On May 8, 2025, the price of gasoline and oil in Vietnam is anticipated to see a significant decrease, with estimates ranging from 400 to 750 VND per liter. This adjustment is part of the regular pricing cycle managed by the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Ministry of Finance. Following the previous pricing regulation, a leader from a southern oil distribution company noted that crude oil prices have continued to plummet to their lowest levels since early 2021, with a slight recovery observed recently.
As of May 6, 2025, the import prices for gasoline and oil in the Singapore market stood at 74.97 USD per barrel for RON 95 gasoline, which is a decline of over 1.87 USD per barrel compared to three days earlier. RON 92 gasoline was priced at 73.46 USD per barrel, down more than 1.7 USD per barrel. Consequently, it is expected that domestic gasoline prices will also drop, with RON 95 projected to decrease by approximately 400-550 VND per liter and diesel prices potentially falling by 600-750 VND per liter.
On May 7, 2025, discounts for gasoline and oil at some warehouses were reported between 1,450 and 1,700 VND per liter. If the predictions hold true, this would mark the second consecutive decline in RON 95 gasoline prices, following a brief increase. Currently, the price of this fuel remains at its lowest level in four years, comparable to May 2021. Since the beginning of the year, RON 95 has seen nine increases and nine decreases, while diesel has had eight increases, nine decreases, and one price hold.
In the most recent price adjustment on May 5, 2025, the regulatory authority decided to lower the price of E5 RON 92 gasoline by 80 VND per liter to 19,150 VND per liter, and RON 95 by 50 VND per liter to 19,580 VND per liter. Diesel prices were reduced by 170 VND per liter to 17,350 VND, kerosene by 150 VND per liter to 17,560 VND, and mazut by 330 VND per kilogram to 16,190 VND.
Globally, oil prices have been on a downward trend recently due to market caution ahead of the OPEC+ meeting regarding production policies, coupled with concerns over a potential global economic recession. However, on May 6, oil prices rebounded by approximately 3% after hitting a four-year low, driven by positive factors such as signs of stronger demand in Europe and China. Additionally, U.S. oil production has shown signs of decline as some companies announce cuts to drilling rigs due to low oil prices, according to Reuters.
As of 6:30 AM on May 7, 2025, WTI oil was trading at 59.58 USD per barrel, up 2.24% from the previous week, while Brent oil was at 62.58 USD per barrel, reflecting a 2.1% increase.
In a related development, the Ministry of Industry and Trade submitted the sixth draft of the Decree on gasoline and oil business to the government. This draft includes significant adjustments aimed at reshaping the structure of the oil market. Experts have noted that allowing traders to set their own prices could encourage competition and mitigate the issues of “virtual losses and real profits” that have arisen from unstable regulatory mechanisms in the past.
However, there are concerns that this could lead to market manipulation, especially since a few large companies currently dominate the market. The new draft mandates that traders must maintain a minimum total gasoline and oil source of 100,000 cubic meters per year, or risk losing their licenses. It also requires businesses to connect their inventory data online with the Ministry to prevent false reporting and stockpiling.
The draft allows distributors to purchase gasoline and oil from other distributors, breaking from previous drafts that prohibited such practices. Furthermore, it stipulates that traders can self-announce retail prices every Thursday, provided they do not exceed a ceiling price calculated based on costs and profit margins.
Despite these positive changes, concerns remain about the potential for larger enterprises to dominate the market. According to economist Ngo Tri Long, the current market does not exhibit perfect competition. The Competition Law states that a business with a market share of 30% or more, or a group of 2-3 businesses with a total market share of 50% or more, is considered a market-dominant enterprise. Currently, two major state-owned enterprises hold approximately 70% of the market share.
Long warns that allowing companies to set their own prices could lead to market control and risks of monopolistic practices, particularly if larger companies engage in predatory pricing to eliminate smaller competitors. He highlighted that during the oil crisis at the end of 2022 and early 2023, a few companies controlling supply could immediately cause chaos in the market if they decided to stop deliveries or sell at below-cost prices.
Moreover, while major traders have the flexibility to import and authorize supply, smaller distributors face limitations on sourcing and negotiating with domestic refineries. This imbalance could suffocate smaller players, leaving them vulnerable to unfavorable contract conditions imposed by larger suppliers.
As the government considers these regulatory changes, the balance between fostering competition and preventing market dominance remains a critical issue. The oil pricing landscape in Vietnam is evolving, and the implications of these changes will be closely monitored by both industry stakeholders and consumers alike.
