Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky embarked on a high-stakes tour of the Baltic States this week, sounding the alarm that hesitation on Western aid for Ukraine is giving Russian President Vladimir Putin more motivation. In an unannounced visit to Lithuania's capital, Vilnius, Zelensky emphasized the urgent need for modern air-defense systems, stressing that Ukraine remains critically exposed nearly two years after Russia's initial invasion.
During his visit to Vilnius, the first stage of his tour which will also include stops in Latvia and Estonia, Zelensky insisted that Putin has no intention of stopping with Ukraine. "He wants to occupy us completely," said Zelensky. His stark warning was that "Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Moldova may be next" if the West continues to falter on providing support.
Zelensky's Baltic tour is his first official trip abroad in 2024 and comes at a time when aid to Ukraine is showing signs of decline. This drop in support has been most acutely felt in the air-defense domain, which Zelensky says is what's most urgently needed as Russian shelling intensifies. "In recent days, Russia hit Ukraine with a total of 500 devices: we destroyed 70 percent of them," he noted, highlighting the critical need for better defensive systems to fend off such attacks.
Pressure on the West has been building from various corners. Lithuania's President Gitanas Nausėda remains resolute in support, promising that Lithuania will "support Ukraine until victory." The Baltic state is expected to send M577 armored vehicles as part of a previously pledged 200-million-euro aid package. Lithuania is reportedly the largest donor to Ukraine in terms of GDP, followed closely by Estonia and Latvia, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
Estonia's commitment is underscored by statements from Prime Minister Kaja Kallas and Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna. They reiterated Estonia's pledge to allocate 0.25 percent of its GDP to Ukraine's military assistance over the next four years. Tsahkna noted that it is "way cheaper to support Ukraine now compared to the price the international community would have to pay if Russia would reach the goals of this merciless aggression." Latvia has also committed to continued military training and equipment, having trained around 3,000 Ukrainian troops last year alone.
The stakes couldn't be higher, and recent data illustrates a worrying trend. Aid promised to Ukraine between August and October 2023 fell by nearly 90 percent compared to the same period in 2022. The largest pending aid commitment—50 billion euros from the European Union—has been stalled by a veto from Hungary. Meanwhile, divisions within the U.S. Congress have hampered additional American support.
Zelensky's visit to the Baltics coincides with numerous geopolitical maneuvers that only add urgency to his mission. The ongoing conflict recently saw Ukraine retaliating with strikes on Russia's border city of Belgorod following intense Russian shelling. With air-defense systems highlighted as the top requirement, Zelensky continues his diplomatic push to emphasize the gravity of the situation.
The Baltic trip also includes a return to familiar territory. Zelensky was last in Vilnius for a NATO summit in July, where strong assertions of support for Kyiv came from Western leaders, including U.S. President Joe Biden. However, Zelensky's fresh appeal underscores a pressing need to convert verbal assurances into actionable aid, especially given the growing war fatigue observed among Western nations.
The dire warnings from Zelensky resonate beyond the Baltics and underscore broader concerns about regional security and the prospects for peace in Europe. As Zelensky noted, Putin's ambitions extend beyond Ukraine, aiming to destabilize the region further. "He won't finish this (war), until we all finish him together," urged Zelensky, framing the conflict as a wider European issue rather than just Ukraine's fight.
While support from the Baltic states remains robust, Zelensky's visit aimed to reignite momentum among other Western allies. Estonia's Prime Minister Kaja Kallas captured the mood succinctly, stating, "We must support Ukraine as long as it is needed. These are crucial times, and we need to keep our focus."
On the ground, the mood is just as resolute among Baltic leaders. Latvia's Defense Minister Andris Spruds emphasized the ongoing commitment to providing military equipment and training to Ukrainian forces, a sentiment echoed by other leaders in the region. This consistent backing underscores the shared history and geopolitical insecurities faced by these former Soviet republics now standing united in NATO and the EU.
As Zelensky continues his tour, the underlying message remains clear: the hesitation of Western powers emboldens Putin's aggression. The stakes, already high, keep escalating with each day. Without renewed and consistent support, the conflict risks spilling over Ukraine's borders, dragging more of Europe into its vortex.
Reflecting on this looming threat, Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna's remarks underscored a poignant truth: "It's way cheaper to support Ukraine now compared to the price the international community would have to pay if Russia would reach the goals of this merciless aggression." His words serve not just as a warning but as a call to action—an urgent reminder to the international community that wavering now could spell a much larger conflict down the line.
