The Vietnamese banking sector is gearing up to meet a challenging yet potentially achievable target of 16% growth in credit this year, driven by an upturn in demand for loans.
The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has set this goal to align with a projected economic growth rate of 8%, signifying a vital connection between financing and economic performance. To reach this ambitious objective, banks are expected to inject an additional 2.5 trillion dong into the economy.
As part of a broader strategy, the SBV, in collaboration with various banks, is considering ways to boost credit availability, possibly raising the target amount needed to spur this growth to between 2.8 and 3.1 trillion dong should GDP growth reach higher percentages of 10% or more. This proactive response is crucial, as a decrease in economic activity over the past few years marked by a negative growth of credit in 2023 and 2024 exacerbate the need for increased lending.
In recent updates, the total outstanding credit within Ho Chi Minh City has reached 3.9 trillion dong. This figure reflects a slight decrease of 0.17% compared to last year; however, credit shows a positive growth of 12.2% since the beginning of 2025. Such trends demonstrate a resilient banking sector responsive to the economic climate.
Dao Minh Tu, a high-ranking official at the SBV, stated, “To help the economy grow, the banking sector has the responsibility to promote credit to the economy. This includes allocating funds to support businesses currently experiencing difficulties.”
This situation is indicative of the broader economic recovery that Vietnam aims to achieve. Analysts predict that if the economic environment stabilizes, credit growth is likely to fall between 17% and 18% due to increasing demand from both industrial and service sectors, largely fueled by favorable credit conditions.
Some banks are particularly optimistic about their growth prospects. Among the 12 banks forecasting credit to surpass 16%, notable names include Techcombank (20.5%), VPBank (24.1%), VIB (25.2%), and HDBank (25.6%). Their confidence reflects an anticipated rebound in lending facilitated by improvements within the Vietnamese economy.
Despite some challenges, the outlook remains positive. Nguyen Thu Hanh, General Director of Standard Chartered Vietnam, remarked, “2024 has been a challenging year; still, Vietnam's credit growth has consistently exceeded 15%.” This ongoing growth sets a robust precedent for achieving the banking sector's ambitious 16% target this year.
Factors such as government spending and increased operational costs for private enterprises have been vital in driving loan demand. Economic experts note that maintained export growth at 8-10% would considerably enhance credit growth, promoting further investment opportunities.
However, external risks loom that could stymie credit growth. Tran Du Lich, a financial and economic expert, cautioned that if increased capital does not flow into production or business sectors but instead into real estate or stock markets, there exists a high risk of creating financial bubbles like those experienced in past years.
This highlights the delicate balance that Vietnam must maintain to foster sustainable economic growth while avoiding pitfalls associated with rapid credit expansion. Policymakers in the nation are thus navigating a complex landscape to ensure that funding reaches areas of genuine economic need.
The SBV has committed to providing adequate support to the sectors deemed vital for development, alongside expanding credit to real estate opportunities that have potential ties to large-scale projects—essentially those serving population centers like public transport stations and urban developments.
As credit demand gradually rebounds, forecasts suggest that the growth rate could range between 14% to 14.2% in 2025, supported by the economic landscape's encouraging outlook, largely driven by industrial and business activity recovery.
In summary, the Vietnamese banking industry is positioning itself to meet a 16% credit growth target this year, a goal that, while ambitious, feels increasingly within reach thanks to a rejuvenating demand for loans aligned closely with Vietnam's broader economic aspirations.
