The beginning of the year has brought heightened tensions between China and the United States as military vessels from both countries have engaged in posturing activities in the South China Sea. On January 3, the U.S. Navy's aircraft carrier Carl Vinson re-entered the South China Sea after spending four days on routine port duty at Port Klang, Malaysia. This move coincides with the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Southern Theater Command conducting military exercises around Scarborough Shoal, displaying its air and naval capabilities amid increased regional scrutiny.
The Carl Vinson strike group had originally departed the South China Sea on December 29, 2022, the same day the PLA commenced its round of regularized patrols, raising speculation about whether the U.S. was deliberately avoiding confrontation with Chinese forces. Nevertheless, the recent return of the Carl Vinson has underscored the continuing military rivalry, as both sides attempt to send strong signals of deterrence to one another.
According to reports from CCTV, the PLA’s naval forces, led by the guided missile destroyer Yiyang, have been conducting extensive real-combat training exercises aimed at bolstering their operational readiness. The Yiyang, along with other vessels including Type 052C destroyers, is actively engaged in training missions within the specific designated areas of the South China Sea.
Observers noted the symbolic nature of these events. The U.S. Navy's activities appear aimed at demonstrating its commitment to allies like the Philippines, particularly amid concerns over China’s growing military presence and influence. The Chinese Navy, for its part, has emphasized its readiness to respond to perceived provocations during these patrol exercises, aimed at asserting sovereignty over disputed waters.
Another layer of tension emerged with the discovery by Philippine fishermen of what has been termed a "big fish"—a yellow unmanned underwater vehicle marked with the code HY-119. Philippine authorities assert this device is linked to Chinese underwater navigation and communication systems, albeit lacking weaponry. Concerns revolve around its potential utility for reconnaissance or surveillance operations, prompting the Philippine Coast Guard to hand it over to military officials for analysis.
While neither the Chinese nor Philippine governments issued immediate public statements about the incident, the Philippine side is anticipated to capitalize on the opportunity to amplify discussions around the so-called Chinese threat narrative. Drawing attention to such incidents may serve the Philippines' agenda to seek greater external support against Chinese assertiveness, especially following recent regularized patrols by the PLA.
Despite these provocations, experts argue the likelihood of significant escalation remains low, largely because both China and the U.S. recognize the potential ramifications of military clashes. The Biden administration's strategy appears to balance show of force with restraint, as aggressive maneuvers by the U.S. could inequitably lead to the situation spiraling out of control.
The Biden administration, having been perceived as reluctant to take extreme measures, instead values maintaining freedom of navigation routes alongside allied nations, rather than engaging directly and provocatively. Philipines, under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., is grappling with internal pressures to confront China more boldly, yet must navigate this tightrope knowing regional power dynamics favor China’s military capabilities.
From China’s perspective, the show of maritime strength through the continuous deployment of naval forces serves dual purposes: it asserts its claim over contested territories and provides assurance of protection to its interests. With the South China Sea being pivotal for its maritime trade routes, exposing its military prowess is central to its broader geopolitical strategy.
Reflecting on the recent military maneuvers, it’s clear the South China Sea remains a flashpoint for U.S.-China relations, where both sides exhibit their military capabilities amid rising tensions. Whether through enhanced patrols or technological discoveries, these acts symbolize the complicated interplay between maintaining strategic interests and avoiding overt conflict.
Moving forward, as both countries navigate this charged atmosphere, the next steps taken will be pivotal. Will the United States continue to assert its presence during the Chinese patrols, and how will China respond? The strategies employed could significantly impact the regional security order and relations between Washington and Beijing.