With the holiday season fast approaching, many are starting to wonder whether they will wake up to a snowy Christmas morning or if they will have to settle for another rainy or slush-covered day. Across various regions, weather forecasts are slowly being released, creating both excitement and speculation about the potential for snow.
Recent reports indicate varying probabilities and predictions for regions across the United States, especially for traditional areas like Illinois, Washington D.C., Cincinnati, and Harrisburg where snow during Christmas can be both cherished and eagerly anticipated.
First, let's look at what is happening right here in Illinois. The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center has released its 8-14 day outlook, and unfortunately, for those dreaming of a white Christmas, it seems the chances are dwindling. While the greater Chicago area often experiences colder temperatures during this time of year, the latest outlook predicts temperatures leaning above average, coupled with below-normal precipitation. The situation suggests Chicago may not meet the classic white Christmas definition, which entails having at least one inch of snow on the ground on December 25th.
Historically, Chicago has had snow on Christmas about 41 percent of the time, with the snowiest recorded Christmas occurring as far back as 1950 when 5.1 inches of snow adorned the city. This year's warmth may thwart the hopes of many, as the city gears up for what will likely be balmy conditions leading right up to Christmas Day.
Switching gears to the Washington D.C. region, it's similar news. Even though anticipation builds every year for snow on Christmas, historical data shows the odds are stacked against D.C. residents. Since record-keeping began, measurable snow has only fallen on Christmas Day less than ten percent of the time. The last time significant snow was recorded on the holiday was all the way back in 2002, when only 0.2 inches made its appearance. Those who reminisce about the December 2009 blizzard which dropped 16.4 inches of snow on the city likely hold onto hopes for something similar, but this Christmas seems unlikely to repeat such magic.
According to the latest forecasts from the National Weather Service, expect normal to below normal temperatures across the eastern part of the country as December 25 gets closer. There is, nevertheless, hope on the horizon. Weather models suggest another blast of cold is expected to sweep through the Mid-Atlantic region just before Christmas, giving some reason to believe snow may finally hit the city, or at the very least provide cold enough conditions to potentially support snowfall.
Moving on to Cincinnati, the outlook is somewhat more promising, albeit cautiously optimistic. Though the Old Farmer's Almanac forecasts suggest snowfall levels may drop below normal for parts of the far eastern U.S., Cincinnati's most recent history shows it hasn't been too bad. Since the start of snow depth measurements, the city has recorded only 16 white Christmases. But the last one was just last year, when two inches of snow fell. The Old Farmer's Almanac is hinting at snow again this year, with predictions for the snowiest time being late December. So, there may yet be some hope for those dreaming of snowflakes swirling down on Christmas morning.
According to The Old Farmer's Almanac, the end of December may be the key period to watch for snow. So, what can residents expect? The two-month forecast for Cincinnati predicts December to experience some fluctuations, including “raindrops turning to snow” and then returning to warmer conditions before the end of the month. The majority of residents might be pleasantly surprised if they find themselves bundled up, sipping hot cocoa by Christmas, enjoying the snowfall they love.
Meanwhile, Harrisburg, Pennsylvania appears to be preparing for another lacking year of snow for Christmas. The outlook forecasted by AccuWeather predicts temperatures will hover around averages, but snowfall isn’t expected. It’s been since 2012 when Harrisburg last had a white Christmas. This year, the predicted high of 44°F and low of 32°F means any hopes for snow may become wishful thinking. Original analysis from the National Weather Service reveals the last five white Christmases for Harrisburg, with the nearest notable occurrence being nearly over a decade ago.
One interesting tidbit pointed out was the broad range of Christmas temperatures Harrisburg has experienced over the past century. The hottest read was back in 1889, hitting 66°F, and the coldest record was 7°F during the infamous cold snap of 1983. The shifty nature of weather patterns means temperatures and precipitation levels could still change significantly over the next few weeks as Christmas approaches.
Lastly, let's circle back to the UK, where the Met Office has also cautioned about making early predictions about snowfall. Their definition of a white Christmas is delightfully simple - just one observed flake falls during the day. With only 11% of the monitoring stations reporting such flurries last year, it remains uncertain what this season will yield. Snow settling is much less common, having been documented only four times since the 1980s. December 25 has shown to be perplexingly unpredictable. Recent predictions suggest spells of rain with possible hill snow up north for those wanting to see the classic snowy landscapes.
With several regions across the states and across the pond brimming with speculation about snow this Christmas, it’s clear the holiday isn’t quite coming wrapped with Christmas magic just yet. The atmosphere is still shifting, and weather models are still predicting surprises left and right, calling all weather enthusiasts to keep tuned. Snow lovers, even though this year hasn’t brought overwhelmingly positive signs toward white Christmases, the temperature patterns of December can be volatile. Any major weather event could potentially bring those sought-after snowflakes right when it is most anticipated.
So, here’s to hoping for winter wonderlands across the country as Christmas approaches. Whether it be light flurries or hefty blankets of snow, the important part of the season is the joy of being together and what we make of it, snow or no snow!
