Tuesday night at Dodger Stadium brings a high-stakes showdown as the reigning World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers welcome the surprise Cincinnati Reds for Game 1 of the National League Wild Card Series. It’s a best-of-three set, and while the Dodgers are no strangers to October pressure, the Reds are embracing the underdog role after clinching the final playoff berth in dramatic fashion on the season’s last day.
For the Dodgers, the path to this moment has been marked by dominance and resilience. They finished the regular season with a 93-69 record, securing the No. 3 seed in the National League and capturing the NL West for the 12th time in 13 years. Their lineup boasts superstars like Shohei Ohtani, who smashed a franchise-record 55 home runs, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman—names that strike fear into any pitching staff. The Dodgers’ offense was relentless, ranking second in the majors with 244 home runs, trailing only the Yankees.
On the mound, Los Angeles looks nearly unbeatable. Their September surge was powered by a starting rotation that posted a 1.56 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over the final 20 games. Blake Snell, the two-time Cy Young Award winner, headlines the playoff rotation and will get the nod for Game 1. Snell’s home numbers are staggering: a 1.17 ERA in seven starts at Dodger Stadium, 48 strikeouts in 38 1/3 innings, and just a single home run allowed all year at Chavez Ravine. After missing time with left-shoulder inflammation, Snell returned in peak form, posting a 2.53 ERA and 63 strikeouts in 46 1/3 innings since coming off the injured list. His playoff pedigree is proven, too—he’s 4-3 with a 3.33 ERA in 12 career postseason appearances, including a memorable 2-0 run for the Padres in 2022.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the Dodgers’ Game 2 starter, is fresh off a 12-8 season with a 2.48 ERA and 0.99 WHIP, becoming the first Dodger since Walker Buehler in 2021 to notch over 200 strikeouts. Yamamoto dominated the Reds in July, tossing seven innings of one-run, four-hit ball with nine punchouts in Cincinnati. If the series goes the distance, Shohei Ohtani—who hasn’t allowed a run in his last 19 2/3 innings and just eight hits in his past 14 2/3—could make his first postseason start on the mound in Game 3.
But let’s not count out the Reds, who finished 83-79 and grabbed the third wild card slot with an 8-3 run to close the season. Their reward? A date with one of baseball’s most fearsome teams. Still, Cincinnati’s journey here is a testament to grit and youthful energy. This marks their first postseason appearance since 2020 and only their second playoff meeting with the Dodgers—the first was back in 1995, when they swept Los Angeles in the NLDS.
Cincinnati’s pitching, especially the young rotation, is their calling card. Andrew Abbott led the staff with a 2.87 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over 29 starts, while Hunter Greene, the hard-throwing righty, gets the Game 1 assignment. Greene compiled a 7-4 record with a 2.76 ERA and 132 strikeouts in 107 2/3 innings this year. He finished September strong, going 2-0 with a 2.64 ERA. But Greene’s postseason debut comes with a twist: he’s a local, having attended Notre Dame High School just 22 miles from Dodger Stadium. In five career starts against the Dodgers, Greene is 1-3 with a 4.55 ERA, and his last trip to L.A. saw him surrender five runs (three earned) and two homers to Andy Pages in a 7-0 loss.
The Reds’ offense, on the other hand, has struggled. They ranked 23rd in road OPS, 24th since the All-Star break, and 25th against left-handed pitching. In September, Cincinnati scored just 105 runs in 25 games—20th in MLB. Yet, they managed to edge the Mets for the final postseason spot, thanks in part to a stabilizing bullpen and Greene’s ability to rack up strikeouts, including a recent complete-game shutout against the Cubs.
Recent history between these teams tilts heavily in the Dodgers’ favor. Los Angeles went 5-1 against Cincinnati in the regular season, including a sweep at Dodger Stadium in late August by scores of 7-0, 6-3, and 5-1. The Dodgers outscored the Reds 30-15 and posted a robust .264/.345/.433/.778 slash line in those games. Their starting pitchers held Cincinnati to a 2.61 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 31 innings. From September 7 onward, the Dodgers’ offense was electric—batting .259 with an .801 OPS, 111 runs, 38 home runs, and a .480 slugging percentage, all among the best in baseball.
For the Reds, the final stretch saw them score 72 runs over their last 20 games, with a .663 OPS (21st in MLB). Their starters posted a 3.52 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, good for fourth in the majors during that period. Abbott started just days before the series, so Greene is well-rested for the opener.
Game 1’s pitching matchup is a study in contrasts: Snell’s playoff experience and home dominance versus Greene’s electric arm and local ties, but also his struggles on the road—a 4.81 ERA away from Cincinnati compared to 1.58 at home. The Dodgers’ lineup has historically feasted on Greene, hitting .294 with five home runs and an .867 OPS against him.
Projections and oddsmakers give the Dodgers a clear edge, but there’s intrigue in the details. According to SportsLine’s model, Cincinnati wins in 41% of simulations and covers the +1.5 run line 65% of the time, with the Over 7 runs hitting in 60.1% of scenarios. The projected score? Dodgers 4.8, Reds 4.2. Player props favor Ohtani (+186) to homer, with Max Muncy, Freddie Freeman, and Teoscar Hernandez also among the favorites.
What’s at stake? The winner of this Wild Card Series advances to face the Philadelphia Phillies in the Division Series, with Game 1 set for Saturday, October 4, in Philadelphia. If the Dodgers sweep, Ohtani is expected to take the mound to open that series. But with the Reds’ young arms and the unpredictability of October baseball, anything can happen—especially with Greene’s strikeout upside and a bullpen that’s steadied down the stretch.
As the crowd in Chavez Ravine settles in for first pitch at 9:08 p.m. ET, all eyes are on whether the Dodgers’ firepower will overwhelm the upstart Reds, or if Cincinnati can pull off a postseason shocker. One thing’s certain: the action is just getting started, and both teams know that in October, every pitch counts.
