President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine recently unveiled his highly anticipated "victory plan" aimed at bringing the war with Russia to a resolution. Addressing members of Ukraine's parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, on October 16, 2024, Zelensky asserted the plan's potential to end the conflict possibly by next year. This ambitious five-point proposal centers around enhancing Ukraine's military capabilities, seeking NATO membership, and, most critically, securing overwhelming support from Western allies.
The first key point of Zelensky's plan calls for Ukraine to receive "an unconditional invitation" to join NATO. Although Ukraine submitted its application for NATO membership back in September 2022, the process has been stalled due to the war. Zelensky emphasized the need for formal acknowledgment of Ukraine's place within the security framework of Europe. “NATO membership is still far off, but immediate steps should reflect our strategic importance,” he noted.
Zelensky views this step not just as aspirational but as necessary to send a stern message to Russian President Vladimir Putin, illustrating the futility of his aggression. According to Zelensky, providing Ukraine with NATO membership would demonstrate to Putin the error of his geopolitical assumptions, thereby pressing the Kremlin toward peace talks. “We are a democratic nation proving we can protect our shared principles,” he articulated.
The second aspect of the plan focuses on strengthening Ukraine's defenses. This includes lifting restrictions on the use of long-range weapons supplied by Western allies. Zelensky insisted on allowing the Ukrainian military to target locations within Russian territory directly, which he believes will help shift Russian public perception about the war. “Russians need to feel the reality of war so they can redirect their anger toward the Kremlin,” he said.
The third point dives deep, proposing the establishment of non-nuclear deterrence measures to safeguard Ukraine against any future aggression. Part of this proposal remains classified but has been communicated to leaders of key nations, including the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Italy. Zelensky remarked, “The Russian leadership only acts aggressively when it knows there will be no serious consequences for its actions.”
Moving to economic matters, the fourth element of Zelensky's strategy emphasizes the exploitation of Ukraine's natural resources like uranium, lithium, and titanium. These resources have significant potential not only for Ukraine's economy but also for European partners. Zelensky has called for joint investment agreements with the European Union and the United States, alongside increased international sanctions against Russia to undermine its war-making capabilities.
Finally, Zelensky's proposed post-war security architecture includes integrating Ukrainian forces within NATO and considers how Ukraine's military might replace some U.S. military contingents stationed across Europe after the war. This idea stems from the notion of transforming Ukraine's military experience during the war to bolster NATO’s collective security.
Zelensky's plan has already gained some attention from the international community, as he recently concluded visits to several European capitals to garner support. Despite the ambitious nature of the plan, skepticism exists. Russian officials, for example, dismissed it as “ephemeral,” with Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov asserting the plan merely reflects Western objectives to prolong the conflict.
“What Ukraine needs to realize is the futility of its current policy,” Peskov said during his comments on the plan. With the Kremlin labeled by Zelensky as having formed a "coalition of criminals" alongside countries like North Korea and Iran, the Ukrainian leader continues to pressure his allies for immediate and unwavering support, asserting, “If we unite, we can dismantle the Kremlin’s ambitions.”
The significance of Zelensky's plan is manifold. Analysts suggest it frames the narrative of resistance and determination among the Ukrainian populace against Russian aggression, promoting the idea of fighting for both self-determination and territorial integrity. The Ukrainian public has largely reacted positively, with citizens like Anatoly expressing hope for NATO membership and increased assistance from the West.
Zelensky's determination to reject any possibility of compromising Ukraine's borders remains central to this discourse. During his address, he firmly stated, "There should be no hesitation about Ukrainian sovereignty.” The plan has been positioned as not just military and political strategy but as Ukraine's moral and existential stand against oppression.
The plan was also shared recently with key figures such as U.S. President Joe Biden and presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, aiming to solidify military and financial commitment to Ukraine’s cause. While Biden has expressed continued support, analysts caution against assuming guarantees, especially with the approaching U.S. presidential elections.
Before tackling the European summit, where Zelensky plans to formally present the "victory plan," he underscored the urgency of immediate action and reiterated, “If we begin moving according to this victory plan now, it’s possible to end the war next year.” His call to action reflects the dire situation as Ukrainians continue to endure hardships amid the conflict.
Despite the challenges faced, the spirit of resilience continues to underpin Zelensky's approach. With substantial military aid from the West still flowing to Ukraine, he clings to the belief of achieving victory as Ukraine seeks to hold onto its sovereignty, bringing the war to Russia itself rather than seeing its territory subjugated.
Overall, Ukraine’s path forward remains fraught with obstacles, but Zelensky’s comprehensive plan aims to galvanize international support and reframe the narrative of Ukraine's struggle against Russian aggression. The effects of this strategy will likely hinge on the responses it garners from both domestic and international players. “We must make sure this plan isn’t just words on paper,” Zelensky emphasized. “Its success fundamentally depends on the actions of our partners.”
