The Vietnamese real estate market is currently facing significant challenges as it begins 2025, overall characterized by rising interest but decreasing successful transactions. Despite the launch of numerous large projects and initiatives aimed at revitalizing the sector, something has faltered - only 14 projects met sale conditions, with nearly 1,700 new properties introduced, yet the number of successful transactions has fallen.
According to statistics from batdongsan.com.vn, consumer interest has surged, especially following the Lunar New Year of the Snake, with individuals searching for real estate increasing six-fold compared to the end of 2024. Similarly, the number of properties posted for sale has spiked by approximately four times. This dichotomy highlights the dilemma faced by potential buyers, whose eagerness for property does not translate easily to successful purchases.
Nguyen The Diep, Vice Chairman of the Hanoi Real Estate Club, offers insight on the cautious sentiment surrounding the market, driven largely by fluctuations experienced throughout 2023 and 2024. Many investors remain apprehensive, awaiting more definitive governmental policies before making financial commitments. "The market is still cautious, and investors are waiting for clearer government policies before acting," he noted.
Looking to the future, experts project certain segments of the real estate market may show vitality. PGS.TS Trần Kim Chung, former Vice Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management, emphasized the resilience of industrial real estate, which is likely to lead market recovery bolstered by macroscopic economic growth and increasing foreign direct investment (FDI). He stated, "The real estate market will improve, especially with industrial real estate leading the way." He anticipates substantial growth, propelled by remits focused on infrastructure investment.
On the flip side, residential real estate may experience some correction due to high pricing and lower investment margins. The ability of the market to adjust to reality hinges on regulatory developments, as many legal frameworks are either delayed or under revision, complicate the speed of new property rollouts.
Cấn Văn Lực, another economic expert, affirmed the positive outlook based on improving financial stability among real estate firms. "Maintaining current capital channels will promote stable market growth,” he asserted, hinting at the resilience of companies as they navigate their financial obligations.
Despite the increasing demand, supply concerns linger heavily. Nguyen Van Dinh, representative of the Vietnam Real Estate Association, forecasts at least a 10% increase in new real estate supply compared to 2024. Even so, he warns this is insufficient to satisfy actual housing demands, especially as the population and urbanization rates continue to rise. "We expect at least a 10% increase in new real estate supply compared to 2024," he emphasized.
The consensus among experts suggests improvement should be expected from Q2 to Q4 of 2025, as market conditions stabilize and buyers become more confident. Nguyễn Quốc Anh, Deputy General Director of batdongsan.com.vn, mentioned how investor strategies are shifting. "Investors will shift focus from pricing concerns to potential for growth," he said, indicating the shift away from mere cost-based decisions.
To spark upward movement, experts point to the need for the government to refine its legal framework, advancing the implementation of the Land Law, ensuring transparency, and building investor confidence. Enhancing infrastructure and simplifying project approval processes would also serve to inject vitality back to the market.
Overall, the early stages of 2025 reflect both opportunities and obstacles. While the market exhibits promising signals such as heightened interest and increased inquiries, the tangible outcomes—successful transactions and investor confidence—remain subdued. It's clear the market is undergoing significant transitions, and only time and effective policy measures will determine its resilience and recovery.