After much anticipation, the UN climate conference known as COP29 has kicked off this week. This year, it's being held in Baku, Azerbaijan, from November 11 to 22. World leaders, including UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, are rushing to the summit as they face intense pressure to navigate challenging discussions surrounding climate finance and to ramp up their ambitions for reducing emissions. The backdrop of this year’s conference is marked by devastating weather patterns, like the recent floods experienced in Valencia and Hurricane Helene affecting regions of the US. Such extreme weather has been exacerbated by the relentless march of climate change, and analyses show they are more frequent and severe due to rising global temperatures.
The urgency of the situation is underscored by predictions indicating 2024 is on track to emerge as the warmest year on record. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has noted alarming temperature increases, making it increasingly clear why world leaders must act swiftly and decisively. With countries preparing to submit new climate action plans by early next year, the stakes are incredibly high; the United Nations is sounding the alarm about current policies falling drastically short of what is needed to prevent global temperatures from rising by three degrees Celsius—a scenario deemed catastrophic.
COP29 is being dubbed the 'finance COP,' emphasizing the importance of financing mechanisms to assist poorer nations grappling with the impact of climate change. Historically, wealthier countries have committed to contributing $100 billion annually to help developing countries adapt. Still, experts now assert this figure must increase—potentially hitting the $1 trillion mark by 2030—to genuinely address the issue.
Negotiations on funding are expected to be complicated, as there is considerable disagreement on fundamental aspects: the total funding required, donor countries' contributions, types of financing, and what specific projects should receive financial backing. The lack of consensus among nations could hinder efforts to tackle monumental challenges posed by climate change. Without successful agreements on funding, there's widespread concern about the world’s ability to manage its climate crises effectively.
During COP29, several nations are anticipated to present their updated national action plans to curtail emissions, also known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs). These plans must align with the 2015 Paris Agreement's goals, which aim to stave off the worst impacts of global warming. This year, the focus will be particularly strong on the level of ambition reflected within these NDCs, especially how they fold last year’s pivotal deal transitioning away from fossil fuels. The oil-rich host country, Azerbaijan, carries additional significance as observers will be watching closely how it handles discussions surrounding fossil fuel phase-out targets amid its resource-based economy.
Looking at the global climate narrative since the Paris Agreement adoption, there have been noteworthy developments. Nearly 200 countries have crafted their plans to reduce emissions, reflecting growing recognition of the climate emergency. Nevertheless, the UN warns the world continues to see greenhouse gas levels reach unprecedented heights. A recent report indicated the planet remains on track for alarming temperature increases, demonstrating how existing policies are inadequate.
The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency adds another layer of complexity to COP29 discussions. With Trump’s known skepticism about climate initiatives, analytics suggest his leadership could stifle global climate actions during negotiations. Commentators express concerns about his intentions to revive fossil fuel investments and withdraw the United States—from the Paris Agreement, which instituted significant commitments among participating countries. This possible regression from the U.S. complicates the capacity of international governments to reach consensus at COP29.
Helen Meech, from the Climate Coalition, emphasizes the need for international climate action, particularly with Trump's re-election looming large. She advocates for the UK to assert greater leadership on climate action. Meanwhile, Gareth Redmond-King of the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit argues UK officials must present ambitious national climate plans to showcase their dedication and encourage other nations to follow suit.
The coming days will reveal more on how world leaders approach climate discussions, particularly with respect to financing and emissions commitments. Amid the hurdles posed by political turbulence and differing priorities, these dialogues are more urgent than ever, signaling to the global community the importance of collaborative efforts to safeguard the planet.
All eyes will remain firmly fixed on COP29 as stakeholders await commitments and action plans, hoping not just for words, but decisive steps forward to combat climate change effectively. The stakes are incredibly high for vulnerable communities already feeling the effects of climate change today.
