On Thursday, March 27, 2025, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a stern warning to Venezuela, stating that any military attack on Guyana would be a "big mistake." Speaking during a press conference in Georgetown alongside Guyana's President Irfaan Ali, Rubio expressed unwavering support for Guyana, particularly regarding the disputed Essequibo region, which Venezuela claims as its own.
Rubio emphasized the strength of the U.S. Navy, declaring, "We have a very large Navy that can go almost anywhere, and we have existing commitments with Guyana." He further noted that regional threats stem from what he termed "illegitimate territorial claims" made by a "drug-trafficking regime," referring to the Venezuelan government led by President Nicolás Maduro. He warned that aggressive actions would have consequences, reinforcing the importance of U.S.-Guyana cooperation.
President Ali expressed his satisfaction with the U.S. commitment to safeguarding Guyana's territorial integrity and sovereignty. This support comes at a time when Venezuela has intensified its claims over Essequibo, a territory rich in oil and natural resources, which has been part of Guyana for over a century. The tension escalated after Maduro announced plans to hold elections for a governor in Essequibo, a move that Guyana condemned and warned would lead to legal repercussions for those participating.
The backdrop of this geopolitical tension is the significant oil production potential in Guyana, which is projected to reach 1.3 million barrels per day by the end of the decade, according to ExxonMobil. This contrasts sharply with Venezuela's plummeting oil output, which has fallen from over 3.5 million barrels per day to around 900,000 barrels. The U.S. has been working to reduce Caribbean nations' dependence on Venezuelan oil, a strategy Rubio reiterated during his visit.
During his trip, Rubio signed a memorandum to enhance security cooperation with Guyana, which includes increased intelligence sharing and military collaboration. This agreement is seen as a step towards establishing a relationship similar to that which the U.S. maintains with Gulf nations, where American troops are stationed as a countermeasure against Iranian influence.
In response to Rubio's comments, Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yván Gil dismissed the warnings as "bravado," asserting that Venezuela would not be intimidated by foreign interests attempting to influence the Essequibo dispute. He emphasized that Venezuela does not seek conflict but will defend its territorial claims against perceived threats.
Venezuelan President Maduro reacted to Rubio's statements by labeling him an "imbecile," asserting that Venezuela is not threatened by anyone. Maduro's government has accused the U.S. and its allies of undermining regional peace and stability, particularly in light of the recent military exercises conducted by the U.S. Navy in the Caribbean.
The historical context of the Essequibo dispute dates back over a century, with the current borders established by an arbitral award in 1899. Venezuela, however, contests this outcome, citing the Geneva Agreement signed in 1966, which called for a negotiated resolution to the territorial claims.
The situation has been further complicated by recent incidents, including the reported incursion of a Venezuelan naval vessel into Guyanese waters near ExxonMobil's operations. This has raised alarms in Georgetown, prompting the Guyanese government to issue warnings against any foreign military presence in the contested waters.
As the political climate heats up, the potential for conflict looms large. Rubio's visit to Guyana, part of a broader diplomatic mission through the Caribbean, highlights the U.S. strategy of solidifying alliances with nations facing threats from authoritarian regimes. The U.S. administration, under President Trump, has been vocal in its non-recognition of Maduro's presidency, citing allegations of electoral fraud and human rights abuses.
The U.S. has also taken steps to revoke licenses for companies like Chevron operating in Venezuela, further isolating Maduro's government economically. With tensions escalating, both sides appear to be bracing for a protracted struggle over the Essequibo region.
In the coming weeks, as Venezuela prepares for regional elections, the international community will be closely monitoring developments. The stakes are high, not only for Guyana and Venezuela but for the broader geopolitical landscape in Latin America, where U.S. interests are increasingly focused on energy independence and countering the influence of rogue states.
As the situation unfolds, the implications of Rubio's statements and the actions of both nations will be crucial in shaping the future of the region. The U.S. commitment to Guyana's sovereignty may serve as a deterrent against Venezuelan aggression, but the potential for miscalculation remains a significant concern.
