On September 7, 2025, the simmering tensions between the United States and India over Russian oil imports flared up once again, thrusting global trade, energy security, and geopolitics into a complicated dance. The dispute, which has been brewing for months, now involves not only world leaders and diplomats, but also social media platforms, fact-checkers, and everyday consumers who may soon feel the pinch at the gas pump or the checkout counter.
The latest flashpoint came when Peter Navarro, a former aide to ex-President Donald Trump, posted a scathing critique of India’s Russian oil imports on X (formerly Twitter). Navarro accused India of buying Russian oil "purely to profit," alleging that the revenues "feed Russia’s war machine" in Ukraine. He didn’t stop there, asserting that India’s trade practices cost American jobs and calling the ongoing conflict "Modi’s war," a pointed jab at Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. According to NPR, Navarro has repeatedly described India as "a laundromat for the Kremlin" and has been unrelenting in his criticism since Trump’s administration imposed secondary tariffs exceeding 50% on Indian exports.
But Navarro’s post didn’t go unchallenged. X’s community-driven fact-checking system, known as Community Notes, swiftly flagged his claims. The platform clarified that India’s oil purchases are driven by energy security needs and are conducted within the bounds of international sanctions. It also pointed out the hypocrisy in the U.S. position: while Washington criticizes India’s Russian oil trade, America itself continues to import Russian goods, including uranium, and maintains a trade surplus with India in services. The fact-checkers noted, "India’s sovereign oil purchases comply with international law." The data and code behind these corrections are open source, as Elon Musk himself emphasized in his defense of X’s approach: "On this platform, the people decide the narrative. You hear all sides of an argument. Community Notes corrects everyone, no exceptions."
Navarro, however, was having none of it. He fired back, accusing Musk of allowing "propaganda" to infiltrate the platform and doubling down on his claim that India is profiteering from the war. "Wow. @elonmusk is letting propaganda into people's posts. That crap note below is just that. Crap. India buys Russian oil solely to profiteer. It didn't buy any before Russia invaded Ukraine. Indian govt spin machine moving high tilt. Stop killing Ukrainians. Stop taking American jobs," Navarro wrote.
While the online spat raged, the real-world stakes were growing. As reported by Bloomberg and Hindustan Times, Indian state-owned refiners, led by Indian Oil Corp. Ltd., have sought to fully revive Russian oil imports as a countermeasure to the steep U.S. tariffs. However, their plans have hit a wall due to a lack of available Russian cargoes for October loading. The global oil market is now watching Indian buying patterns closely, especially after the U.S. raised tariffs on most Indian imports to 50%—a move designed to pressure Moscow by squeezing one of its biggest energy customers.
This pressure campaign is part of a larger strategy. On September 7, 2025, following Russia’s largest aerial assault on Ukraine since the war began, former President Trump signaled his readiness for a "second phase" of sanctions—not just on Russia, but on countries like India that continue to buy Russian oil. When asked at the White House if he was prepared for new sanctions, Trump replied tersely, "Yeah, I am." U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added that Washington and the EU were considering "secondary tariffs" on Russia’s oil buyers, arguing that only a collapse of Russia’s economy would bring President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table.
The U.S. has justified its harsh measures by accusing India of "funding and profiting from the Ukraine war," as White House trade adviser Peter Navarro told Bloomberg Television. Yet, the situation is more tangled than it appears. According to an NPR analysis, the U.S. itself imported roughly $1.4 billion worth of oil products from India between January and July 2025—most of it from Reliance Industries’ massive refinery in Jamnagar, Gujarat. Researchers from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) estimate that nearly half the crude processed at this refinery comes from Russia. This means U.S. consumers are, indirectly, still buying fuel made from Russian oil, even as Washington lambasts India for doing the same.
Isaac Levi, a CREA researcher, noted, "The U.S. must follow suit if they want to stop sending hundreds of millions of dollars to the Kremlin war chest each year." The European Union has already banned imports of Russian crude and refined products, but the U.S. has not taken similar steps. Meanwhile, other major economies—like China, which imported more than $4 billion in Russian crude in July alone—have not faced the same penalties as India. Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar has publicly criticized the U.S. for singling out India, arguing that larger trading partners with Russia have escaped unscathed.
Despite public defiance, the numbers tell a story of caution. Data compiled by CREA and ship-tracking firms show that India’s imports of Russian oil dipped 24% in July compared to June 2025, likely in response to Trump’s tariff threats. Imports rebounded slightly in August, but the increase was modest. Analysts caution against reading too much into short-term fluctuations, noting that nearly 60% of India’s oil purchases are locked in long-term contracts and that economics often outweigh politics when it comes to energy procurement. As Lydia Powell of the Observer Research Foundation explained, "While politics has a role in oil imports, most such decisions are influenced by economics."
India’s government remains resolute. On September 5, 2025, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman declared that India would continue buying oil from Russia, regardless of U.S. pressure. Oil Minister Hardeep Puri echoed this stance in a newspaper column, and India has even begun mending ties with China, whose ambassador recently voiced support for New Delhi against "bullying." Days before the new U.S. tariffs were imposed, Russia offered India a 5% discount on oil imports—a move analysts say is "significant," but whose long-term impact remains to be seen.
Experts across the board agree that India cannot simply walk away from Russian oil. "Russia exports about 7.5 million barrels a day," said Amit Bhandari, an energy expert at Gateway House. "There isn’t that much spare capacity in all of the world to frankly make that difference up." Cutting off Russian oil could send global prices soaring, with ripple effects for consumers everywhere.
The fallout from the U.S. tariffs is already being felt in India’s labor-intensive sectors—textiles, jewelry, seafood, and automobiles. While some goods like medicines and electronics are exempt, U.S. businesses and consumers could soon see higher prices for everything from shrimp to spices. Ajay Srivastava of the Global Trade Research Initiative warned that the biggest casualty could be the goodwill built up between India and the U.S. over decades. "The current generation of India’s youth grew up enamored with the U.S.," he said. "Trump’s actions will send them a message: that the U.S. cannot be trusted."
As the world watches, the U.S.-India standoff over Russian oil has become a test of economic pragmatism, diplomatic resolve, and the shifting balance of global power. Whether reason, necessity, or politics will ultimately prevail remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: the stakes are higher than ever, and the outcome will reverberate far beyond the borders of Washington and New Delhi.
