It’s been a wild year for coffee lovers and producers alike—especially in Vietnam and the United States, where the world’s most popular morning beverage has become a symbol of economic turbulence, climate anxiety, and shifting global trade winds. As 2025 draws to a close, both countries find themselves at the heart of a caffeine-fueled saga, driven by record-breaking prices, unpredictable weather, and heated political debates over tariffs.
Vietnam, the world’s second-largest coffee exporter, is basking in the glow of an unprecedented export boom. According to Chairman Nguyen Nam Hai of the Vietnam Coffee – Cocoa Association (Vicofa), by the end of the 2024–2025 crop year, the country shipped over 1.55 million tons of coffee abroad—a 1.8 percent uptick in volume. But the real headline is the cash haul: export earnings soared to a staggering US$8.4 billion, up 55.5 percent from the previous crop year. The average export price? An eye-popping $5,610 per ton, marking a 52.7 percent jump year-on-year. That’s the highest level ever recorded for Vietnam’s coffee exports, and it’s causing quite a stir among growers, traders, and international buyers.
On October 26, 2025, domestic coffee prices in Vietnam’s Central Highlands—the country’s coffee heartland—spiked to VND118,500 per kilogram, the highest in five weeks. In Lam Dong, prices shot up by VND2,100 to VND117,000 per kilogram. Dak Lak, another major producing province, saw prices reach VND118,500 per kilogram, nearly VND3,000 more than the previous day. Gia Lai wasn’t far behind at VND118,000 per kilogram. Traders point to the disruptive effects of heavy rains from typhoon Fengshen (Vietnam’s storm No. 12), which have hampered harvesting and drying activities. With supply suddenly constrained and exporters scrambling to meet delivery schedules, prices are on a tear.
Yet, amid the short-term chaos, there’s cautious optimism about the future. The 2025–2026 coffee harvest officially kicked off in late October, and initial surveys suggest output could climb by about 10 percent compared to last season. Major Vietnamese exporters such as Intimex, Simexco, Tin Nghia, and Trung Nguyen Legend are not only ramping up shipments to traditional markets in Europe, the U.S., Japan, and South Korea, but are also eyeing new frontiers in India and the Middle East, where demand for instant Robusta coffee is surging.
Still, Vietnamese officials are urging the industry not to rest on its laurels. At a recent conference launching the new production season in Ho Chi Minh City, Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Environment Hoang Trung called for tighter coordination between Vicofa and government agencies to maintain sustainable growth. He stressed the need to promote traceability, invest in deep processing, and reduce reliance on raw exports. “Farmers and enterprises should adopt low-emission farming practices and reduce input costs through more efficient use of fertilizers, pesticides, and irrigation,” Hoang Trung said. He also pressed exporters to strengthen compliance with international import standards, especially the tough new European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which, while challenging, offers a chance for Vietnam to enhance its coffee’s value and global standing.
But while Vietnam’s coffee sector is riding high, American consumers are feeling the pinch. In September 2025, the average U.S. price for a pound of ground coffee hit $9.14—a 3 percent increase from August and a whopping 41 percent higher than in September 2024, according to U.S. government data. The U.S. Labor Department reported that the consumer price index for coffee products was up 19 percent from the previous year and holding steady month-to-month. For millions of Americans, that means their morning cup is pricier than ever, and there’s no sign of relief just yet.
It’s not just the beans that are getting more expensive. Nikki Bravo, co-owner of Momentum Coffee in Chicago, recently raised prices by about 15 percent at her four shops. “At some point we just had to pass it along, we couldn't continue to eat it,” Bravo explained, noting that she’s paying 15 percent more for coffee beans than a year ago. Most of her beans are sourced from Africa, but other costs—like cups and sleeves—have also climbed, and Chicago’s minimum wage rose to $16.60 an hour on July 1. Stubbornly high inflation has left customers wary and less willing to splurge on a takeout coffee, Bravo added.
Why the sudden sticker shock? For starters, nearly all of America’s coffee is imported—99 percent, according to the National Coffee Association. Brazil, the top supplier, provides 30 percent of the U.S. market. But in July 2025, the Trump administration slapped a 40 percent tariff on Brazilian products, on top of an earlier 10 percent levy. Brazilian producers, caught in a standoff with U.S. roasters over who should absorb the extra cost, have begun withholding shipments, squeezing American supply. Colombia, which supplies 20 percent of U.S. coffee, faces a 10 percent tariff, and Vietnam, accounting for 8 percent, has been hit with a 20 percent tariff since summer 2025. So far, efforts to exempt coffee from these tariffs have stalled, even though President Trump announced in September that “unavailable natural resources” could be exempted for countries with trade deals. Coffee, it seems, didn’t make the cut.
“We only produce 1% of the coffee that Americans consume. It’s one of the best examples of Trump’s blanket tariffs making no economic sense,” U.S. Rep. Ro Khanna, a California Democrat, said in September as he introduced a bipartisan bill with Nebraska Republican Don Bacon to repeal all coffee tariffs. Bacon, for his part, said he became interested in the issue after seeing grocery store prices and argued, “I hope the president and Congress see the positive benefit of removing this tariff on everyday Americans.”
The trade drama is only part of the story. Weather risks are making things worse for both producers and consumers. World coffee prices jumped nearly 40 percent in 2024, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, thanks to heat, drought, and other poor weather conditions. In early October 2025, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declared that La Nina conditions had formed, raising fears of drought in Brazil—another blow to global supply chains. It’s no wonder that researchers are now hustling to develop more climate-resistant coffee varieties in hopes of buffering the industry against future shocks.
As the world’s coffee market grows more volatile, Vietnam’s success story stands out—but it’s also a reminder of how fragile the global coffee ecosystem has become. From the typhoon-soaked fields of the Central Highlands to the tariff-laden docks of American ports, coffee’s journey from bean to cup is now shaped by forces far beyond the control of any single farmer, roaster, or café owner. Whether you’re sipping a latte in Chicago or haggling over Robusta in Ho Chi Minh City, one thing’s for sure: the next chapter in coffee’s global saga is brewing fast.
