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U.S. News
26 December 2024

Vietnam's Birth Rate Hits Historic Low Amid Societal Changes

Economic pressures and changing family values lead to declining fertility rates and concern for the nation's future demographic stability.

Vietnam is currently grappling with its lowest birth rate on record, highlighting significant demographic shifts and concerns about the future. According to the General Department of Population under the Ministry of Health, the country's fertility rate dropped from 2.11 to 1.96 children per woman between 2021 and 2023—marking the historic low point. Experts warn this trend may continue, as various economic and social factors drive couples to reconsider the timing and number of children they wish to have.

With its population now at 100.3 million, Vietnam ranks third in Southeast Asia and 15th globally. While this growth has spurred urbanization and economic development, it has simultaneously led to signs of unsustainable birth rates, especially noted since the onset of rapid urbanization. Notably, areas such as the Southeast region exhibit alarming low fertility numbers, with just 1.47 children per woman, and the Mekong Delta at 1.54.

During discussions at recent forums, officials and academics underscored five main factors contributing to this demographic phenomenon. Lê Thanh Dũng, Director of the General Department of Population, articulated insights drawn from both international experiences and Vietnam's socioeconomic realities. One of the leading factors is improved living standards and education, leading many youthful couples to postpone marriage and childbirth as they pursue career advancements and lifestyle enhancements.

Economic anxiety plays its part too. With the cost of living soaring, from housing to childcare and education expenses, families are increasingly reconsidering having children. Dũng emphasized, "Many young families are weighing the high costs of raising children against their economic prospects, often leading to smaller families or the decision to remain childless."

The data presented also highlighted disparities between urban and rural birth rates. While the urban fertility rates are hovering between 1.7 and 1.8 children per woman, rural areas are not immune to declining rates, recording 2.07 children per woman as of 2023. Such data indicate significant changes and challenges faced by families across diverse economic backgrounds.

Dr. Trần Thị Minh Thi, Deputy Head at the Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences, noted these trends are compounded by shifts within family structures and roles. Although family and children remain core values of Vietnamese culture, the social fabric has started to change. She mentioned, "While Vietnamese people still cherish the idea of family, it is evident younger generations are more influenced by individualistic values found predominantly in urban settings. This often leads to delayed marriage and fewer children. We expect this number to fall to 1.91 children per woman by 2024 if current trends persist."

One concerning reality is the rising rate of divorce. Although the divorce rate remains lower when compared to other East Asian nations, it is climbing steadily. Many young couples are not only delaying childbirth but also altering their family planning strategies. Thi's commentary revealed contrasting expectations: “Many parents still want children, yet the immediate economic pressures and changing values about what constitutes family are pushing these desires aside.”

Through various seminars and roundtables, participants expressed not just the need for urgent action but also the assessment of policies currently affecting family planning. Currently, the Vietnamese government is reviewing its demographic policies. Acknowledging these broader societal changes, authorities are working to create frameworks to address replacement-level fertility by region and socioeconomic status. Dũng emphasized this mission: "The Ministry of Health is developing comprehensive demographic policies to maintain replacement-level fertility," indicating the government's seriousness about the issue.

Even with these measures, observers remain cautious. The significant generational gap impacts how families view employment and gender roles, with women stepping back from the workforce after COVID-19 pandemic shutdowns, reducing their participation from over 70% pre-pandemic to 63% by 2023. These figures signify broader societal shifts and perhaps even reflect regressive trends concerning gender roles within Vietnamese society.

Nonetheless, Vietnam's ability to retain relatively high marriage rates amid rising divorce figures is seen as encouraging. Compared to nations like Japan, South Korea, and China, where the correlation between declining marriage and increasing divorce has led to alarming demographic situations, Vietnam's demographic resilience appears notable.

Addressing these challenges requires vigilant strategies to not only adapt to changing dynamics but also promote stable family policies. Time will reveal how effectively Vietnam can navigate these waters, and whether the measures undertaken will suffice to restore or stabilize the nation’s fertility rates.

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