In the first four months of 2025, Vietnam's shrimp exports have demonstrated remarkable growth, contributing $1.27 billion to the economy, a 30% increase compared to the same period last year. This surge reflects strong demand from key markets such as China, Japan, the European Union (EU), and South Korea. Specifically, in April 2025, shrimp exports reached $330.8 million, marking a 15% rise, driven by robust consumption in China, the EU, and Japan, alongside a recovery in shrimp prices due to a global balance of supply and demand.
The prices of black tiger shrimp and white leg shrimp in major markets like China ($9.6/kg and $6.6/kg) and the U.S. ($17.7/kg and $10.9/kg) indicate a stable trend, which is encouraging for exporters. Meanwhile, pangasius exports totaled $632.7 million in the first four months, reflecting a 9% increase. However, the pangasius sector faced challenges in April, with exports reaching only $167.7 million, a figure nearly unchanged from the previous year. This stagnation is largely attributed to pressures from U.S. tariff policies and competition from alternative sources like tilapia from Ecuador.
In response to the looming risk of a 46% tariff set to take effect in July 2025, many businesses accelerated their pangasius exports in April, taking advantage of a 90-day moratorium on the new tax to complete large shipments. Notably, tilapia exports soared by 138% in April, reaching $19 million, as the industry anticipates significant growth, with plans to expand tilapia farming to 40,000 hectares by 2030, aiming for a production target of 400,000 tons.
On the other hand, tuna exports faced a downturn, with April figures showing only $76.1 million, a 12% decrease compared to the same month last year, despite a slight overall increase of 1% to $304.2 million over the first four months. The decline is attributed to a shortage of raw materials due to regulations regarding the minimum size for caught tuna, which has impacted production levels.
Other seafood items have shown promising growth, with mollusks generating $216.4 million (up 18%), crabs reaching $83.1 million (up 82%), and squid increasing to $112.1 million (up 50%). This trend indicates a diversification in product offerings is yielding positive results for exporters.
China remains the leading market for Vietnamese seafood, with a total turnover of $709.8 million in the first four months, an impressive 56% increase. In April alone, exports to China reached $182.3 million, a 29% rise, driven primarily by high-end products like shrimp, crab, and mollusks, which cater to domestic demand and the Labor Day holiday (May 1-5). Japan follows closely as the second-largest market, with exports totaling $536.6 million (up 22%), supported by stable consumption of value-added products.
The EU and South Korea also reported positive results, with export figures of $351.5 million (up 17%) and $264.1 million (up 15%) respectively, both benefiting from free trade agreements like the EVFTA and CPTPP. Conversely, the U.S. market has shown signs of stagnation, with a total export turnover of $498.4 million in the first four months (up 7%), but a significant drop of 15% in April to $120.5 million.
The impending U.S. tariff policy, set to be implemented on July 9, 2025, after a 90-day grace period, has forced Vietnamese importers to reconsider their sources, potentially shifting towards suppliers from India and Ecuador, where tariffs are lower. Additionally, technical barriers, including traceability requirements and food safety controls, are increasing pressure on Vietnamese enterprises.
In anticipation of the new U.S. tariffs, many seafood companies in Vietnam are ramping up exports, particularly focusing on shrimp and pangasius. The Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) forecasts that exports to the U.S. in May and June 2025 could increase by 10-15% compared to April due to urgent contract signings and strategic price adjustments to maintain market share. However, exports to China and ASEAN countries might only see a modest increase of 3-5%, as Chinese products, having faced a 125% tariff in the U.S. since April 10, are being redistributed domestically and regionally, intensifying competition in the low-price segment.
Looking ahead, the EU and Japan are expected to sustain growth rates of 8-10% due to advantages from trade agreements, but these gains may not fully offset the declines from the U.S. market. In response to these challenges, many businesses are restructuring their strategies, shifting towards lower-risk markets such as Brazil, Mexico, and the Middle East, while also focusing on developing deep-processed products to enhance value. For instance, frozen shrimp and ready-to-cook pangasius fillets are being prioritized, with expected export values projected to rise by 20% in the third quarter of 2025.
The Vietnamese seafood industry is facing dual challenges from tariffs and international competition. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, total seafood export turnover for 2025 could reach $10.5 billion, contingent on the adaptability of businesses to U.S. policies and flexibility in market diversification. Leveraging free trade agreements and investing in value-added products will be crucial to maintaining growth momentum.
