallen compared to last year—at least by some measures. The American Farm Bureau Federation’s annual survey pegged the average cost at $55.18, down 5% from 2024. That’s a welcome surprise for families watching their budgets. Still, as emegypt.net points out, other surveys found higher costs: Datasembly’s basket of staples totaled $58.81, up 4.1% from the previous year, and Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute estimated the meal at $80, a slight decrease of 2% to 3%.
What explains the discrepancy? It comes down to what’s in the basket—and where you shop. Discount retailers like Aldi are promoting $40 meal packages for ten people, while Kroger advertises a Thanksgiving menu for under $50. These promotions are designed to lure shoppers in a year when wholesale frozen hen turkey prices averaged $1.77 per pound, an 81% jump from 2024, according to emegypt.net.
For many, the turkey is still the star of the show, but its share of the meal’s total cost has dropped to 39%, the lowest since 2000, according to the Farm Bureau. The average 16-pound bird cost $21.50, or $1.34 per pound—more than 16% less than last year. While that’s good news for consumers, it’s cold comfort for farmers. The Farm Bureau’s research and economics manager, Christopher Pudenz, explained, “Iowa farmers face historically low crop prices, high input costs and tight margins, yet they remain resilient and committed to doing what they do best—caring for their land, practicing good stewardship and raising healthy animals to provide abundant, affordable food for families here at home and across the country.”
The impact of disease on the turkey industry cannot be overstated. Since 2022, nearly 19 million turkeys have been affected by highly pathogenic avian influenza, according to the Farm Bureau. While Iowa reported only one outbreak in Calhoun County this fall, the specter of disease has made flock management a high-stakes endeavor. The National Turkey Federation reports that 87% of Americans celebrating Thanksgiving in 2025 plan to serve turkey, with 74% opting for the whole bird and 65% choosing to roast it in the oven.
But the challenges extend beyond the turkey. Prices for key side dishes have shifted in unpredictable ways. Sweet potatoes, for example, cost $4 for a three-pound bag in 2025—a 37% jump from the previous year. The Farm Bureau attributes this spike in part to hurricanes in North Carolina, the nation’s largest producer of sweet potatoes. Labor shortages, rising wages, and supply chain hiccups have also driven up the price of fresh vegetables and dairy products. Cranberry sauce, a Thanksgiving staple, saw its price increase by 38% this year, while canned goods are more expensive thanks to tariffs.
Not all news is grim. Some items, like cranberries, stuffing, and rolls, actually decreased in price for 2025. Still, the overall trend is upward, and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 2.7% increase in grocery prices in September 2025. For small businesses, the impact of tariffs is especially acute. Rachel Lutz, owner of the Peacock Room in Detroit, told emegypt.net that a $700 jewelry shipment recently came with an added $100 tariff. “That adds up fast and is unsustainable in the long run,” she said. “It has been heartbreaking to wake up so many mornings and see yet another family-owned business closing in our community because they cannot absorb these costs.”
For farmers, the economics are sobering. USDA data shows they receive less than 16 cents for every dollar spent on food in the U.S. The National Farmers Union’s annual report found that farmers earn just 6 cents per pound, or 2.4% of the sale price, for turkey. Stuffing is even worse, with farmers pocketing only 1.3% of the price of a 12-ounce box. By contrast, producers selling free-range or organic turkeys directly to consumers can charge between $5 and $7 per pound, but these are exceptions rather than the rule. Cranberry and green producers fare better, receiving nearly 32% and 25% respectively of the Thanksgiving food dollar.
The current system, according to National Farmers Union President Rob Larew, is deeply flawed. “Every Thanksgiving, the numbers tell the same story: farmers aren’t asking for a bigger slice of pie, just a fair one,” Larew said. “It’s long past time to fix a food system that works for corporations but not for the families who grow and consume our food.”
Back at Old Brick Farm, Larry Doll’s turkeys—sold for $6.50 per pound—are a testament to the value of quality and tradition. Many customers call them the best they’ve ever had. Doll’s dedication highlights the human side of the Thanksgiving table, where each bird represents not just a meal, but the culmination of hard work, resilience, and a commitment to feeding the nation.
As Americans gather around tables this Thanksgiving, the meal is a reminder of both bounty and struggle—a snapshot of an agricultural system under strain, yet buoyed by the determination of those who bring food from farm to fork.
