The Vietnamese stock market has recently navigated through various challenges, showcasing the resilience of the VN-Index as it exceeds the psychological barrier of 1,300 points. This achievement has come amid varying investor sentiments, with many now taking profits after previous gains and the broader global economic climate influencing local conditions.
On the closing day of March 2, 2025, the VN-Index concluded at 1,305.36 points, representing an increase of 8.6 points or 0.7%. Trading activity also saw improvements, with average daily transaction values on HoSE reaching 17.4 trillion VND, signaling enhanced liquidity within the market.
Market analysts have expressed mixed feelings about the VN-Index's immediate future. Ngô Minh Đức, the founder of LCTV Investment Company, commented, "Market may continue oscillate around the 1,300 point range," noting the potential for investors to take profits as the index approaches its short-term peak. Though concerns about potential corrections exist, industry experts remain optimistic about Vietnam's long-term market growth.
Phan Dũng Khánh, the investment consultant at Maybank Investment Bank, highlighted the VN-Index's firm stance above 1,300 points, unlike fluctuations seen last year. He suggests there's potential to reach beyond 1,320 points as market momentum remains stable, driven by improved liquidity and investor confidence.
Despite the upward movement, analysts warn of increased selling pressure due to external economic factors and profit-taking behaviors within the trading community. Nguyễn Hồng Khanh, the Director of Analysis at VISE, pointed out, "The current investment climate reflects caution due to external pressures from global markets." This sentiment is echoed across the board as analysts forecast possible tremors from foreign capital outflows and global uncertainty.
Sector performance has also shown variance; the banking sector appears to have plateaued at favorable growth rates, potentially avoiding the volatile swings affecting other sectors. Trương Thái Đạt, Director of Analysis at DSC Securities, remains bullish, stating, "Positive long-term outlook with potential for the VN-Index to reach 1,400," citing macroeconomic stability as the key growth driver.
Looking at sector-specific movements, banking and real estate could play pivotal roles amid government initiatives aimed at increasing investment. Continued efforts to lift the market through public infrastructure spending are expected to translate to higher returns for these sectors.
There are additional factors contributing to market caution. For one, external market movements, primarily influenced by U.S. trade policy, impose risks on Vietnam's financial stability. The recent declaration by the U.S. government to increase tariffs on imports from China, as well as potential tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods, poses significant uncertainty. This could provoke responses from investors, leading to reallocation of funds to perceived safer assets such as gold and USD, away from the more volatile stocks.
Notably, foreign investors have continued to sell off holdings, with net outflows totaling 9.6 trillion VND across February. This consistent withdrawal is reflective of the apprehension surrounding geopolitical tensions and imminent economic risks. Nevertheless, the domestic investment community has shown potential adaptation strategies as newer opportunities attract interest within fluctuated climates.
Meanwhile, specific industry narratives have provided glimpses of recovery. Industries such as steel and energy have shown promising signals as they navigate gradual rebounds from earlier lows. These recoveries are expected to provide brief opportunities for investors seeking immediate gains. Investors are advised to capitalize on these incremental recoveries, as suggested by Đức: "This is the right time to realize profits and prepare for resumption during market corrections."
Overall, the Vietnamese stock market faces both trials and opportunities as it embarks on March 2025. The interplay of local confidence against external pressures presents both risks and openings. Analysts urge investors to maintain vigilance, preparing for shifts, yet embracing the longer-term movements expected to carry the VN-Index to even greater heights.
Moving forward, investors should evaluate their portfolios and be ready to capitalize on potential upward shifts without falling prey to the emotional swings conventional to stock trading. Proactive engagement, based on researched insights from market leaders, may yield favorable results as the market attempts to establish new norms above the 1,300-point threshold amid ever-changing dynamics.