XRP is once again capturing the attention of crypto enthusiasts and investors as it approaches potentially historic movements in both price and market positioning. From a powerful bullish technical pattern to a looming breakout against Bitcoin, and the rising probability of a U.S. ETF approval, XRP’s trajectory in 2025 is stirring excitement and caution in equal measure.
Crypto analyst EGRAG CRYPTO recently highlighted a significant technical signal on XRP’s weekly chart: a bullish crossover of the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) and the 55-week simple moving average (SMA). This crossover isn’t just any indicator; it has a storied history of coinciding with some of XRP’s most explosive rallies. Back in March 2017, the same crossover preceded a staggering 40,000% price surge, marking one of the most legendary runs in XRP’s history. Then, in August 2020, a similar setup led to a 750% rally. The latest crossover, confirmed in October 2024, has already fueled a 560% rally, hinting that a much larger upward move might be on the horizon if history repeats itself.
According to EGRAG’s chart analysis, XRP’s price could potentially reach between $9 and $24, depending on the strength of this current cycle’s momentum. This optimism is bolstered by rising on-chain activity and a more favorable regulatory outlook, which have helped renew bullish sentiment among investors. However, despite these promising signals, the broader altcoin market remains cautious. The Altcoin Season Index, a gauge measuring altcoin performance relative to Bitcoin, currently sits at 43 out of 100, indicating that Bitcoin still dominates the crypto landscape. Meanwhile, other altcoins like Sui (SUI) have seen recent gains, surging 14% to $4.26, and Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) is closely mirroring price behavior from its 2021 run, suggesting pockets of strength across the market.
Yet, the story isn’t all smooth sailing. Last week, XRP briefly touched $3.65 — its highest price in over seven years — only to sharply retrace by 15% down to $3.09, according to CoinGecko data. This pullback fits into a wider pattern of volatility affecting altcoins like Solana and Dogecoin, which also experienced declines. Katie Talati, research director at Arca, explained this phenomenon: “We observe very violent upward moves, which then lead to sharp corrections, a phenomenon less frequent in traditional markets.”
Interestingly, this price correction comes despite a macroeconomic environment that might have been expected to boost risky assets. The U.S. money supply (M2) hit a record $22.02 trillion in June 2025, up 4.5% year-on-year. Yet, the crypto market has struggled to capitalize on this liquidity, hampered by factors such as altcoin market exhaustion after rapid gains, profit-taking by investors following XRP’s peak, and anticipation of upcoming Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates.
Adding complexity to XRP’s outlook is the behavior of Ripple’s co-founder, Chris Larsen, who recently moved over $140 million worth of XRP to exchange platforms. This action has sparked debate: is it a savvy profit-taking move at the top of the rally, or a sign of caution among insiders about the sustainability of the current price surge?
Despite these mixed signals, XRP’s recent peak is more than just a technical milestone. Analysts like Matt Kreiser from Messari interpret it as validation of Ripple’s strategic approach. Kreiser notes that XRP missed the earlier 2021 bull run peak that many altcoins reached, so this new high could represent a catch-up fueled by Ripple’s efforts to build a blockchain compliant with regulatory frameworks. This regulatory progress has helped reduce perceived risks, especially after Ripple’s legal dispute with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was resolved, making XRP more attractive to retail investors who have long favored the token.
On another front, XRP is poised for a potentially transformative breakout against Bitcoin. For nearly eight years, XRP has been confined under a long-term descending resistance line in the XRP/BTC trading pair, a barrier that has frustrated investors since 2017. Crypto market expert Gordon pointed out on social media platform X that XRP/BTC is now approaching the upper boundary of a large Symmetrical Triangle pattern, suggesting an imminent breakout. Such a move could mark the end of XRP’s underperformance relative to Bitcoin and might trigger a broader revaluation of the token’s market position.
What makes this scenario even more compelling is that XRP’s rising momentum has so far occurred without the benefit of significant bullish news. The crypto community is eagerly awaiting official decisions on XRP Spot ETF approvals in the United States, which could act as a powerful catalyst for sustained price gains. Market expert Steph is Crypto recently shared data indicating that the probability of XRP securing a U.S. SEC ETF approval in 2025 has surged to 95%, placing XRP alongside Litecoin and Solana as front-runners in this race. Institutional interest is also growing, with asset managers such as Grayscale, Bitwise, 21Shares, WisdomTree, and Canary investing in crypto ETFs that include XRP.
Further cementing this trend, the SEC recently approved the conversion of the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund into an ETF. This fund includes major assets like XRP, Bitcoin (BTC), and Ethereum (ETH), signaling a broader regulatory acceptance of cryptocurrency investment products. Such developments may pave the way for increased institutional inflows and greater market stability.
Still, the path ahead remains uncertain. XRP’s technical strength and regulatory progress are tempered by market volatility and profit-taking pressures. The sharp pullbacks following rapid price rises remind investors that cryptocurrency markets can be unforgiving and unpredictable. Yet, the combination of historical technical patterns, regulatory clarity, and institutional interest sets the stage for a pivotal year for XRP.
In essence, XRP is navigating a complex crossroads. It carries the potential to break out of long-standing technical barriers and capitalize on a more favorable regulatory environment, but must also weather the inherent volatility and shifting investor sentiment that define the crypto space. Whether XRP can sustain its momentum and fulfill the promise of its bullish indicators remains to be seen, but for now, it stands as one of the most closely watched altcoins shaping the narrative of 2025’s crypto market.
