On July 2, 2025, the Vietnamese stock market painted a hopeful picture as the VN-Index closed at 1,384.59 points, marking an increase of 6.75 points (+0.49%). This rise not only surpassed the significant 1,380-point threshold but also signaled a confident march toward the challenging 1,400-point mark. The trading session was characterized by a robust green wave, with 204 stocks advancing against 109 declining on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE), reflecting broad market optimism.
The VN30 index, representing the largest-cap stocks, echoed this positive momentum by climbing 6.60 points (+0.45%) to close at 1,482.76 points. This index is now approaching a formidable resistance zone, mirroring price levels last seen in March 2022, setting the stage for a crucial test of market strength. The market’s improved liquidity was notable, with a 16.8% increase over the previous session, signaling active capital seeking new opportunities after recent selling pressures.
Foreign investors played a pivotal role in this upbeat scenario, net buying an impressive 885.2 billion Vietnamese dong on HOSE, reinforcing confidence in Vietnam’s market prospects. Meanwhile, the derivatives market showed encouraging signs: the futures contract 41I1F7000 gained 10.5 points (+0.72%) to close at 1,469.0 points, narrowing its gap with the VN30 index to a basis of -13.06 points. Although total futures trading volume rose slightly by 5.3%, it remained below average; however, open interest surged to 47,821 contracts from 45,639, indicating growing investor commitment and anticipation of further gains.
Market analysts provided a cautiously optimistic outlook. SHS Securities highlighted that the VN-Index’s short-term trend remains upward, supported by a strong psychological floor at 1,350 points and technical backing near 1,375 points. Both the VN-Index and VN30 are currently in short-term overbought territory, suggesting that while the momentum is positive, some correction pressure could emerge. SHS recommends investors maintain a balanced portfolio weight, focusing on fundamentally sound stocks that lead strategic sectors and exhibit superior growth aligned with Vietnam’s expanding economy.
Ban Viet Securities’ derivatives report underscored the dominance of the LONG trend in the VN30F1M futures contract, which traded within a range of 13.1 points (1,471.8 to 1,458.7). The report noted that foreign investors held a short position of 1,347 contracts overnight on July 2 but have maintained a cumulative long position of 6,174 contracts since early June. Among the VN30 stocks, 17 recorded gains, with TCB (Techcombank) contributing the most significant positive impact (+1.72 points), while VHM (Vinhomes) was the largest detractor (-0.43 points). Technical indicators such as the MACD and RSI suggest that the upward trend still has room to run, though some volatility is expected.
Supporting this view, KIS Vietnam advised investors to hold a high portfolio weight, noting that despite short-term profit-taking pressures, the overall uptrend remains intact. Tien Phong Securities observed that the market’s positive advance, coupled with improved liquidity, signals investor confidence returning to the current price levels. They pointed out that the VN-Index continues to follow a Cup and Handle pattern, a classic bullish formation, but warned of possible mild adjustments in the coming sessions due to overbought conditions, especially near the resistance at 1,396 points.
Yuanta Vietnam added that the 41I1F7000 futures contract recently adjusted near its 50-day moving average before rebounding, with technical signals indicating continued upward momentum. The resistance zone of 1,469 to 1,474 points is critical for the next trading session, with RSI improvements suggesting the potential for further gains despite expected fluctuations.
Looking ahead to July 3, 2025, securities firms offered nuanced guidance. CTCK Kien Thiet Vietnam (CSI) urged caution, warning that the VN-Index is nearing a strong resistance band between 1,398 and 1,418 points, where selling pressure is likely to intensify. They recommend minimizing new buying positions and avoiding chasing the market during sharp rallies. Instead, investors should maintain existing holdings and gradually realize profits as the index approaches this resistance zone, while seeking opportunities aligned with capital rotation.
CTCK Vietcombank (VCBS) echoed the positive sentiment, noting that the market’s surpassing of 1,380 points was bolstered by banking, securities, steel, and industrial park stocks. VCBS encourages investors to continue holding stocks with upward momentum and consider increasing exposure during intra-session pullbacks. They also suggest targeting sectors with room for growth relative to nearby resistance levels, particularly securities and steel.
CTCK Asean Securities expects the VN-Index to approach the psychologically significant 1,390-1,400 points threshold, propelled by confirmed liquidity from the previous session. They have consistently advised short-term traders to accumulate positions during market dips over the past month. However, as the index nears key targets and buying opportunities become scarcer, Asean has shifted its short-term recommendation from Buy to Hold. The firm highlights sectors with positive fundamental stories and limited tariff-related risks, such as banking, securities, real estate, retail, and public investment. Notably, the securities sector was among the most active and impressive performers on July 2.
SHS reiterates the importance of focusing on stocks with strong fundamentals, industry leadership, and exceptional economic growth potential. They emphasize a prudent approach, maintaining reasonable portfolio weights while navigating the market’s overbought state.
In sum, Vietnam’s stock market is navigating a critical juncture. The VN-Index’s steady climb toward 1,400 points reflects underlying strength and investor confidence, supported by robust liquidity and foreign participation. Yet, with technical indicators signaling overbought conditions and resistance looming, cautious optimism prevails. Investors are advised to balance enthusiasm with prudence, capitalizing on selective opportunities while managing risk as the market tests its next thresholds.
