The Vietnam stock market has shown remarkable resilience, with the VN-Index recently overcoming the psychological barrier of 1,300 points. This milestone marks the end of the trading week with significant moves and is indicative of positive investor sentiment fueling the index's upward momentum.
The VN-Index closed at 1,305.36 points during the week ending February 28, 2025, reflecting not only the market's determination to maintain its course but also a remarkable increase of 8.61 points, equivalent to 0.66%. This upswing occurred after five previous weeks of consistent gains, proving pivotal for the market's outlook.
A review of the week revealed strong liquidity, with trade turnover accelerating for the fifth consecutive week, climbing by nearly 49.9% compared to the average trading volume over the past 20 weeks. Investors showed notable eagerness, illustrated by 13 out of 21 sectors recording growth, with steel (+6.30%), securities (+4.26%), and seafood (+2.70%) leading the charge.
Notably, foreign investors posed some challenges last week, recording net sales amounting to 2.5 trillion VND on the HSX, with significant divestments visible in large-cap stocks. The highest selling pressures were observed on popular stocks such as FPT, STB, and HPG. Conversely, there were increased buy-ins reported for stocks like MWG and VNM, signifying selective foreign investment amid broader market dynamics.
Looking forward, analysts from KIS project potential growth for the VN-Index toward the ranges of 1,400 to 1,450 points, legitimizing this optimistic outlook through technical analysis. They highlighted the formation of what is referred to as a rectangular pattern, which is characterized by prolonged accumulation within specific thresholds—namely, the upper resistance at 1,300 and the lower range between 1,180 and 1,200 points.
"The index could confirm steeper growth by breaking the 1,300 points," stated KIS, underlining the importance of maintaining momentum beyond this psychological landmark. There is historical precedent for such patterns, drawing parallels to market behavior between 2014 and 2016, when similar circumstances facilitated significant upward movements.
These findings were echoed by MBS’s analysts, who noted, "Investor sentiment remains strong, with opportunities evident for surpassing 1,300," framing the current environment as ripe for continued gains, especially with the overarching government agenda advocating for GDP growth targets exceeding 8% by 2025.
Throughout this period, the volume of trade has significantly improved, bouncing back from traditional slowdowns often seen during the Tet celebrations. The importance of this uptick is magnified by its timing—investors appear to be preparing for a prolonged bullish phase, evident from the increasing capital inflows just after the Tet holiday.
Adding to the analysis’s merit, KIS identified potential trading behavior models, particularly the "throwback" phenomenon, which often occurs post-breakout when indices typically retest previous resistance. This theory aligns with the market's behavior observed after the significant breakthrough on February 24, 2025, when the index hit 1,304 points before adjustments sent it once again above the 1,300 thresholds.
"Four trading sessions after February 24 seem to echo this phenomenon, especially on February 27, when heightened selling pressure forced declines but was balanced by buying resilience," noted KIS's Thanh Nhan. This scenario solidifies the premise of breakthrough confirmations taking shape, wherein patterns measured from previous resistance could potentially see prices aimed at 1,420 points, leveraging the established pattern's height of roughly 120 points.
Despite these positive adjustments, experts advise caution concerning the market’s immediate posturing. While expectations remain lofty, the prevailing sentiment advises maintaining limited buying positions. Stakeholders should prepare for realizations of profit-taking opportunities as the VN-Index approaches the target resistance area around 1,327 points, with adjustments potentially reflecting back to support levels near 1,290 points.
The Vietnamese government is elevatung its commitment to sustaining long-term economic growth amid the positive stock market developments. Minister of Finance Nguyen Van Thang elaborated on the importance of capital markets by affirming, "The government is determined to increase GDP by at least 8% from its current base, laying grounds for double-digit growth from 2026 onwards.”
This ambition, coupled with relatively low interest rates and the improving performance of listed enterprises, bolsters the stock market's potential to become a significant channel for financing development as part of broader economic strategies. Overall, the market appears set for not only immediate fluctuations but also sustainable long-range viability as stakeholders align investments with Vietnam's expansive potential.
Investors are now watching closely as the VN-Index continues to navigate the waters of resistance and support, weighing the opportunities against potential risks amid sound economic forecasts and looming international market challenges. Support for the financial market's evolution remains imperative, particularly as Vietnam positions itself as a pivotal player within the increasingly interconnected global economy.