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17 October 2024

Zelensky Advocates For Victory Plan Amid NATO Hesitation

President seeks renewed military support and NATO membership as Ukraine faces intensified conflicts with Russia

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently put forth his ambitious "Victory Plan" during high-profile meetings with European leaders and NATO defense chiefs, aiming to rally support and define Ukraine’s path to ending the protracted conflict with Russia. This initiative reflects Ukraine’s strategic pivot as it battles not only for territorial integrity but for its long-term security alliances.

The plan, presented to the Ukrainian parliament before Zelensky's departure to Brussels, encompasses five public points and three confidential strategies. At its core lies the aspiration for Ukraine to be invited to join NATO, which would serve as both immediate security reassurance and as leverage for future peace negotiations with Russia. During his address, Zelensky underscored the urgency of bolstering Ukraine’s defensive capabilities and pursuing economic recovery amid the hostilities with Russia.

"If we start implementing this Victory Plan now, we may be able to end the war no later than next year," Zelensky remarked, appealing not only to lawmakers within Ukraine but to international allies as well. His plan includes enhancing Ukraine's military strength, adopting non-nuclear deterrent measures, and stimulating economic growth.

While the Victory Plan is intended to clarify Ukraine's objectives and signal its determination to its partners, the response from Western allies has been tepid. Many officials view the idea of NATO membership under current conditions as problematic, fearing it could commit them directly to the conflict. Zelensky’s pursuit of NATO membership aligns with Ukraine's long-held objective but faces skepticism, especially amid fears of entangling the U.S. and its allies more openly in the conflict.

During Zelensky's visit to the EU summit, which was organized at short notice, he pressed European leaders for additional military assistance and highlighted the dire predicament of Ukraine’s frontline soldiers as clashes have surged, with more than 160 reported skirmishes over just 24 hours. The urgency of Ukraine's need for aid and the growing instability created by Russian advances make the discussions surrounding the Victory Plan critically important.

Below the surface of these high-stakes negotiations lies the reality of public sentiment among NATO allies, some of whom are facing pressures to reassess their military contributions to Ukraine. Leaders like German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have been confronted with rising discontent within their constituencies who question prolonged military support as the war drags on.

At the heart of Zelensky's discussions with European leaders is the pressing need to shift Russia's calculations. He argued, "Russia will only turn to diplomacy when it recognizes its failure to achieve objectives through force." His hope is to transform military support for Ukraine from ad hoc assistance to systematic backing as part of the broader NATO coalition.

Recent months have seen Russia regain ground lost earlier this year, and as winter approaches with its potential for debilitating power shortages and diminished energy resources, Zelensky's push for the Victory Plan is as much about immediate defense as it is about preparing for long-term stability.

Among the plan's more controversial aspects is the insistence on developing Ukraine's capabilities to strike military targets deep within Russian territory. Zelensky expressed concerns over the hesitation among Western allies to lift restrictions on Ukraine's operational capabilities, indicating these constraints may hinder the potential to turn the tide against Russian invaders.

He firmly stated: "The invitation to NATO is not crossing any red lines. The real red line is posed by the aggressor, not by those who wish to defend their homeland." This bold assertion has found mixed reactions, from applause to stark warnings of the potential escalation of hostilities.

Despite the complex political and military backdrop accompanying the Victory Plan, there is also a sentiment growing among Ukraine's allies about maintaining unity against Russian aggression. Observers and officials alike understand the importance of sustaining support for Ukraine—both to preserve European security interests and to uphold principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Looking beyond immediate military needs, Zelensky’s Victory Plan aims to outline pragmatic steps for Ukraine's governance, focusing on reducing dependency on international aid by fostering self-sufficiency via economic plans and infrastructure resilience. He aims to position Ukraine not merely as a war-torn nation struggling for survival but as a formidable European partner with legitimate prospects for recovery and prosperity.

With these objectives laid out, the challenge remains whether Zelensky can persuade the hesitating allies and partners to genuinely commit to transforming words of support from the West—often accompanied by promises of aid—into tangible military capabilities on the ground.

The outcome of these discussions, particularly around the NATO invite and long-term military strategies, will shape not only the immediate future for Ukraine but also set the stage for broader geopolitical relations as the world continues to watch closely. The unflagging war, coupled with the strategic recalibrations by both Ukraine and its partners, holds significant consequences as European leaders weigh their options at this key junction.

If the Victory Plan takes root, the coming months could witness either the fortification of Ukraine’s military standing or the deepening of diplomatic divides, as Western nations grapple with their commitments amid rising fears of Russian aggression continuing to reshape security across Europe.

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