The Vietnamese stock market is showing signs of recovery as experts predict a potential rebound in the VN-Index following a period of cautious trading. After closing at 1,226 points at the end of April 2025, analysts from various firms have shared insights on market trends as the KRX trading system comes online on May 5, 2025.
In April, the VN-Index experienced a decline of 80.56 points, or 6.16%, compared to the previous month, reflecting a turbulent trading environment. The market fluctuated within the range of 1,200 to 1,240 points, indicating a cautious sentiment among investors. The average trading value per session rose sharply by 20% to 21,800 billion VND, suggesting that while selling pressure was evident, there remained an appetite for opportunities at lower price points.
Trần Thăng Long, the Director of Analysis at BIDV Securities Corporation (BSC), expressed optimism about the VN-Index potentially recovering to 1,280 points. He attributed this expectation to nearly three weeks of price accumulation between 1,200 and 1,240 points. "The operation of the KRX system is anticipated to enhance investor sentiment and bring capital back to the stock market," Long stated.
Several factors are driving the market toward stabilization after the significant drop earlier in April. Notably, the United States announced a 90-day postponement of tariffs on April 10, 2025, which opened up negotiation opportunities with about 17 trade partners. This move has been viewed positively by Vietnam, which is actively proposing negotiation packages to improve market sentiment.
Furthermore, Vietnam is pursuing high-growth policies through domestic economic support measures, including stimulating local consumption, reducing VAT, and promoting public investment. These efforts are expected to bolster economic stability and investor confidence.
Despite the positive outlook, Long cautioned investors to remain vigilant regarding global macroeconomic conditions, particularly the impact of U.S. trade policies, which could create uncertainties in the market. As of the end of April, over 800 listed companies reported a 13.1% increase in after-tax profits year-on-year, according to FiinproX.
In terms of sector performance, growth has been notable in retail, real estate, basic resources, utilities, and banking, all of which have shown resilience compared to the same period last year. Specifically, the electricity and energy sector is expected to benefit from rising consumption during the hot season, while banks have seen a nearly 15% increase in after-tax profits for Q1, largely driven by contributions from several major banks.
Nguyễn Anh Khoa, Head of Analysis and Investment Consulting at Agriseco, forecasted that the VN-Index would continue to fluctuate within the 1,200-1,250 point range after the holiday break. He noted that while liquidity is expected to improve, a significant breakout is unlikely due to remaining investor caution, particularly concerning U.S. trade policies.
The market's current state reflects a need for new drivers to propel it forward, with Khoa emphasizing the importance of monitoring Q1 earnings results and corporate strategies during annual general meetings. He suggested that investors should take advantage of market upticks to sell short-term positions or adjust their portfolios to align with their risk tolerance.
Meanwhile, VFS analysts observed that the stock market experienced strong fluctuations in April, mirroring global indices like the Dow Jones and S&P 500. The announcement of a 46% countervailing duty on Vietnamese goods by the U.S. had initially spurred panic selling, leading to significant declines. However, positive developments, such as easing U.S.-China tensions and the initiation of tariff negotiations, have contributed to a more optimistic investor outlook.
VFS identified the nearest resistance zone for the VN-Index as 1,240 to 1,250 points. If successfully breached, the index could rise towards 1,270 points. They provided two scenarios for the market in May: a 60% likelihood that the VN-Index will conquer the 1,240-1,250 point zone and a 40% chance that the market will continue to hover around the 1,200-1,240 point area.
On April 29, the VN-Index decreased slightly by 0.5 points to 1,226.3 points, while the HNX-Index rose by 0.49 points to 211.94 points. Analysts from BVSC noted that the market is likely to form a sideways fluctuation zone to create a new price base, with a balanced market breadth showing 10 out of 18 sectors gaining.
SHS Securities Corporation highlighted that the VN-Index is establishing a balance around the 1,200 point area, a psychologically significant support level. They indicated that the market could accumulate for an extended period until trade negotiation results are available.
As the KRX trading system is set to launch, expectations are high for a positive market reaction. Analysts believe that this new system will enhance trading efficiency and investor engagement, with potential benefits for the broader market.
In summary, while the VN-Index faces challenges, various factors—including policy support, sector resilience, and improved investor sentiment—are paving the way for a potential recovery. Investors are advised to remain cautious but optimistic as they navigate the evolving market landscape.
