The political landscape in Cardiff shifted unexpectedly on August 14, 2025, as the Green Party secured a historic victory in the Grangetown ward by-election, marking their first ever council seat in the Welsh capital and their inaugural by-election win in all of Wales. The result, which saw Green candidate Matt Youde edge out Labour’s Khuram Chowdhry by a mere 44 votes, has sent ripples through the city’s political establishment and raised fresh questions ahead of next year’s Senedd election.
For more than a decade, Labour had maintained a firm grip on Grangetown, an ethnically diverse ward in the south of Cardiff. But as the votes were counted late Thursday night, it became clear that the winds of change were blowing. Youde collected 818 votes, representing 24.4% of the total, while Chowdhry trailed with 774 votes, or 23.1%. Plaid Cymru’s Neil Roberts followed with 639 votes (19.1%), and Joseph Martin of Reform UK finished fourth with 495 votes (13%). Other candidates included Vincent Yewlett of Propel (327 votes), Independent Ahmed Samater (158 votes), Conservative James Hamblin (139 votes), and Liberal Democrat Irfan Latif (63 votes).
The by-election was triggered by the resignation of Labour councillor Sara Robinson, who had served since 2022. The turnout, however, was notably low, with just 26.7% of eligible voters casting a ballot—a stark contrast to previous years. In the 2022 council elections, Labour’s leading candidate had received a commanding 2,885 votes, and the party collectively secured 56% of the ward’s votes. Even as recently as April 2024, Labour’s Waheeda Sattar earned 48% of votes in a by-election held after the death of her husband, Councillor Abdul Sattar, despite her campaign being limited by religious mourning observances.
Labour’s dominance in Grangetown had seemed unshakeable, but according to WalesOnline, the Green Party approached this contest with growing confidence. Matt Youde, who has lived in Cardiff for a decade, campaigned vigorously on local concerns—chief among them the persistent issues of litter and fly-tipping. "Ever since I moved here, particularly the lane down the side of the train station, it is fly-tipping central," Youde explained in an interview before the election. He described how businesses near Corporation Road and Penarth Road routinely clean up overflowing bins and unspeakable messes, lamenting that, "People don’t want it, people don’t accept it, but it’s almost become part of the landscape of Grangetown."
Youde also advocated for more robust traffic calming measures, citing residents’ longstanding calls for action and recent dramatic crashes in the area. His focus on hyper-local issues appeared to resonate with voters weary of the status quo. During the campaign, Grangetown was visited by high-profile Green Party figures, including Adrian Ramsay MP, co-leader of the Green Party of England and Wales, and Ellie Chowns, the MP for North Herefordshire, further boosting the party’s profile in the ward.
After the results were declared, Philip Davies, Wales Green Party’s deputy leader, took to social media to celebrate: "A huge congratulations to Matt Youde who will make a fantastic councillor. A huge thank you to everyone who came to help in the campaign. @WalesGreenParty beating Labour shows people want positive change not more of the same; roll on the Senedd election next year." The sense of momentum was palpable among Green supporters, who see the win as a springboard for further gains in the 2026 Welsh Parliament elections.
The response from Labour was measured but determined. Cardiff council’s Labour leader acknowledged the defeat, posting: "Not our day in Grangetown today. My congratulations to Matt Youde and the Greens for their win, and my thanks to our brilliant candidate Khurram Chowdhry, and all who supported us. We’ve lost by-elections before and have bounced back. We’ll reflect, learn, and come back stronger." Vale of Glamorgan Labour MP Kanishka Narayan, perhaps caught off guard by the upset, had earlier urged residents on social media to "Don’t forget to vote Labour in Grangetown tonight!" as polls remained open on election day.
Plaid Cymru’s Neil Roberts, who finished third, struck a positive note despite the loss: "Diolch Grangetown, We ran a positive, community-focused campaign that I’m immensely proud of. We increased our voterbase in Grangetown and have built a strong Plaid Cymru presence in the south of our capital city. Congratulations to Matt Youde from the Greens on his election. I still believe Plaid Cymru are the best party to put Wales first, but for now thank you Grangetown for your support."
Long-time observers of Welsh politics were quick to recognize the significance of the result. Welsh election analyst Lloyd Warburton noted, "The Greens have pulled off a shock result, as Matt Youde is elected as their first councillor in Cardiff. He is their ninth current councillor in Wales. This is (as far as I can tell) their first ever by-election win in Wales." That assessment underscores the scale of the upset, especially considering that Labour’s popularity has waned since the 2024 general election, making the loss a "serious blow" just nine months before the next Senedd vote.
For Labour, there was at least one silver lining: the much-hyped threat from Reform UK failed to materialize in Grangetown. Despite winning four council by-elections elsewhere in Wales, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has yet to claim a seat in Cardiff, and their candidate finished fourth with 13% of the vote. In the nearby Llamrumney election, Reform came second to Labour, but in Grangetown, the party’s impact was limited.
The ward’s diversity remains one of its defining features. According to the 2021 Census, Grangetown’s population is 54.16% White, 23.63% Asian or Asian British, 10.83% Black or Black British, and 11.38% from other ethnic backgrounds. This melting pot of communities has long made Grangetown a microcosm of modern Cardiff, and the by-election’s outcome may reflect shifting political attitudes among its residents.
Historically, the Green Party and Plaid Cymru had fielded joint candidates in Grangetown under the "Common Ground" ticket in both the 2022 and 2024 elections. This time, however, the Greens went it alone—and it paid off. The result has energized Green activists across Wales, who now see Cardiff as fertile ground for further electoral gains.
With the by-election now in the rearview mirror, all eyes turn to the Senedd election in May 2026. Will the Greens be able to build on their surprise victory? Can Labour regain its footing in a ward it once dominated? One thing is certain: Grangetown’s political future is far from settled, and the reverberations from this upset will be felt across Wales for months to come.
