The Vietnamese real estate market is poised for a significant shift as it heads toward 2025, indicating renewed optimism from both buyers and investors. Over the past year, the dynamics of the market have changed, moving from skepticism to readiness for real estate purchases.
According to Vo Hong Thang, the Deputy General Director of DKRA Group, 2025 is anticipated to be vibrant for the market, particularly as indicators of recovery have started to manifest since late 2024. This anticipated resurgence is backed by factors such as improvements in policies, increased supply, and enhanced infrastructure, which collectively promise to establish a new growth phase for the real estate sector.
One of the key bright spots projected for 2025 is the easing of supply constraints, especially for projects meeting regulatory requirements. It's estimated there will be over 43,300 new properties entering the market, primarily driven by the southern regions including Ho Chi Minh City and neighboring provinces like Binh Duong. The latter is set to lead the apartment market, reflecting investment trends moving outward from Ho Chi Minh City due to limited development land and rising costs.
Thang points out, "This shift also indicates the investment migration away from Ho Chi Minh City's core regions as the local land becomes scarce and legal hurdles remain unresolved, influencing investors to look for opportunities nearby. This marks a strategic pivot for developers and investors alike."
Meanwhile, the northern market is expected to follow suit, with continued increases projected for apartment supply, particularly in Hanoi, Hung Yen, and Hai Phong. Thang adds, "The Hanoi market will see developments focusing primarily on the two major urban areas located to the west and east of the city, emphasizing districts such as Dong Anh and Gia Lam."
Contributing to this positive outlook are several reforms and updates to land management and real estate legislative frameworks. These changes are intended to bring greater clarity and transparency to legal procedures, allowing investors to navigate the property development process more effortlessly. The stability of interest rates and controlled inflation are also facilitating smoother access to financing for homebuyers.
Nguyen Quoc Anh, Deputy General Director of Batdongsan.com.vn, echoed this sentiment, remarking, "There is palpable confidence among potential buyers and investors as they transition from mere exploration to making purchasing decisions." He highlighted three primary drivers fueling this renewed confidence: steady growth of real estate credit, decreasing operational interest rates since early 2023, and recent legislative changes aimed at strengthening the legal foundation of the market.
Notably, the credit for real estate has reportedly expanded to approximately 3.35 trillion VND as of December 2024, reflecting about 21.8% of total credit across the economy. This boost signifies flow of capital and favorable conditions for the market, promoting real estate engagements more than before.
"According to historical market cycles, we expect the sector will consolidate by Q2 2025, transitioning to improved investor confidence and collaborative real estate developments, particularly with the focus on residential units," noted Quoc Anh.
During the latter half of 2025, real estate investment decisions will likely pivot quality rather than just cost, with promising areas such as land lots and villas receiving increased attention. Luu Quang Tien, Vice Director of the Institute of Economic Research at Dat Xanh Services, asserted, "The market is undergoing revitalization and is preparing for rapid expansion as it returns to sustainable growth modes. We anticipate transparency and stability as core niches are being developed across regions.”
With roughly 15,000 new apartment units predicted to be launched primarily from Ho Chi Minh City, including key upcoming projects, the southern market is positioned to experience notable transitions. Further, anticipated improvements from infrastructural investments will likely stimulate increased interest and movement within real estate development sectors. For example, proposed developments such as high-rise apartments are gradually shifting focus toward suburban locales.
On the commercial front, trends indicate the steady expansion of retail spaces, with more brands eager to establish themselves thanks to affordable rental prices and attractive project layouts. The overall retail sector found stability, with increased footfall leading to greater leasing concentration.
Despite various anticipated challenges, such as rising input costs and global economic fluctuations, the Vietnamese real estate industry stands ready to navigate these disruptions. Important upgrades to urban infrastructure, like expanded transport networks and the construction of satellite urban centers, are anticipated to enrich the market fabric even more.
By recognizing and addressing the diverse shifts taking place, developers, investors, and policy-makers can prepare not just for challenges, but also for opportunities as Vietnam's real estate market gears up for 2025. The convergence of solid leadership and supportive policies presents the stage for what could be the dawn of another growth era for Vietnamese real estate.