Recent geopolitical events have escalated tensions between the United States and China, marked by aggressive actions and strategic military developments. A series of incidents involving the destruction of undersea internet cables by Chinese ships raises alarms about the integrity of global internet infrastructure and points to Beijing's broader ambitions.
This weekend, Swedish authorities detained a vessel accused of damaging subsea cables shortly after departing Russia. Just months earlier, another Chinese ship disrupted connectivity by dragging its anchor across the Baltic Sea, severing several key undersea internet connections. According to various reports, including one from Reuters, there is mounting concern over such incidents as China adopts more aggressive tactics under the guise of global connectivity.
One significant event occurred earlier this January, when the Taiwanese Coast Guard intercepted a Chinese-owned ship before it could damage another cable linking Taiwan to the global internet. These actions form part of China's broader strategy to assert dominance over regional Internet infrastructures and diminish American influence.
China’s ambitions include making itself the world leader in internet technology. Launched back in 2015, the Digital Silk Road initiative was conceived to secure China's technological supremacy. By creating extensive undersea cable networks, China seeks not just to build connections but also to enable easier surveillance and control over countries linking to its internet systems.
Chinese state-owned enterprises have already installed approximately 15% of the global internet infrastructure before the significant sanctions put forth by the U.S. government post-2019. Such sanctions, though impactful, have not entirely deterred Chinese firms from participating actively in undersea cable installations, which are projected to dominate around 50% of new additions from 2023 through 2028.
The situation around Taiwan is particularly precarious. According to public opinion polls, many Americans view the likelihood of war between the U.S. and China within the next decade as remarkably high. Close to 80% of respondents indicated they wish to limit the risk of conflict as China conducts increasing military activities aimed at Taiwan. Recent military exercises have shown the scale of China’s ambitions, including deploying potentially hundreds of warplanes and naval vessels.
China's military buildup is unprecedented since World War II. Reports indicate efforts by Beijing to match or exceed U.S. military capabilities, particularly at sea, with projections estimating their navy may have 440 ships by 2030 compared to the U.S. Navy’s 297. Such developments are worrisome for U.S. defense analysts. Former military leaders assert the need for America to invest heavily to maintain its superiority at sea, especially with advancements being made by China's submarine fleet.
During this sensitive time, the U.S. remains determined to bolster its submarine force—a move regarded as pivotal for deterrence against Chinese naval expansion. Recent congressional appropriations totaling $6.6 billion since 2018 reflect U.S. commitment to its maritime defense, enhancing shipyards and incorporating cutting-edge technologies.
This continued investment is not just about numbers but seeks to leverage America's historically superior stealth capabilities. According to former U.S. Indo-Pacific Command figures, American submarines are strategically positioned as effective deterrents against any aggressive moves by the Chinese Navy.
The urgency of these investments is underscored by the AUKUS security agreement formed with Australian and British partners, aimed at revitalizing regional security and countering Chinese influence. The deal is noteworthy, marking the first time another country, Australia, has heavily invested directly within American shipbuilding. From 2025 onwards, deliveries of Virginia-class attack submarines will solidify U.S. naval capabilities amid these rising tensions.
Given China's increasingly assertive posture and its direct actions—including cutting undersea cables, military exercises, and diplomatic provocations—American policymakers are focused on prevention over reaction. The deteriorative nature of U.S.-China relations signifies the urgent need to prevent potential conflicts through strengthened alliances and commitment to maritime superiority.
Public sentiment continues to play a role; American voters overwhelmingly express the desire to avoid war, pushing policymakers to act vigorously against Chinese aggression without resorting to direct conflict. Maintaining the integrity of internet infrastructures and military preparedness becomes increasingly intertwined as both nations navigate this intensely competitive geopolitical theater.
China's strategy also seeks to exploit potential fractures within American alliances globally, demonstrating how it perceives NATO as part of its adversarial approach against the U.S. military and its commitments abroad. This manipulation underlines Beijing's objectives to disrupt alliances and promote its narrative of U.S. decline.
While the battle for influence continues primarily through military posturing, the undersea internet infrastructure increasingly stands at risk, acting as both battleground and strategic asset. Each incident of cable disruption sends ripples through international diplomatic channels.
China's disregard for international norms indicates its readiness to provoke international incidents, emphasizing the need for cohesive responses from the U.S. and its allies. This strain on U.S.-China ties points toward future diplomatic and military contests, where retaining both technological and military advantages remains pivotal.
Moving forward, as U.S. policymakers reflect on these challenges, they will need to craft strategies prioritizing not only military readiness but also enabling secure and resilient connectivity globally, ensuring countermeasures against strategic cable cutting campaigns aimed at undermining American interests.