The impact of wildfire smoke on solar energy production and resource availability across the United States is becoming increasingly relevant as climate change amplifies the occurrence of these fires. With the goal of boosting solar energy’s contribution to the nation’s electricity generation from the current 3% to 45% by 2050, it is imperative to understand how smoke influences solar power output.
This study, leveraging data from across the contiguous United States (CONUS) from 2006 to 2021, highlights the significant reductions to solar irradiance caused by wildfire smoke, which is particularly pronounced close to active fires. The research primarily examines two metrics: direct normal irradiance (DNI), which measures sunlight coming directly from the sun, and global horizontal irradiance (GHI), which considers the total sunlight received on a flat surface.
Through the analysis, substantial losses of DNI were observed, with reductions ranging from 32% to 42% during periods of intense localized smoke. This is certainly troubling for those relying on solar power, as DNI is pivotal for certain solar technologies like concentrating solar power (CSP). Conversely, when evaluating the impacts of transported smoke from fire locations, the study demonstrated minimal changes to GHI—less than 5%—across most of the CONUS, which is optimistic for future solar development.
The rationale supporting this investigation stemmed from the increasing frequency of wildfires correlated with climate change, which has extended wildfire seasons, resulted in larger burn areas, and intensified smoke emissions. The 2020 wildfire season, as one of the worst on record, illustrated how these fires can dramatically shift air quality and solar energy production capabilities. For example, previous studies showed declines of up to 34% output at certain solar photovoltaic (PV) facilities during extreme local wildfire events.
Methodologically, researchers employed radiative transfer models alongside satellite observations to quantify the differences in solar resource availability under various smoke conditions. This combination of modeling and direct satellite observation allowed for more accurate assessments of how smoke modifies DNI and GHI levels at state, regional, and national levels.
Notably, results indicated localized smoke could cause GHI reductions of up to 17%, significantly affecting areas near active wildfires, such as parts of California. The research highlighted how, during severe wildfire seasons, average GHI remains relatively high (>95%) across many regions, even when smoke frequency was at its peak. This finding fosters optimism, signaling potential resilience within the solar energy infrastructure against inter-annual variations caused by smoke.
Analyzing how these interactions might shape future solar development is also relevant. The research suggests transportation of smoke may be causing inconsistencies in local aerial irradiance levels but does not drastically alter resource availability on average. This is encouraging news for those invested in renewable energies, especially when paired with advancements in energy storage solutions, which can accommodate sudden fluctuations and provide greater grid stability.
With this increased wildfire activity expected to significantly shape the air quality future across the U.S., the findings assert the necessity of integrating more comprehensive aerosol parameters when predicting solar output. The knowledge gleaned from this study contributes critically to constructing reliable solar energy forecasts and plans amid increasingly volatile fire seasons.
Moving forward, these insights will aid policymakers and energy producers as they navigate the challenges posed by climate change and the pressing need to expand solar capabilities. The message is clear: Wildfire smoke can affect solar production, but its influence on average resource availability allows for cautious optimism as grid operators adapt to changing climate conditions.