As the November 4, 2025, Virginia gubernatorial election draws near, the Republican campaign faces mounting challenges that have alarmed party insiders and reshaped the political landscape in the state. Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, the Republican nominee, is struggling with fundraising deficits, internal campaign shake-ups, and a widening polling gap against her Democratic opponent, former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger.
Recent news coverage paints a grim picture for Earle-Sears’s campaign. Politico’s headline bluntly stated, "Republicans Are Panicking Over the Virginia Governor’s Race: The party is debating how much it can afford to spend on a losing proposition." Similarly, The Hill reported, "Virginia Republicans sound alarm over governor’s race: ‘It’s a disaster.’" These headlines reflect a growing consensus within the GOP that the race is slipping away unless dramatic changes occur.
A Virginia Republican operative, speaking anonymously, described the campaign as "a disaster," while a GOP strategist lamented the "lack of experience on Winsome’s campaign right now," noting that it feels "more like a safe-seat race than one where you have to bulldoze your way across the commonwealth to add to the coalition to win a very purple state." This sentiment is echoed by conservative talk show host John Fredericks, who called the campaign "a clown car" and "a dreadful operation," adding that it "frustrates everyone in Virginia." Fredericks further warned that Earle-Sears and her campaign have about two weeks to turn things around, as Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger continues to run a disciplined and well-funded campaign.
Fundraising disparities are stark. According to the Virginia Public Access Project, Spanberger has raised $27 million since November 2023, with more than $15 million cash on hand. In contrast, Earle-Sears has raised over $11 million, holding just over $4 million. Spanberger also outspends Sears significantly on digital advertising and emails—nine times more—while Sears has spent more on traditional TV and radio ads. Political analyst Larry Sabato from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics emphasized, "The fundamental problem is that Earle-Sears has not raised enough money." He noted, however, that Virginia’s lack of campaign expenditure limits offers Sears a chance to catch up if she can quickly boost fundraising.
The fundraising gap has repercussions beyond the gubernatorial race. Polling data from Virginia Commonwealth University shows Spanberger leading Earle-Sears 49% to 37%, with down-ballot races mirroring this trend. For example, in the lieutenant governor race, Democrat Ghazala Hashmi leads Republican John Reid by 46% to 36%, while Democrat Jay Jones leads incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares 47% to 38%. The last time Virginians split their ticket was in 2005, making significant ticket-splitting unlikely in the current polarized climate. This has led Republicans to focus on salvaging Miyares’s campaign, as he is seen as the strongest component of the GOP ticket, boasting nearly $7 million cash on hand—more than both gubernatorial candidates combined.
Internal turmoil has further complicated Earle-Sears’s campaign. In mid-July, campaign manager Will Archer was removed but remained with the campaign in a different capacity. Archer, a former pastor with limited political experience, was one of several staff changes that raised eyebrows among GOP strategists. The exit of political director Richard Wagner added to concerns about the campaign’s stability. One GOP strategist described these developments as emblematic of a team lacking the competitive edge needed for a tight race. Despite these setbacks, Virginia Republican Party Chair Mark Peake expressed optimism, stating, "We’re fixing it as we speak," and promised a shift toward a more public, media-responsive strategy with increased events.
Governor Glenn Youngkin, who is term-limited and preparing for a possible presidential bid, remains a key figure in the Republican effort. Although he has appeared with Earle-Sears on the campaign trail and introduced her to donors at the Republican Governors Association (RGA) summer fundraiser in Aspen, Colorado, his support has not translated into significant financial backing. The RGA has contributed only $500,000 to Earle-Sears’s campaign, a stark contrast to the $10.7 million it funneled into Youngkin’s 2021 campaign. Some leading Republicans express frustration with Youngkin for not infusing more personal or PAC money into the ticket and for endorsing Earle-Sears despite her known fundraising challenges and mercurial reputation.
Adding to the party’s woes, Earle-Sears’s reluctance to engage in fundraising calls and political outreach has been cited as a critical stumbling block. Multiple Republicans familiar with the campaign noted she has not reached out to reliable donors or key GOP figures such as Chris LaCivita, Trump’s campaign co-manager. Although Earle-Sears met privately with former President Donald Trump earlier this year, he has yet to endorse her, largely due to her public criticisms of him between his two terms.
Despite these obstacles, Earle-Sears has a history of pulling off political upsets. In 2001, she defeated a 20-year incumbent for a House of Delegates seat in Norfolk and won the lieutenant governor race in 2021 with an unconventional campaign. Sabato cautioned against counting her out, noting, "Where there’s life, there’s hope, where there’s campaign days still on the calendar, there’s hope." However, the clock is ticking, and the Republican campaign must act swiftly to narrow the fundraising and polling gaps.
The Republican Party is also grappling with the broader implications of losing the governorship. A loss could deepen their minority status in the House of Delegates and weaken their statewide influence. This has prompted early political triage efforts focused on protecting the attorney general’s race and House seats. Jason Miyares, who opted not to run for governor after Trump’s re-election in 2024, is seen as the party’s best chance to retain statewide office. His fundraising prowess and incumbency set him apart, with donors focusing resources on his campaign amid concerns about the top of the ticket.
In the meantime, Earle-Sears’s campaign has faced criticism for gaffes and off-message remarks. For example, she praised Trump’s controversial tax bill, describing it as doing "So Many Great Things," a statement that raised eyebrows given the bill’s unpopularity. She also expressed reluctance about conducting a summer bus tour, comments that the Spanberger campaign quickly seized upon, questioning her commitment to vigorous campaigning.
As the election approaches, the Republican Party’s challenges in Virginia serve as a microcosm of the difficulties facing the GOP in a state that has trended blue and where the party struggles to galvanize resources and enthusiasm. With Spanberger’s well-funded, disciplined campaign leading the way, and Earle-Sears’s campaign scrambling to regroup, the November election looks poised to be a significant test of Virginia’s political direction.
