Vietnam Coffee Exports Set To Reach Record 8 Billion USD

As Vietnam enters 2025, the coffee industry is poised for a remarkable year, with exports potentially reaching record-breaking figures. The Vietnam Coffee Cocoa Association (VICOFA) projects that if current prices hold, the country's coffee exports could soar to an unprecedented 8 billion USD. This optimistic outlook is bolstered by recent data, which indicates a significant increase in coffee prices on the global market.

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the average price of coffee is expected to rise by 38.8% in 2024 compared to 2023, largely due to a decrease in production levels. The Department of Import-Export, part of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, has also weighed in, forecasting that the La Nina phenomenon may lead to frost in Brazil, which could reduce the 2025-2026 crop output to its lowest level in three years. This situation presents a unique opportunity for Vietnam to strengthen its market share in the global coffee arena.

Data from the Vietnam Customs Department reveals that from the beginning of the year until March 15, 2025, Vietnam has exported over 400,000 tons of coffee, generating a revenue of 2.28 billion USD. This marks an 18% decrease in volume compared to the same period in 2024, yet it reflects a staggering 41% increase in value. The surge in export value is attributed to a remarkable 73% rise in coffee prices from the first quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year, now standing at 5,614 USD per ton.

With these figures, if the current price trend continues throughout the remaining three quarters of the year, Vietnam's coffee industry could achieve a historic milestone of 8 billion USD in total export value. The Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, Phung Duc Tien, emphasized the potential for the coffee sector, stating that with the current growth trajectory, it could surpass the 6 billion USD mark in 2025.

In terms of export markets, Germany has emerged as the largest destination for Vietnamese coffee exports, followed closely by Italy, Japan, the United States, and Spain. This diverse market presence highlights Vietnam's growing influence in the global coffee trade.

Deputy Minister Tien remarked, "The strong increase in export value over the first two months of the year is a testament to the industry's potential. We need to continue investing in processing technology, expanding markets, and adapting flexibly to global fluctuations." His comments underscore the importance of strategic planning and innovation in maintaining Vietnam's competitive edge in the coffee market.

To further bolster the industry, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development is collaborating with VICOFA and other stakeholders to develop long-term strategies aimed at sustainable growth and enhancing the brand value of Vietnamese coffee. The commitment to innovation and quality is expected to transform challenges into opportunities amidst the volatile global market.

As Vietnam's coffee industry kicks off 2025 with impressive figures, it stands at a crossroads of potential and pride. The coffee sector, often referred to as "brown gold," not only contributes significantly to the economy but also embodies the agricultural heritage of Vietnam. With collaborative efforts from policymakers, businesses, and farmers, the industry is set to shine, turning challenges into opportunities in an ever-changing market landscape.

As the world watches, Vietnam's coffee exports could redefine the country’s position on the global stage, establishing it as a leader in the coffee sector. The upcoming months will be crucial in determining whether these projections materialize, but the groundwork laid thus far suggests a promising future for Vietnamese coffee.