The South China Sea, one of the world’s busiest and most hotly contested waterways, is once again at the center of a tense standoff between two regional giants—China and the Philippines. After a series of increasingly confrontational incidents, the United States has stepped in, vowing military support for its treaty ally, the Philippines, if it comes under Chinese attack. The latest string of encounters, marked by water cannon blasts, dangerous maneuvers, and even deliberate ramming of vessels, has raised the stakes in a dispute that shows no signs of cooling down.
According to BenarNews, the most recent escalation unfolded on October 12, 2025, when China Coast Guard ships fired water cannons and deliberately rammed a Philippine Bureau of Fisheries boat just 1.8 nautical miles off Thitu Island—known locally as Pag-asa and by China as Zhongye. Thitu is the largest of the nine Philippine-controlled features in the Spratly Islands and home to both military personnel and a small fishing community. The island sits just 20 kilometers from China’s artificial island base of Subi, an outpost bristling with missiles and runways, underscoring the strategic importance of this patch of sea.
In response to the incident, U.S. Department of State deputy spokesman Thomas Pigott issued a clear and forceful statement on October 14. “The United States condemns China’s October 12 ramming and water cannoning of a Philippine Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources vessel close to Thitu Island in the South China Sea,” Pigott said. He went on to stress, “China’s sweeping territorial and maritime claims in the South China Sea and its increasingly coercive actions to advance them at the expense of its neighbors continue to undermine regional stability and fly in the face of its prior commitments to resolve disputes peacefully.” Pigott reaffirmed that the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) between the U.S. and the Philippines “extends to armed attacks on Philippine forces, public vessels or aircraft—including those of its coast guard—anywhere in the South China Sea.”
China, for its part, has fiercely defended its actions. The China Coast Guard accused the Philippine vessels of illegally entering Chinese waters near Sandy Cay, a cluster of sandbars located between Thitu and Subi. According to their statement, the Chinese side “took control measures against the Philippine vessels in accordance with the law and resolutely drove them away.” Beijing’s claims are rooted in its so-called ten-dash line, which encompasses nearly the entire South China Sea, overlapping with the exclusive economic zones of several Southeast Asian countries.
Despite the mounting pressure, Manila has so far chosen to respond with diplomacy rather than force. The Philippine government has adopted a strategy of “name-and-shame,” seeking to rally international support and sympathy by publicizing Chinese actions. At the same time, Filipino officials have been cautious about invoking the MDT too overtly, wary of escalating the situation to the point of direct U.S. military involvement, which could prompt China to withdraw from ongoing dialogues.
The latest incidents have not been isolated. On October 13, as reported by Newsweek, Chinese naval and coast guard forces attempted to obstruct a Philippine government supply mission near Sabina Shoal and Scarborough Shoal—two long-disputed areas within the Philippines’ maritime zone. The convoy, which included Philippine coast guard and Bureau of Fisheries vessels, was delivering fuel and groceries to local fishermen. Coast guard spokesperson Jay Tarriela described the encounters as “tense,” noting that about 10 Chinese coast guard ships and another 10 maritime militia vessels, plus People’s Liberation Army Navy helicopters and ships, were present near Scarborough Shoal.
Tarriela accused Chinese vessels of “dangerous maneuvers and blocking actions” that delayed the supply mission and said Chinese coast guard ships again used water cannons “to threaten and intimidate Filipino fishermen.” For the first time, China’s coast guard accused Manila of violating an environmental reserve that Beijing unilaterally declared over Scarborough Shoal in September—a move that drew sharp protests from both Manila and Washington. Despite these obstacles, the Philippine mission succeeded in delivering supplies to nearly 100 fishing vessels and facilitated the purchase of 30 tons of fresh fish.
Western analysts see the growing presence of Chinese naval forces in these confrontations as a major escalation. Traditionally, China has relied on its coast guard and maritime militia to press its claims, minimizing the risk of outright conflict. But recent events suggest a shift. In one incident, a Chinese navy destroyer reportedly collided with a Chinese coast guard ship during an encounter with a Philippine vessel, resulting in heavy damage to the coast guard cutter and, according to Philippine officials, likely casualties among Chinese crew members. Both sides blamed the other for unsafe navigation.
The Philippines, though outgunned, is not backing down. Coast Guard spokesman Commodore Jay Tarriela said the “mission objectives” of recent activities were to support local fishermen and ensure their safety because they are routinely subjected to “harassment and bullying activities of the Chinese Coast Guard.” He detailed that “all of these Chinese Coast Guard vessels actually entered the territorial sea of Pag-asa Island,” and that the Filipino vessel Datu Pagbuaya was damaged by the “intentional ramming” of a Chinese vessel. “All of those incidents happened between 1.6 to 1.8 nautical miles off the coast of Pag-asa Island. That means all of these incidents happened within the territorial sea of Pag-asa,” Tarriela emphasized. “Very, very close to Pag-asa.”
Admiral Ronnie Gil Gavan, head of the Philippine coast guard, underscored the stakes: “My top priority is to safeguard [fishermen’s] livelihoods from any interference by the China Coast Guard and to ensure their rights as Filipinos are never suppressed by external bullying. We stand firmly with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in defending every square inch of our sovereign territory against any foreign power.”
The National Maritime Council, a body established by President Marcos Jr. to monitor and boost security in the West Philippine Sea, issued a statement on October 12 condemning China’s aggression. The council called the proximity of Chinese ships to Pag-asa “of grave concern,” and urged China “to immediately cease these actions, respect international law, particularly the 1982 UNCLOS and the 2016 Arbitral Award, and avoid further escalation in the region.” The council also insisted, “The Philippines is clearly within its rights to conduct routine maritime operations in and around Pag-asa Island, and will continue to do so.”
China, meanwhile, has continued to assert its historical claim over the disputed waters. Li Guoqiang, deputy director of the Chinese Academy of History, told the state-run Global Times: “Since the Yuan Dynasty government surveyed Huangyan Dao [Scarborough Shoal], the island has always been an inalienable part of China. It has not only witnessed China’s official surveying, mapping, and naming but also the fishing production of Chinese fishermen.”
For now, neither side appears willing to back down. The 2016 international arbitral tribunal ruling, which favored the Philippines’ claims, remains a sore point for Beijing, which continues to reject its legitimacy. As the world watches, the question remains: how far will China and the Philippines go to defend their claims—and what role will the U.S. ultimately play in this high-stakes maritime chess game?
The events unfolding in the South China Sea are more than just a regional spat—they’re a reflection of shifting power, national pride, and the enduring struggle for control over one of the globe’s most vital arteries. With each new confrontation, the risk of miscalculation grows. The world, it seems, can only hold its breath and hope cooler heads prevail.
