The Xavier Musketeers are gearing up to face the Texas Longhorns in a pivotal First Four matchup of the NCAA Tournament on March 19, 2025. With tip-off scheduled for 9:10 p.m. ET at the UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio, this contest promises to be a thrilling battle between two equally matched teams.
Xavier enters this game with considerable momentum, having won seven of their last eight contests, including a strong finish in the Big East Tournament. Despite only one Quad 1 win this season, the Musketeers have solidified their place in the tournament with a record of 21-11. They come in as 2.5-point favorites against Texas, whose slightly less impressive 19-15 record features significant wins but also a history of inconsistency, particularly in high-pressure situations.
The Longhorns earned a place in this tournament by virtue of their performance in a challenging SEC, which has produced a high number of tournament teams this year but left Texas experiencing ups and downs throughout the season. Their entry into March Madness has caused debates around their capabilities, especially given their ranking of 350th in Rim & 3 Rate, as noted by ShotQuality, a statistic that reveals their struggle to get to the basket effectively.
Both teams come into this matchup with plenty to prove. For the Musketeers, a victory not only elevates them into the next round but also helps shift the narrative that they don't belong in the tournament. Coach Sean Miller's squad will rely heavily on their standout players, particularly Ryan Conwell. Having averaged 20.9 points in the past eight games, Conwell will be crucial for Xavier’s hopes of sealing a victory.
On the other hand, Texas will rely on their star freshman guard, Tre Johnson, who has shown the ability to dominate games and is a potential difference-maker in this matchup. He averaged an impressive 20.2 points per game during the SEC regular season, positioning him as one of the threats Xavier’s defense will need to neutralize. The ability for the Musketeers to contain Johnson can very well tilt the results in their favor, as they have struggled to defend against dynamic players throughout the season.
The game will see Xavier leveraging its home-court advantage as UD Arena is less than 50 miles from their base at the Cintas Center. Coach Miller confirmed he's confident in the support from the fans, saying, “When you give our fanbase the opportunity to get to our games, they'll find a way in.” Especially given Texas' poor 4-6 record on the road this season compared to Xavier's stellar 15-2 mark at home, the environment is expected to be electric.
However, Xavier's performance has not been without its faults. Throughout the season, they have demonstrated an inability to close out tight games, with a troubling 2-6 record against NCAA Tournament teams in games decided by fewer than 10 points. This trend has caused concern for their supporters, especially after they squandered a 14-point lead against Marquette in the Big East Tournament. They will need to clean up late-game strategies and reduce turnovers if they hope to emerge victorious against Texas.
In contrast, Texas must find a way to improve their efficiency at converting difficult shots into points, as their reliance on tough mid-range attempts has negatively impacted their scoring opportunities. This concern is compounded by their struggles drawing fouls, as they typically don't get to the charity stripe as often as needed. In a matchup where foul trouble can significantly impact the game, Texas scored low in key foul metrics, ranking poorly in turnover percentages and defensive fouls.
Ultimately, both teams are on the hunt for the win that secures not just a spot in the next round of the tournament but also the potential to capture the attention of college basketball fans nationwide. As the teams clash, the stakes are incredibly high: the victor will advance to face No. 6 Illinois in Milwaukee.
The oddsmakers have set the point total for the game at 151.5, reflecting expectations for a high-scoring affair given both teams’ reliance on perimeter shooting. Xavier currently ranks in the top 10 nationally for both three-point and free-throw percentages, which could become crucial if they find themselves in a tight contest.
As the clock ticks down towards tip-off, anticipation is building around whether Xavier can emerge victorious and get one step closer to proving their worth in the NCAA Tournament, while the Texas Longhorns hope to turn the tide from their prior postseason meetings with Xavier.
In latest betting developments, Xavier is receiving a majority of the public backing for this matchup. Opening at 1.5-point favorites, the line has expanded to 2.5 as the game approaches, indicating confidence in the Musketeers’ chances. The final prediction sees Xavier winning a tight battle 75-70, leveraging their recent form and support from the crowd as they look to advance in this year's tournament.
