The world is currently witnessing new export controls on quantum computers imposed by multiple nations, all while keeping the exact scientific justifications under wraps. This sudden move has left many industry professionals and experts scratching their heads.
Despite quantum computers having the theoretical potential to dismantle current encryption methods, none of the existing public models are advanced enough to pose this threat. The UK, for example, has restricted the export of quantum computers that possess 34 or more qubits with low error rates. Nonetheless, the UK government has not transparently communicated the reason behind these specific thresholds. A request for this information by New Scientist was denied on grounds of national security.
Following in the UK's footsteps, France, Spain, and the Netherlands have implemented similar restrictions. This uniformity led to speculation about a European Union-wide directive; however, the European Commission clarified that these measures were enacted at the national level. The convergence in these rules is attributed to multilateral negotiations over several years under the Wassenaar Arrangement, which seeks to control the export of dual-use technologies.
Though the restrictions are ostensibly based on scientific analyses, as stated by a French Embassy spokesperson, the specifics of these analyses remain undisclosed. This opaque approach has fueled curiosity and concern within the industry. The Wassenaar Arrangement, involving 42 countries including the EU members, the US, and Canada, governs the export of military and dual-use technologies. Canada, aligning with these controls, also adopted the 34-qubit threshold in its restrictions.
Responses from various Wassenaar states provided little clarity. The Swiss Federal Department of Economic Affairs, Education and Research mentioned existing mechanisms to control exports of sensitive technologies. A Belgian adviser to the EU's Working Party on Dual-Use Goods acknowledged that quantum computers could potentially crack encryption and enhance military strategies once they become more advanced.
Germany has yet to enforce similar restrictions but confirmed ongoing confidential negotiations under the Wassenaar Arrangement. Meanwhile, the quantum computing industry, represented by voices like Christopher Monroe, co-founder of IonQ, is left in the dark about the origin of these specific thresholds. Monroe suggested that the restrictions might relate to the challenge of simulating quantum computers on classical systems, conceding that despite this difficulty, such computers are not yet practically useful. He warned that overly stringent controls could hinder innovation in the field.
As quantum technology continues to evolve, balancing security concerns and scientific advancement remains a delicate act. The full implications of these export controls are yet to unfold, but the ongoing secrecy and lack of detailed rationale increase the dialogue around what future steps will look like.