On May 7, 2025, shares of Vamos (VAMO3) plummeted more than 8% following the release of the company's first-quarter results for 2025 (1T25), which revealed a significant drop in net profit. The vehicle rental and fleet management company reported a consolidated net profit of R$ 107.8 million, marking a staggering 45.6% decline compared to the same period in 2024. By around 11:40 AM (Brasília time), the stock had fallen to R$ 4.40, reflecting investor concerns over the company's financial health.
Analysts from XP Investimentos noted that Vamos' net profit was weaker than expected, with a decrease of 34% quarter-over-quarter and 27% against market consensus. They attributed this downturn primarily to rising financial expenses, which surged by 11% compared to the previous quarter, exerting additional pressure on the company's bottom line. Furthermore, returns from the sale of leased assets fell to R$ 207 million, significantly below the average of R$ 305 million recorded in 2024.
Despite these challenges, Vamos did report some positive figures. The company's consolidated EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) reached R$ 886.7 million, a 10.1% increase from the first quarter of the previous year. Additionally, consolidated net revenue was R$ 1.33 billion, representing a 24% increase compared to the same period last year.
Vamos' leverage ratio, calculated as the ratio of net debt to EBITDA, remained stable at 3.3 times, consistent with the end of 2024. The leasing segment was particularly robust, with revenues of R$ 1.3 billion, marking a growth of 25.4% from the previous period. Revenue from services also increased by 15%, totaling R$ 960.6 million, despite the seasonal impacts typically faced by the sugar and alcohol sector.
Looking ahead, Vamos provided its guidance for 2025, projecting a net profit between R$ 450 million and R$ 550 million. This forecast represents a notable reduction compared to the R$ 608 million predicted by XP and the R$ 653 million consensus among analysts. The company also anticipates closing the year with a leverage ratio between 3.0 and 3.2 times, down from 3.3 times in 2024.
In terms of capital expenditures, Vamos plans to invest between R$ 2 billion and R$ 2.2 billion in 2025, with an expected EBITDA of R$ 3.85 billion to R$ 4.15 billion. These projections are based on assumptions made late last year, which include a projected investment of R$ 5 billion for the year, with R$ 3.3 billion earmarked for acquiring new assets.
Analysts from BTG Pactual commented that the results indicated a soft start to the year, with the net profit falling short of expectations. They noted that the profit was impacted by higher financial expenses resulting from increased net debt and a higher effective tax rate of 28%. Despite these pressures, the analysts highlighted solid revenue growth and stable leverage in 1T25.
BTG Pactual analysts also emphasized the importance of monitoring Vamos' strategy moving forward, particularly regarding the reallocation of idle fleet assets and the execution of their "Sempre Novo" strategy. They pointed out that the company's focus on rental operations, following the spin-off of its dealership segment, should reduce exposure to cyclical revenues.
In a more cautious tone, Itaú BBA noted that although the net profit was below expectations due to higher financial expenses and increased rates, Vamos achieved the lowest level of asset repossessions seen in recent quarters. The company successfully renewed several contracts without needing to acquire new assets, indicating a positive reception from clients who are willing to continue leasing existing vehicles.
Despite the downturn in net profit, analysts remain optimistic about Vamos' potential. XP reiterated a buy recommendation, while BBI set a target price of R$ 8.00 for the end of 2025, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term prospects. Similarly, Itaú BBA maintained a buy recommendation with a target price of R$ 11.
In summary, while Vamos faces significant challenges in the short term due to increased financial pressures and a reduced net profit forecast, the company's strong revenue growth and strategic focus on fleet management operations position it well for future recovery. Investors will be keenly watching how Vamos navigates these challenges in the upcoming quarters.