The 2024 U.S. presidential election is shaping up to be more than just your average political contest; it is poised to redefine how climate change factors influence voter behavior and candidate priorities. With Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump vying for the presidency, the stakes have never been higher for the planet, particularly as climate issues resonate powerfully among younger voters and other key demographics.
Recent polling indicates climate change has emerged as a pivotal issue for voters, especially among younger generations who have grown up witnessing firsthand the devastating effects of environmental degradation. A wave of college newspapers has reported on this phenomenon across battleground states, signaling the mobilization of young voters around the climate crisis.
According to reporting from Climate Power, college publications from institutions like Valdosta State University and Arizona State University suggest climate change is not merely a talking point but rather a serious concern for voters who feel the urgency of the issues first-hand. Students like Josh Laggis at ASU articulated the sentiment, stating, "When you think about it long-term, this is the world we’re growing up in, and our future generation is going to grow up in. It’s a very pivotal time."
Younger voters are increasingly recognizing the importance of their electoral power. With over 70,000 students on the ASU campus alone, those numbers could sway state election outcomes. Activists and voting advocates across campuses are echoing similar sentiments—this election could be termed "the election of our lifetime," particularly for issues like climate change. Eden Alem, from the University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire, emphasized, “It is not hyperbole to say this is the election of our lifetime. It is a climate election,” pointing out the choices young voters face between candidates with fundamentally different views on environmental policy.
Polling data corroborates this surge of eco-consciousness among Generation Z. A report by Pew Research indicates about 76% of Gen Z voters list climate change as one of their top concerns when casting their ballots. With over 8 million new voters having transitioned to eligibility since the 2022 midterm elections, many of them are focusing on candidates’ environmental platforms.
On the one hand, the Environmental Voter Project is attempting to mobilize climate-conscious individuals who traditionally abstain from voting, estimated to be around eight million across the country. They have mapped the climate voter demographics and identified key swing states where these individuals hold sway, such as Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina. Recent early voting statistics show over 45,000 first-time climate voters participating in Georgia alone, underscoring their potential impact.
But what exactly do these candidates propose? On one side, Biden’s administration—now represented by Harris—is known for passing major legislation like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), aiming to bolster clean energy initiatives and push forward decarbonization goals. Experts predict Harris will likely continue the Biden legacy, pressing for ambitious climate policies and investments.
Conversely, the Trump campaign presents starkly different climate priorities, having historically favored fossil fuels and expressed skepticism about climate change's urgency. Trump has hinted at rolling back much of the existing environmental regulations and has openly dismissed climate change, labeling it as hoax. This view contrasts sharply with the scientific consensus and the platforms offered by Harris and other Democrats.
The alarming reality of the changing climate—evidenced by destructive events such as hurricanes and wildfires—has spurred many to become more engaged politically. Bill Nye—affectionately known as "the science guy"—has lent his voice to the cause, urging young Americans to actively take part in the electoral process. His campaign encourages voters to be aware of candidates’ stances on environmental issues. Nye argues, “Vote with the climate in mind,” advocating for Harris, who asserts the climate crisis is one of existential importance.
Demographic shifts also add another layer of complexity to this election. Increased participation among Native American voters is significant, particularly since Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin are swing states. Indigenous voters have broadened their grassroots efforts, enhancing their influence over electoral outcomes. Interestingly, they have often aligned with Democratic candidates, historically impacting tight races such as the one between Trump and Biden, where mere thousands of votes decided the winner.
This growing coalition of Native American voters presents another front of engagement for the Harris campaign. Activists like Judith LeBlanc from the Native Organizers Alliance have pointed out the potential for Native voters to change the dynamic of the race, reflecting how concentrated electoral efforts can yield surprising results. Voter turnout among Native Americans saw remarkable gains during the 2020 election, and as activists rally voters once again, the significance of their involvement could pivot the scales once more.
Experts note, too, how climate issues connect to broader voter concerns. Kamala Harris’ willingness to prioritize climate solutions may resonate on other fronts, such as job creation and public health, appealing to various voter bases. Polling from 2020 suggests this alignment has the potential to mobilize first-time voters who see the climate crisis affecting their personal and economic futures.
Despite the rising profile of climate issues, the conversation remains uneven. Studies show climate-induced disasters—like heat waves and severe flooding—have yet to translate significantly to voter action. Political strategist Ben King highlighted recent surveys, stating, “The impact of climate change doesn’t seem to make much of an impact on how people vote.” Even as environmental groups like the League of Conservation Voters plan to spend over $155 million across various arms for the election, there’s concern if and how these investment strategies align with voter initiatives.
This trend of assessing the climate stakes reflects voters yearning for authenticity and accountability. With candidates above signing off on vague terms like “climate action,” voters are now demanding substantive plans aimed at addressing the climate crisis’s economic and social components.
Looking forward, the candidates' differing approaches to climate issues could set the tone for activism and policy-making for years to come. A consensus seems to emerge among experts: regardless of who wins, the climate issue is gaining visibility—and will likely play an even bigger role going forward. Activists remain hopeful as legislations will be challenged or enacted post-election, scholars predict potential shifts based on who retains Congress, and each demographic’s participation continues to evolve.
But for now, as the ballots are cast, the country awaits the decision of its electorate. The stakes have never been clearer; the direction of U.S. climate policy hangs intricately upon who sits at the helm of the presidency—and what actions they are willing to take to confront the existential crisis of climate change.
