The Western Australian Liberal Party, reeling from a series of electoral defeats, faces an uphill battle as it grapples with leadership changes and potential subpar election outcomes. The results of the latest election have raised significant concerns about the party's future and its ability to secure higher standing in the state's political landscape.
As recounts from the election bubble up, it has come to light that the WA Liberals had their hopes of attaining opposition party status severely dashed after a recount in Albany confirmed that the Nationals secured the seat over the previously contested Liberal candidate, Thomas Brough. With the current tally showing both the Nationals and Liberals gaining three extra seats each in the lower house, the race has descended into a battle for dominance and credibility.
According to multiple sources, the WA Liberals, under the direction of outgoing leader Libby Mettam, have been struggling to maintain a significant foothold. For them to attain opposition status, their candidate Adam Hort needs to win the Kalamunda seat. Currently, Hort holds a narrow lead over Labor's candidate, Karen Beale, by just 64 votes, making Kalamunda the most marginal seat in WA. A recount is expected due to the margin being under 100 votes, which has left party members crossing their fingers for favorable outcomes.
This comes after a week of turmoil, as Libby Mettam announced her resignation amidst complaints about the party’s direction and performance. Churchlands MP Basil Zempilas is primed to step into the leadership role, with his confirmation expected during the party's meeting next week on March 25. Zempilas, expressing hope about Hort's chances in Kalamunda, hinted at potential negotiations with the Nationals if their path to opposition does not pan out. “Now that’s not something that I would be fearful of, or would hold any great trepidation of,” he stated during an interview with the ABC. “I think we have seen, at times, a really strong working relationship between the Nationals and the Libs.”
The state’s evolving political landscape is a reflection of broad sentiments within the electorate—sentiments that have not favored the WA Liberals in light of recent voting patterns. The Nationals' candidate, Scott Leary, who previously ran for the Liberals in 2021 but was not selected during preselection ahead of the 2025 election, has highlighted a critical shift among voters who might have traditionally supported the Liberals. Leary noted that “there would have been some long-time Liberal voters who voted for the Nationals for the first time,” citing dissatisfaction with the recent pre-selection processes.
As the recount headlines play out, the WA Liberals are continuing to confront their past challenges. They are still smarting from three consecutive election defeats, with Zempilas being tagged as the party's only feasible leader amid the turmoil. His recent electoral performance has raised eyebrows, securing only a 0.5% increase in the primary vote. Notably, an independent candidate's significant inroads—taking away 14% of votes that could have bolstered Zempilas' position—demonstrates a deeper rift in the party's voter base. He now holds one of the lowest margins, sitting at 0.7%, making his seat a battleground of its own.
This history of strife within the party underscores Zempilas's uphill battle; although he has been an effective leader as Perth's Lord Mayor, making strides for local communities, translating those successes to a parliamentary setting may not be seamless. Political analysts and insiders recognize that being a competent opposition leader requires adept navigation of bureaucracy and operational intricacies that are often unforgiving to newcomers.
As the election results were filtering in, tensions between Zempilas and the Nationals floated to the surface, emblematic of two parties that have struggled to cooperate effectively in the past. In recent terms, the Nationals have sought to distance themselves from the Liberals during key negotiations, particularly regarding running joint tickets in the upper house. With a fractured relationship costing the party earlier options, the road ahead for Zempilas consists of not only securing necessary votes but also addressing potential avenues for successful inter-party relations.
With preference counting for the Kalamunda seat expected to resume on March 23, the WA Liberals are in a crucial position to evaluate their standing. As outgoing leader Libby Mettam transitioned responsibilities, internal and public discussions will scrutinize the party’s direction under Zempilas. “I accept the times it hasn’t been, from the outside looking in, quite as well functioning as it could be,” he commented on the relations with the Nationals, highlighting a potential key strategy going forward: an alliance.
If Zempilas can leverage their combined power to hold the government accountable, there may be hope for the Liberals to return to relevance. Yet challenges abound, and the test will be his capacity to construct a new narrative, reconsolidate support, and inspire confidence within the party while bringing long-lost voters back into the fold.
In the ever-evolving arena of politics, what lies ahead for the WA Liberals remains uncertain, resting squarely on Zempilas's shoulders to steer them towards a more favorable direction.
