The Vietnamese stock market is showing signs of recovery as the VN-Index grapples with resistance at 1,290-1,300 points, which many investors believe could affect future trading activity. Recent trading sessions indicated potential adjustments, yet the overall tone among investors remains poised for growth as they await clearer trends.
For almost two weeks, the VN-Index has been hovering at upper levels, but liquidity has not been strong enough to suggest this threshold will be crossed without significant trading volume. Speculative investments have surged as investors have swiftly shifted from high-flying stocks to those regarded as undervalued, particularly small and medium-sized securities and real estate stocks.
On February 17, 2025, shares of VIX displayed remarkable volatility, climbing dramatically with nearly 90 million shares changing hands—four to five times the usual trading volume. This surge was due, handsomely, to VIX trading below book value, thereby attracting speculative interest.
Towards the latter half of the previous week, the market absorbed investor attention toward stocks showing signs of bottoming out, such as VHM and VRE. Other stocks, including HUT and REE, experienced similar trading surges or reached their peak trading limits with drastic turnover, indicating vigilant observation by investors toward technical signals.
A positive trend noted last week was the influx of investments in VPB stocks, which had been stagnant for much of the previous year. After previously receiving tepid interest notwithstanding positive news, the stock is again attracting substantial attention from investors eager about its growth story and potential mergers with smaller banks. Other banks with specific narratives about mergers and offerings have also piqued investor curiosity.
Market updates reflected investor optimism buoyed by clearer indicators of GDP growth targets for 2025 and beyond, alongside increasing lending growth and plans for elevatory measures within the stock market and real estate recovery strategy. While U.S. tariff policies once loomed as significant concerns hampering the market, steady domestic growth prospects have relativized those fears.
Currently, major investors are holding back and accumulating shares amid recent price recoveries of previously undervalued stocks. Stocks have seen price rebounds of several dozen percentages, yet investors are not rushing to cash out; rather, they are shifting toward accumulation modes.
Despite the weight of foreign net selling pressures impacting the market, as of mid-January, the exchange rate fluctuations between the USD and VND have stabilized, fostering more stable investment sentiments. Investors are hopeful the Vietnamese authorities have achieved stability goals with the currency market, especially following the central bank's interventions via USD sales.
Indeed, the most significant risk looming over the stock market remains the possibility of the U.S. levying increased tariffs on key exports. Nonetheless, it is clear domestic policies and economic growth drivers are playing leading roles as catalysts for stock market performance this year.
Given the full spectrum of expectations—further information from companies announcing positive business plans for 2025—market sentiment is decidedly leaning toward optimism, indicating there may be active trading days for investors moving forward.