XRP's prospects of continuing its recovery from the April 7 low are fading, following the appearance of a bearish signal on its price chart. The fourth biggest cryptocurrency has made a remarkable effort over the past week to recover from the broader market downturn that occurred on April 7, when the price of XRP plummeted to a low of $1.6401, closing below the $2 mark for the first time since December 2024. Although XRP has recovered from this low, trading above the $2 mark, the latest signals indicate that the recovery may be losing steam.
On April 16, 2025, XRP’s chart displayed a rising wedge breakdown, a bearish pattern that often indicates potential trend reversal during an uptrend. This pattern forms through the convergence of two upward-sloping lines, ensuring that higher lows connect with higher highs. When the price drops below the lower trendline, it marks a shift from bullish to bearish momentum. The bearish momentum observed in XRP's chart suggests that buyers might be losing conviction in the asset, giving sellers more control over XRP.
According to veteran investor Thomas Bulkowski, who specializes in technical analysis, the starting point of the wedge serves as the initial support level following a breakdown. For XRP, this support level stands at $1.60, implying that the price could retest this level in another market downturn. Adding to the bearish sentiment, XRP has slipped below the Ichimoku cloud, a technical indicator that provides insights into an asset’s trend direction. When the price of an asset sits above the cloud, it indicates bullish momentum; however, dropping below the cloud, as XRP has done on its hourly chart, signifies a bearish trend.
As of now, XRP is trading at $2.07 after experiencing a slight dip of 0.60% over the past 24 hours. Despite this recent downturn, the coin is still up 3.81% over the past seven days. In a contrasting viewpoint, popular crypto educator Davinci Jeremie suggested that XRP could reach a target price of $24 this year. He believes that several U.S. officials are endorsing XRP, which could trigger a major rally toward this ambitious target. However, achieving the $24 target would require a staggering surge of 1,059% from the current price. Jeremie cautioned investors against buying XRP at this time, describing it as a ‘banker’s coin’ and advising them to sell their XRP for Bitcoin instead.
In addition to the bearish signals, Ripple made headlines on April 15, 2025, by announcing the integration of its RLUSD stablecoin into the Ripple Payments platform. This move aims to enhance institutional-grade stablecoin transactions. Despite the rollout of the RLUSD stablecoin, XRP’s price did not experience an immediate rally. Instead, XRP continues to trade within a bullish wedge pattern that has been in place since the start of the year. Currently, the price is testing the upper resistance trendline, and many are watching to see if XRP can break out and push past its cycle high.
Since reaching a cycle high of $3.40 on January 16, 2025, XRP has been trapped in a descending wedge pattern. This downward movement led to a low of $1.61 on April 7, causing a breakdown from the $2.05 horizontal support area. However, XRP bounced back, validating the wedge’s support trend line and moving above the $2.05 resistance area. Today, XRP is trading at the wedge’s resistance trend line, aiming for a breakout. If successful, the next resistance level would be at $2.55.
Yet, technical indicators do not confirm whether this breakout will be successful. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) are both increasing but remain below their bullish thresholds at 50 and 0, respectively. Therefore, the daily time frame alone cannot predict whether the XRP price will break out from its bullish pattern. The wave count suggests that XRP may not break out from the wedge on the first attempt. The price could be completing a five-wave decrease, leading to a wedge shape, indicating that another drop is likely.
If the wave count is accurate, XRP is nearing the top of wave four, after which another decline is expected. The most likely area for the end of the correction is at $1.53, which is both a horizontal and Fibonacci support level. However, if XRP breaks out from the wedge, it would invalidate this wave count, suggesting that XRP has completed its correction and may move to new highs.
Despite the recovery since April 7, reclaiming a previously lost horizontal support level and reaching the resistance trend line of a bullish pattern, the wave count suggests that the breakout attempt may be unsuccessful, with XRP potentially creating another low near $1.55. Nevertheless, the technical analysis does not confirm the direction of the future trend, meaning that both an XRP breakout and breakdown remain possible.
As the crypto market continues to evolve, the fate of XRP hangs in the balance, influenced by technical patterns and broader market sentiments. Investors are left to ponder whether the current bearish signals will dominate or if the anticipated bullish momentum will prevail, leading XRP on a journey toward its ambitious target price.
