In 2024, the United States emerged as Vietnam's largest export market for agricultural, forestry, and fishery products, accounting for about 22% of the total turnover. However, with new trade policies set to be implemented by the U.S. in 2025, experts predict that Vietnam's export activities, particularly regarding agricultural products, could face significant challenges.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, in the first two months of 2025, Vietnam's total export turnover for agricultural, forestry, and fishery products reached 9.38 billion USD. This figure reflects an increase of 8.3% compared to the same period in 2024. While Vietnam's exports to China saw a decline of 4.3%, exports to the U.S. skyrocketed by 18.9% in the same timeframe.
In terms of coffee exports, the U.S. imported a staggering 1.48 million tons of coffee in 2024, amounting to 8.83 billion USD in value. Out of this, Vietnam contributed 96.8 thousand tons worth 355 million USD—a dramatic drop of 32.2% in volume from 2023, yet an uptick of 2.2% in value. Consequently, Vietnam climbed to be the third-largest provider of coffee to the U.S., with an impressive average import price that ballooned by 50.9% to 3,665 USD per ton.
Moreover, Vietnam held the title of the largest supplier of pepper to the U.S. in 2024, making up 77.17% of the total volume and 76.75% of the value of U.S. imports. Adjusting for numbers, this translates to 75.6 thousand tons of pepper, valued at 414.8 million USD. Vietnam also ranked as the 15th largest supplier of vegetables, fruits, and processed products to the U.S., reaching substantial financial gains of 619.5 million USD, a remarkable increase of 33.7% from the previous year.
Despite these gains, the risks posed by changes in U.S. trade policy cannot be neglected. Beginning in February 2025, the U.S. implemented tariff changes that directly and indirectly impact the export practices of various nations, including Vietnam. Đỗ Ngọc Hưng, the Trade Counselor at the Vietnamese Trade Office in the U.S., emphasized the need for Vietnam to vigilantly monitor U.S. trade developments to mitigate risks stemming from policy fluctuations.
Hưng noted, "Vietnam needs to keep a close watch on U.S. trade changes to minimize risks as the country modifies its policies." Previously, Vietnam accumulated valuable experiences from experiences in trade defense, particularly through thorough cooperation in providing information for investigations that protected the interests of Vietnamese businesses.
In 2024, the two-way trade turnover between the U.S. and Vietnam reached approximately 150 billion USD, an increase of 20% from 2023. Of the relationship between the two nations, it is significant to note that their trade is complementary. Goods from Vietnam increasingly reflect enhanced quality at competitive prices, making them appealing to U.S. consumers.
However, as new tariffs loom, the Vietnamese government must expedite its strategic preparations to safeguard trade interests amidst U.S. tax interventions. Analysts predict that the U.S. will implement tariffs on nations exhibiting significant trade surpluses with it, which distinctly includes Vietnam. Consequently, Vietnam's relevant agencies must strengthen collaborations with industry associations and U.S. import-export businesses to form a consortium toward expanding trade with Vietnam while minimizing risks related to U.S. policy changes.
Ngô Sỹ Hoài, Vice President and General Secretary of the Vietnam Timber and Forest Products Association (VIFOREST), shed light on Vietnam's timber exports, which reached more than 17 billion USD in 2024, with an impressive 9.1 billion USD destined for the U.S. Notably, U.S. imports included raw logs and sawn timber, which enjoyed a favorable tax rate of 0%, while processed wood products faced tariffs ranging from 20% to 25%.
Hoài expressed concern about the implications of the U.S. President's order dated February 13, 2025, requiring a review and assessment of tariffs on 17,000 imported goods. A potential tax revival could reverberate through Vietnam's timber industry, especially if the U.S. applies tariffs on timber products, which would have severe repercussions on many Vietnamese timber companies' export capacities.
"Currently, there is a noticeable hesitation among some U.S. clients regarding importing timber from Vietnam, leading to anxiety within Vietnamese firms. However, we want to stress that our timber trade is mutually supportive, creating value together. Vietnam is the second-largest importer of raw materials from the U.S., with much of this timber being processed into products then exported back to the U.S. This is a mutually beneficial trade relationship," Hoài stated.
Despite a tumultuous trade atmosphere, the global coffee market in Vietnam shows promising signs. The Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association reported that the export price of Arabica coffee reached over 6,800 USD per ton, hitting an all-time high, while Robusta coffee hovered near 5,400 USD per ton, with values increasing by more than 30% this year despite production drops.
On March 24, 2025, coffee prices in the Central Highlands were stable at 132,900 to 134,000 VND/kg, reflecting a slight weekly increase of about 2,000 VND/kg from earlier in the week. In the first half of March 2025, coffee exports surged to 93,898 tons, valued at 544.9 million USD, showing notable growth of 25.6% in volume and a 28% increase in value compared to the previous month, with total exports since the beginning of the year exceeding 406,600 tons and surpassing 2.2 billion USD in value.
Conversely, cocoa prices continued their downward trajectory, dropping 1.3% over the week, ending at 7,765 USD per ton. Following a peak of 12,193 USD per ton on December 18, 2024, cocoa prices have plummeted by over 36%, primarily due to a significant supply surplus during the 2024-2025 season predicted by the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO).
Industry experts remain vigilant as key indicators signify shifting tides in Vietnam's agricultural export landscape, urging stakeholders to adapt to dynamic market conditions. With careful planning and cooperation, there is potential for Vietnam to navigate these challenges and sustain its position as a crucial player in the global agricultural trade.
