On February 27, 2025, the fluctuations of the yuan exchange rate against the ruble were notable, signaling significant shifts in the foreign exchange market. The Central Bank of Russia set the official yuan rate at 11.7370 rubles, slightly lower than the previous day, reflecting a drop of 6.32 kopecks. Meanwhile, during active trading hours, the yuan briefly surged to 12.039 rubles before stabilizing around 11.95 rubles—about 1.8% above the official rate.
Throughout the day, the ruble exhibited negative trends against major currencies, including the dollar and euro, primarily attributed to decreasing volumes of export revenue sales coinciding with the upcoming Unified Tax Payment due on February 28. By mid-afternoon, the yuan/ruble pair was trading near 12.04 at the Moscow Exchange, marking the ruble's depreciation.
Analyst Denis Popov from Promsvyazbank suggested the potential for the dollar to drop to 70-75 rubles based on geopolitical negotiations between Russia and the United States. He mentioned, "While the scenario of ruble strengthening to 70-75 rubles to the dollar is not currently considered base, it hinges on the substantial influx of foreign capital amid decreasing geopolitical risks." The current market sentiment favors investments in ruble assets due to expectations of geopolitical thawing.
Despite the recent ruble strength, other financial experts express skepticism. Analyst Mikhail Belyaev pointed out the speculative nature of ruble appreciation, clarifying, "Investor emotions dominate market dynamics, but the real exchange rate reflects underlying economic conditions." He expects the dollar to stabilize between 89-91 rubles, aligning with economic forecasts put forth by the Central Bank and the Ministry of Economic Development.
Echoing these sentiments, Alexei Primak, from the Institute of Financial and Investment Technology, stated, "I believe we'll settle around 90 rubles for the dollar as the pivot point, expected to hold steady for the coming months." Current course adjustments are being monitored closely following the recent highs for the ruble against the yuan, which saw significant gains throughout February.
Adding to the complex backdrop, the geopolitical commentary from U.S. President Donald Trump concerning aid to Ukraine and the lack of plans to ease sanctions brought additional market anxiety. He stressed, "I want to see if we can reach agreement before easing anything on sanctions," affecting investor confidence.
On the trading floor, the day began with the ruble maintaining strength, buoyed by seasonal increases from exporters selling currency to meet tax obligations. Notably, the anticipated Unified Tax Payments amounting to approximately 0.87 trillion rubles resulted from January's oil extraction taxes indicated expectations of increased export revenue, often tied to ruble transactions.
Despite recent ruble highs, fluctuations are expected to persist, particularly as market responses to geopolitical developments continue to shape trading dynamics. The currency market remains on edge, reflecting larger global economic uncertainties caused by pressures from sanctions and changing diplomatic relations.
Historically, February has shown resilience for the ruble, demonstrating the strongest strengthening the economy has seen since early 2022, largely due to hopes of de-escalation and improved relations between Russia and the U.S.
Currently, financial experts project the ruble might face downward correction following the completion of tax payments as market dynamics evolve. Bank of Saint Petersburg analysts commented, "After these tax immunities pass, the ruble is likely to test the 12 rubles per yuan threshold again, particularly with the market's focus shifting post-fiscal obligations."
Investors will continue to observe how geopolitical developments and domestic financial strategies influence the yuan's position against the ruble.