As of April 14, 2025, domestic coffee prices in Vietnam are experiencing a slight recovery, with prices ranging from 123,700 to 125,000 VND per kilogram. In the Central Highlands, where coffee is primarily produced, prices have stabilized after a dip earlier in the month due to concerns over potential U.S. tariffs.
In Dak Nong province, coffee is being purchased at the highest price of 125,000 VND/kg, consistent with previous days. Similarly, Dak Lak province also reports the same price, while Gia Lai province maintains its price at 125,000 VND/kg. In contrast, Lam Dong province's coffee price is slightly lower at 123,700 VND/kg. This stability is a welcome change for farmers and traders alike.
Last week, however, the domestic coffee market faced challenges, with prices plummeting to a three-month low of 116,000 VND/kg on April 9, 2025, amid fears surrounding U.S. tariffs. Prices surged back up by 7,000 VND/kg over the last three days of the week following an announcement by former President Donald Trump, who declared a 90-day suspension of tariffs on coffee imports. This announcement gave traders and farmers a glimmer of hope, but the overall weekly performance still reflected a nearly 2% decrease in prices.
Specifically, the coffee prices in Dak Lak and Dak Nong provinces fell sharply by 2,200 VND/kg, while Gia Lai's prices decreased by 2,000 VND/kg, and Lam Dong's prices dropped by 2,300 VND/kg compared to the previous week. This downward trend had many farmers worried about their livelihoods, especially as they transition to other crops like durian, which promise higher economic returns.
On the global stage, coffee prices mirrored the fluctuations seen in the domestic market. On the London exchange, the price for Robusta coffee for the May 2025 contract closed last week at 5,099 USD per ton, down 0.3% from the previous week. The July 2025 contract fell by 1.1%, settling at 5,049 USD per ton. Meanwhile, the New York exchange reported a 1.6% decrease for the May 2025 Arabica coffee contract, which dropped to 360 US cents per pound.
Despite these declines, experts believe that the market is on the verge of recovery. Mr. Phung Van Sam, Chairman of Hanfimex Group, noted that the recent drop in coffee prices is largely due to psychological factors rather than actual supply and demand. The temporary suspension of tariffs and the implementation of a uniform 10% tax on all coffee-exporting countries will likely have minimal impact until Brazil's harvest season begins around July 2025.
Moreover, the global coffee supply is under pressure due to climate change, which has led to a decrease in production. In Vietnam, the declining coffee prices in recent years have prompted many farmers to shift to more lucrative crops, resulting in a continued drop in overall coffee production. Mr. Thai Nhu Hiep, Chairman of Vinh Hiep Company, confirmed that his company’s coffee inventory was only sufficient for sales until May 2024, a stark contrast to previous years when stocks lasted until the new harvest.
As of April 13, 2025, the world coffee market showed signs of stability. The Robusta coffee price on the London exchange remained steady, fluctuating between 4,768 and 5,134 USD per ton. The delivery prices for May and July contracts were recorded at 5,099 and 5,049 USD per ton, respectively. On the New York exchange, Arabica coffee prices also held relatively stable, with May contracts priced at 360.00 cents per pound.
Looking ahead, market analysts predict a positive trend for coffee prices in the coming days. The recent high trading sessions indicate that the market is recovering strongly, bolstered by the positive news from both domestic and international markets. Factors such as low inventories and a weakening U.S. dollar, which has hit a three-year low, are contributing to increased buying activities among investors.
Expert Nguyen Quang Binh pointed out that the significant decline in coffee exports from Brazil, combined with low inventory levels on the London floor, has prompted speculators to re-enter the market, driving prices up sharply in recent sessions. The continuing concerns about global supply shortages have also contributed to rising prices.
According to the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (Cecafe), Brazil's green coffee bean exports in March 2025 totaled only 2.95 million bags, a staggering 26% decrease compared to the same period last year. This decline highlights the mounting pressure on Robusta coffee supplies, with standard inventories monitored by ICE falling to a six-week low of just 4,253 lots on April 11, 2025. Such figures indicate a serious shortage of Robusta coffee in the market.
As the coffee market navigates these fluctuations, both domestic and international stakeholders remain hopeful for a more stable and profitable future. With key factors like tariff policies and supply chain dynamics at play, the coming months will be crucial for coffee farmers and traders alike.
