Vietnam's commodity markets are bracing for fluctuation as both coffee and pepper prices are forecasted for March 2, 2025. The latest updates indicate mixed trends, with coffee prices showing signs of instability and pepper prices experiencing a slight rebound.
According to the latest information from Giacaphe.com, as of March 1, 2025, the Robusta coffee prices on the London exchange have seen notable declines. Prices went down by $46 to $61 per ton, with May 2025 delivery prices settling at $5,330 per ton, and prices for subsequent deliveries also reflecting downward trends. Notably, the prices for July and September deliveries are recorded at $5,290 and $5,228 respectively. Conversely, the Arabica coffee market on New York experienced minor fluctuations, with prices peaking and dipping around 342.00 to 379.05 cents per pound, representing delicate balance amid broader market forces.
Meanwhile, the domestic coffee market has also seen price adjustments. Reports suggest coffee prices across the Central Highlands dropped slightly by 500 đồng/kg, resulting in average prices hovering around 130,000 đồng/kg. Specifically, prices are noted at 130,000 đồng/kg for Đắk Lắk, 128,000 đồng/kg for Lâm Đồng, and 130,000 đồng/kg for Gia Lai. This reflects market corrections following earlier price hikes.
Experts predict relative stability for March 2, with forecasts indicating prices are likely to maintain between 128,000 and 130,000 đồng/kg. A spokesperson from Giacaphe.com remarked, "Prices are expected to stabilize between 128,000 - 130,000 đồng/kg depending on the locality, with short-term decreases anticipated due to high supply pressures." Overall, the potential of Robusta prices to decrease by about $100 to $150 per ton could loom over the market if demand does not rebound swiftly.
On the pepper front, price adjustments have been more favorable. Following previous declines, pepper prices have started to rebound, showing increases between 1,000 and 2,000 đồng/kg across various regions. The average purchase price for black pepper has reached around 158,000 đồng/kg, with notable rises reported from Đắk Nông and Bình Phước, where prices now stand at 159,000 and 158,000 đồng/kg respectively.
The Vietnam Pepper Association (VPSA) has indicated some challenges remain—specifically, delays due to adverse weather conditions impacting harvest schedules. "The import demand from the US, EU, and China remains subdued, partly due to depleted stockpiles from the previous harvest and delays of the new one," noted the VPSA. This could influence future price dynamics as Vietnam approaches its harvest season.
Recent market activity, reflected through the Ministry of Industry and Trade analyses, points to rising export prices, providing hope for local producers and signaling potentially favorable market conditions amid global fluctuations. Export prices for Vietnamese black pepper are pegged at approximately 6,900 USD/ton, with white pepper accumulating prices around 9,900 USD/ton.
The global market dynamics remain volatile. Reports from the International Pepper Community (IPC) highlight contrasting performance among exporting nations. For example, Indonesia's prices have seen declines; black pepper is quoted at 7,235 USD/ton, reflecting losses of up to $63 per ton, contrasting the unexpected increases from Malaysia, where prices surged by $200 per ton.
Forecasts suggest the pepper market will likely stabilize around these higher prices, with strategic moves on inventory management from local exporters to mitigate risks from overarching global trends expected to yield different impacts on the domestic market.
Looking forward, it is clear both coffee and pepper markets must navigate upcoming challenges tied to both climatic factors and global economic trends. With input from analysts and traders, farmers are advised to prepare for potential volatility, maintaining vigilance over price shifts as the year progresses. Both sectors, especially as the coffee harvest commences, could see significant impacts from foreign import interests, offering glimpse trajectories moving through 2025.