Vietnam's economy is currently witnessing significant fluctuations influenced by various factors including currency dynamics and export performance. These shifts have prompted responses across different sectors, particularly banking and agriculture, affecting businesses and trade relationships.
On February 24, 2025, the State Bank of Vietnam raised the central exchange rate to 24,646 VND/USD, which marks an 8 VND increase from the previous week. This adjustment has put the trading range within the boundaries of +/-5%, placing the ceiling at 25,878 VND/USD and the floor at 23,414 VND/USD. Analysts note this rise reflects pressures stemming from the global trade war and inflation trends observed particularly in the United States.
Since the beginning of the year, the central exchange rate has experienced a notable increase of 311 VND for each USD. On the same day, commercial banks observed slight drops in their buy/sell rates for USD, with Vietcombank reporting buy rates of 25,280 VND/USD and sell rates of 25,670 VND/USD. This trend indicates significant fluctuations compared to earlier this year.
Meanwhile, Vietnamese exports are also feeling the heat. Reports show difficulties faced by the agricultural sector, particularly durian exports to China, which have seen a 40% reduction. On the other hand, Vietnam's tea exports managed to hold their ground, albeit with some declines. The Export-Import Department highlighted data from the General Department of Customs indicating Vietnam exported 9,700 tons of tea valued at 16.4 million USD in January 2025. This reflects decreases of 21.6% and 21.5% in volume and value respectively compared to January 2024, largely due to interruptions caused by the Lunar New Year holiday.
Pakistan remains Vietnam's largest tea export market, accounting for over 35% of total export volume, even though it too showed declines. The good news is the Vietnamese tea exports to Russia have soared, achieving growth of 19.2% in volume and 48.5% in value, with exports hitting 632 tons worth 1.2 million USD.
Despite facing price competition from countries like India and Sri Lanka, Vietnamese tea continues to benefit from stable supply lines and competitive pricing. Experts argue this sector will maintain positive growth trends over the coming years, projecting tea exports could rise to 136,500 tons by 2030.
To meet financial needs, VietinBank has introduced 99 guarantee packages aimed at businesses, which serve the dual purpose of saving time and cutting costs. Priced from just 10 million VND per package, these offerings aim to strengthen financial security for enterprises, allowing them to issue multiple guarantees within package limits at competitive rates. Businesses using more packages will benefit from reduced fees and extended financial advice, alongside waivers for issuance and bilingual guarantee letters over the next 24 months.
Overall, many factors currently shape Vietnam's economic outlook. Businesses may navigate the fluctuative currency markets and opportunities for growth within agricultural exports. The tea industry showcases potential for expansion as global demand grows amid increasing health awareness and diverse consumer preferences.
With the global tea market projected to reach 70.19 billion USD by 2028, Vietnam’s reputation as the world's fifth largest tea producer places it favorably to capitalize on these trends, especially with the rising popularity of premium tea products like organic and specialty blends. It remains to be seen how effectively these industries adapt to both local and international pressures, particularly involving currency stabilization and market demands.