The Vietnamese stock market has experienced a rollercoaster week, with the VN-Index showing significant fluctuations and ultimately closing on a high note. Starting on April 8, 2025, the index plummeted by nearly 78 points, driven by investor anxiety over potential U.S. tariffs of up to 46% on certain Vietnamese exports. This downturn continued into April 9, when the VN-Index fell an additional 39.5 points, reaching a low of 1,094 points—the lowest level since late 2023.
However, a turning point came on April 10, when the U.S. government unexpectedly announced a 90-day suspension of the tariff implementation to allow for further negotiations. This announcement sparked a wave of optimism among investors, leading to a near 74-point surge in the VN-Index, equivalent to a 6.77% increase. The recovery momentum continued into April 11, with the VN-Index adding over 54 points to close at 1,222.46 points, nearly erasing the earlier losses.
Trading volumes surged as well, with the total trading value across the three exchanges hitting approximately 41,800 billion VND, signaling a robust return of both speculative and value-driven investments. Notably, foreign investors ended a weeks-long streak of net selling, returning to net buying with a focus on blue-chip stocks such as Hoa Phat (HPG), FPT, ACB, MBB, and VIC, which significantly bolstered the recovery trend.
Nguyen Thi My Lien, head of analysis at Phu Hung Securities, commented on the situation, stating, "The recent panic has opened up excellent opportunities to accumulate fundamentally strong stocks that possess high defensive characteristics and benefit from macroeconomic policies. These stocks typically offer high dividend yields and are less affected by U.S. tax policies. They often belong to essential consumer goods sectors like SAB, BMP, VNM, and QNS, or utility sectors like REE, BWE, and GEG." She noted that these stocks have declined less than the broader market, reflecting stable investor confidence.
Despite this positive outlook, Khai Hoan, an analyst at VPS Securities, cautioned that not many companies have reported earnings exceeding expectations. Some sectors have even recorded disappointing results, leading to potential market divergence. He emphasized the importance of investors evaluating the prospects of specific sectors, particularly the financial sector, which is expected to remain a market leader in the coming period.
Nguyen Viet Quang, the business director at Yuanta Securities, highlighted that investors are currently focusing on macroeconomic factors due to their direct impact on Vietnam's GDP growth expectations for 2025. He noted that even positive Q1 2025 earnings results may not immediately trigger strong stock price reactions, as market sentiment remains cautious.
The fluctuations in the Vietnamese stock market reflect its sensitivity to international news, yet the market demonstrated a robust recovery when investor sentiment was relieved. Although the technical recovery is a positive sign, the establishment of a sustainable upward trend will require stable capital flows, Q1 2025 earnings results from companies, and clearer policy signals both domestically and internationally.
In the short term, investors are advised to maintain flexibility, keeping their stock proportions at a reasonable level (around 30% NAV) and focusing on fundamentally sound stocks with stable cash flows and profits. They should also be prepared to increase their stock proportions when the market establishes a clearer trend around the support level of 1,150 points.
In a broader context, the VN-Index has fluctuated significantly, with a range of nearly 150 points from 1,073.61 to 1,222.54 points. The weekly chart showed signs of recovery, presenting a Hammer reversal candlestick pattern, which indicates a potential recovery towards a resistance level of 1,275 to 1,300 points. However, significant profit-taking pressure is expected at this level.
Yuanta Vietnam's Morning Note on April 14, 2025, highlighted a short-term upward trend, recommending stocks such as STB (target price 42,660 VND, 10.68% upside), HVN (target price 33,910 VND, 15.93% upside), and TCB (target price 29,040 VND, 9.18% upside) for potential investors. Furthermore, Brent crude oil futures increased to $64.7 per barrel on April 11, 2025, while rubber futures rose to 169 cents per kilogram amid ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
Overall, the Vietnamese stock market has shown resilience in the face of external pressures, and while the recent developments have created opportunities for investors, it remains crucial to navigate the market with caution and strategic foresight.
