As the world moves deeper into the autumn of 2025, the landscape of infectious disease is shifting—sometimes rapidly, sometimes with unnerving calm—across continents. In the United States, COVID-19’s latest surge appears to be ebbing, while in Malaysia, a perfect storm of flu outbreaks and a new COVID-19 variant is testing the limits of public health preparedness. These developments, though separated by thousands of miles, reflect a global pattern: the uneasy return of seasonal viruses after years of pandemic disruption, and the ongoing challenge of keeping surveillance systems robust in the face of political and logistical hurdles.
For Americans, the most immediate concern is the current state of COVID-19 tracking. As of October 14, 2025, national COVID-19 trends data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) are largely unavailable. The culprit? The ongoing federal government shutdown, which has left public health officials and the general public grasping for reliable numbers. Out of the four main metrics the CDC typically updates, only one—SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater—was refreshed in the last week, according to WastewaterSCAN, an independent surveillance network. Their findings offer some relief: between September 24 and October 1, SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in wastewater fell by 28%, placing the national trend at a “medium” level.
This drop is more than just a statistical blip. WastewaterSCAN’s data shows that the national average for SARS-CoV-2 has plummeted to less than a third of what it was during the summer surge’s peak in early September, approaching the moderate levels reported between waves this past spring. It’s a similar story in healthcare claims: the Yale PopHIVE dashboard reports declining COVID-19 spread in recent weeks. (Biobot Analytics, another key player in wastewater surveillance, has yet to post a report for this week.)
Regional numbers echo this downward trend. In California, SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater are now considered “low.” Texas has seen a steady drop in emergency department visits for COVID-19 over the past month, and Hawaii’s COVID-19 emergency visits and test positivity rates are at their lowest in six months. Still, not every region is breathing easy. According to Outbreak Outlook, a newsletter helmed by epidemiologist Caitlin Rivers, some Northeastern states are showing signs of plateau or even uptick: emergency department visits in Connecticut have stabilized rather than declined, Essex Junction in Vermont is seeing increased SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater, and one of Boston’s sewersheds has hit a plateau. New York State, meanwhile, is flying somewhat blind due to a laboratory transition that has limited wastewater data collection.
Across the Atlantic, the picture is less reassuring. Some European countries are already grappling with their fall and winter COVID-19 waves. Pharmacies in France are experiencing a shortage of rapid tests as demand skyrockets, and the U.K.’s health statistics agency is reporting sharp increases in both COVID-19 and flu cases. The ripple effect of these outbreaks could easily extend elsewhere as respiratory virus season gets underway.
All of this is happening as the U.S. faces a significant internal challenge: the CDC’s workforce is shrinking. Layoffs—some possibly reversed after initial confusion—are “a massacre,” as one laid-off CDC official told STAT. The result is a battered surveillance capability, just as the nation readies itself for the dual threats of COVID-19 and other respiratory diseases like flu and RSV. The timing couldn’t be worse, and the uncertainty about which divisions are affected only adds to the anxiety among public health experts and the public alike.
Meanwhile, in Malaysia, a different but equally troubling scenario is playing out. As of mid-October 2025, nearly 6,000 students—especially in the state of Selangor—have been infected with flu-like symptoms, including fever, sore throat, and fatigue. These are classic signs of influenza A and B, and the spread has been so swift that local health authorities have advised several schools to close temporarily and enforce a five- to seven-day self-quarantine for infected pupils. District health teams have been conducting sanitization drives, encouraging mask-wearing, and urging schools to limit group gatherings—measures reminiscent of the not-so-distant pandemic years.
The outbreak’s timing is particularly fraught, with around 400,000 students set to take the Sijil Pelajaran Malaysia (SPM) exam in early November. The exam is a pivotal moment for university admissions, and the prospect of disruptions has left both families and officials on edge. Authorities are trying to balance public health with academic futures, ensuring exam boards are prepared for potential interruptions if the crisis persists.
But it’s not just the flu that’s causing concern. A new COVID-19 variant, known as XFG, is now on the radar. First detected in India in June 2025, XFG accounts for over 8% of Malaysia’s COVID-19 cases and has been classified by the World Health Organization as a “variant under monitoring,” thanks to its high transmissibility and potential to evade immune responses. In response, Malaysian health authorities have intensified genomic surveillance and reissued preventive guidelines to schools, putting a premium on proper ventilation and routine sanitization. Although COVID-19 cases in Malaysia have declined by nearly 50% compared to last year, officials are not letting their guard down.
Experts point to a broader, more insidious trend: the world’s gradual return to seasonal infections that had been suppressed during the height of the pandemic by mask mandates and restricted movement. Years of isolation may have lowered collective immunity, especially among children, making them more susceptible to viral resurgences. It’s a phenomenon being observed not just in Malaysia, but globally, as communities adjust to a new normal where old viruses reclaim lost ground.
The Malaysian Director-General of Health, Mohd Azam Ahmad, has emphasized that the country’s prior experience with COVID-19 has strengthened its preparedness. “We are fully aware of the risks, and our guidelines are designed to protect students and the public,” he stated, underscoring the importance of vigilance even as case numbers fall.
In both the U.S. and Malaysia, the message is clear: while the immediate threat of COVID-19 may be receding in some places, the battle against infectious diseases is far from over. The interplay of waning immunity, new variants, and strained public health infrastructure means that vigilance and adaptability remain the order of the day. As the world braces for another winter of respiratory viruses, the lessons of the past five years are being put to the test—again.
With case numbers fluctuating and new threats emerging, the coming months will demand resilience, clear communication, and a willingness to adapt. For now, the world watches and waits, hoping that science, policy, and community action can keep the worst at bay.
