Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to make his first trip to India since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war. Reports suggest he will attend the Indo-Russian Annual Summit, likely scheduled for the first week of December. The Kremin has indicated preparations for Putin's visit are already underway, and spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has confirmed this without disclosing specific dates, saying, “The dates will be mutually worked out soon.”
The anticipated summit symbolizes the continuing elevation of India and Russia’s relationship, which has recently been upgraded to the level of ‘Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership.’ This enhanced cooperation has led to substantial trade growth, with bilateral trade surpassing $65 billion during the fiscal year 2023-24.
The dynamic between the two nations hinges heavily on defense and energy cooperation. They have collaborated on various defense projects, including the development of the BrahMos missile system, the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft, and the licensed production of SU-30 fighter jets and T-90 tanks. With Putin's visit, additional agreements concerning banking and petroleum, alongside advancements on transport and defense projects, are expected to be finalized.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has recently made two visits to Russia, reinforcing the ties between the two countries. The last of these was for the BRICS summit held in Kazan, Russia, where both leaders engaged directly. Modi’s outreach signifies India's strong commitment to maintaining its relations with Moscow, especially against the backdrop of Western pressures following the Ukraine conflict.
While the impending summit is generating optimism about future agreements, uncertainty looms, primarily due to the unpredictable nature of the Russia-Ukraine situation. Sources indicate there’s potential for the visit to be postponed if the conflict escalates again.
Intriguingly, during the summit, Putin's status as the target of an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court (ICC) for alleged war crimes raises questions about international dynamics. The ICC issued these warrants against Putin and another official shortly after the conflict's inception, heightening scrutiny on his international movements.
Nonetheless, India has not ratified the Rome Statute, which governs the ICC, meaning Putin would not face arrest should he visit. For its part, India’s approach has been to abstain from criticising Russia at United Nations assemblies related to the Ukraine war, choosing instead to purchase oil from Russia—a decision generating considerable discontent among Western nations.
Looking forward to the summit, political analysts observe it as more than just another bilateral meeting; it’s also about reaffirming alliances amid shifting geopolitical landscapes. Especially with the recent tensions drawn from the West’s sanctions and diplomatic tactics against Russia, Putin's visit may be framed as a strategic move to strengthen ties with nations perceived as allies.
While details of the finalized dates are still pending, the upcoming summit is expected to cover not only economic negotiations but also broader discussions on regional security. The cooperative environment established by Modi's visits could underpin the agenda, focusing on mutual goals within the broader geopolitical narrative.
Both India and Russia share significant interests—ranging from combating terrorism to enhancing economic stability—which might be brought to the forefront during their discussions. Analysts speculate this summit will showcase each nation’s strategic priorities and commitment to shared goals, especially with the heightened stakes posed by Western interactions.
Overall, as the world watches, the December summit stands to solidify India's approach to its foreign relations, balancing engagement with Russia against pressures from Western powers due to the Ukrainian crisis. The outcome of this meeting could shape Indo-Russian relations for years to come and serve as a litmus test for the future of partnership against the backdrop of global tensions.
