Russia’s oil industry, a critical pillar of the nation’s economy and a major player in global energy markets, is experiencing one of its most turbulent periods in recent memory. In the wake of a series of targeted Ukrainian drone strikes, Rosneft’s Ryazan refinery—the country’s fourth-largest—has been forced to suspend crude processing, marking a significant blow to the sector’s infrastructure and output.
The Ryazan facility, located southeast of Moscow, has found itself repeatedly in the crosshairs throughout 2025. According to Reuters, the most recent attack over the weekend before November 18, 2025, resulted in the halting of its main crude distillation unit (CDU). Industry sources told Reuters that the plant is now expected to remain idle until the end of November, with no oil product loadings scheduled before December 1.
While the full extent of the damage remains unclear, the pattern of disruption is unmistakable. The Ryazan refinery, operated by oil giant Rosneft, is capable of processing more than 260,000 barrels of crude per day—about 5% of Russia’s total refining capacity. This isn’t the first time the plant has been hit. At the end of October, another CDU at Ryazan was struck, knocking out 80,000 barrels per day of refining capacity, which amounts to roughly a quarter of the plant’s total output. Repairs on that unit are still ongoing, and now, with the latest attack, other units have also been idled. Whether all the units have sustained direct damage from Ukrainian drones is still a matter of speculation among industry insiders.
On Saturday, November 15, Pavel Malkov, the governor of the Ryazan region, confirmed via his Telegram channel that “debris from downed drones caused a fire at one of the industry facilities.” Although he stopped short of naming the Ryazan refinery directly, the implication was clear to market watchers and locals alike. The incident underscores the growing threat posed by Ukraine’s evolving drone strategy, which has shifted from sporadic attacks on storage tanks to more sophisticated strikes on refinery equipment—particularly hard-to-replace units built with Western technology now subject to international sanctions. The Center for European Policy Analysis, as cited by Oilprice.com, has noted this strategic escalation, highlighting a move toward targeting the very heart of Russia’s refining capability.
The Ryazan stoppage is not an isolated event. Ukraine’s campaign against Russian energy infrastructure has intensified in recent months, with drone and missile attacks now regularly targeting not only refineries but also oil depots and export terminals. The repercussions have rippled far beyond the Ryazan region. Early on Friday, November 15, Ukrainian forces launched a major attack on the key Russian oil port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, forcing the port to suspend oil exports for several days. These disruptions, as reported by Oilprice.com, have added to mounting pressure on Russia’s ability to maintain steady crude shipments to international markets.
The impact of these attacks is already being felt in the numbers. According to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, Russia shipped just 3.36 million barrels of crude oil per day in the four weeks leading up to November 16, 2025. That’s the smallest volume since August and marks the fourth consecutive week of declining seaborne crude shipments. The consequences for the Russian state’s finances are severe: the slump in both oil shipments and prices has shrunk Kremlin revenues to about $1.2 billion per week, the lowest level seen in two and a half years.
This dip in revenue comes at a particularly inopportune time for Russia, as international sanctions continue to bite and the costs of the ongoing conflict with Ukraine mount. The loss of refining capacity at Ryazan and other facilities only exacerbates the challenge, reducing the amount of crude that can be processed domestically and limiting Russia’s ability to meet both internal demand and export commitments.
Market dynamics west of the Suez Canal are also shifting in response to these disruptions. On November 18, 2025, market commentary from Quantum Commodity Intelligence highlighted that Light Straight-run Gas Oil (LSGO) cracks—a measure of the profitability of refining crude into diesel and related products—soared to $40 per barrel. The commentary directly attributed this spike to the attacks on Rosneft’s refineries, underscoring how supply shocks in Russia are reverberating through global oil product markets. The resulting volatility in price spreads has traders and analysts alike scrambling to reassess their forecasts for the coming months.
For Ukraine, the intensified focus on Russia’s energy infrastructure represents an escalation in the war’s broader strategic landscape. By targeting not just military assets but also critical economic infrastructure, Ukrainian forces are aiming to undermine Russia’s capacity to finance and sustain its war effort. The shift toward attacking “hard-to-replace refinery equipment,” as the Center for European Policy Analysis put it, is particularly significant. Much of this equipment is Western-made and now difficult for Russia to replace due to sanctions, making each successful strike far more damaging than a simple fire or temporary shutdown.
Yet, these attacks are not without risk. Russia has responded by escalating its own campaign against Ukraine’s gas production facilities and power distribution networks, especially as winter sets in and energy demand spikes. The tit-for-tat strikes have created a dangerous feedback loop, with each side seeking to cripple the other’s ability to wage war by targeting essential infrastructure. As temperatures drop, the stakes for civilians on both sides are only growing.
Industry observers are watching closely to see how long Russia can sustain these losses. The Ryazan refinery alone accounts for a significant chunk of the nation’s refining capacity, and its prolonged shutdown will have ripple effects throughout the supply chain. With no oil product loadings planned before December 1, and the fate of damaged units still uncertain, there’s little doubt that the coming weeks will be challenging for Russian oil producers and exporters.
Meanwhile, global markets continue to react to the uncertainty. The surge in LSGO cracks is just one sign of how interconnected the world’s energy systems have become. As attacks on Russian infrastructure intensify, the potential for further price shocks and supply disruptions grows. For consumers and businesses alike, the fallout from the Ryazan refinery shutdown and the broader campaign against Russian energy assets may be felt at the pump and in energy bills around the world.
As the conflict grinds on, the battle over energy infrastructure is shaping up to be one of its defining fronts. With each new strike, the risks—and the repercussions—grow, leaving the world to wonder just how much more the global oil market can absorb before the next big shock hits.
