On August 20, 2025, the U.S. State Department designated five of Mexico’s most notorious drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs), a move that’s already sending shockwaves through the halls of power on both sides of the border. According to reporting from Foreign Affairs and corroborated by military sources cited in Substack, this unprecedented step is not just symbolic—it’s laying the legal and operational groundwork for what could soon become direct U.S. military action against cartel targets inside Mexico.
President Donald Trump, who first threatened military action against Mexican cartels back in November 2019, has doubled down on his hardline approach. In the months following his initial threats, he even floated the idea of missile strikes on drug labs in Mexico, according to then-Defense Secretary Mark Esper. Now, with the FTO designations in place, Trump has secretly directed the Defense Department to develop concrete plans for attacks on these organizations, as reported by The New York Times and multiple military sources.
This isn’t just talk. In late spring of this year, the Trump administration issued a Top Secret planning order tasking U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM) to prepare for lethal strikes against cartel targets, with readiness expected by mid-September. A key meeting in July at NORTHCOM headquarters in Colorado Springs, led by Colby Jenkins, the unconfirmed Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low-Intensity Conflict, brought the issue into sharp focus. General Gregory M. Guillot, commander of NORTHCOM, soon hosted Mexico’s top military brass—General Ricardo Trevilla Trejo and Admiral Raymundo Pedro Morales Ángeles—underscoring the high stakes and diplomatic sensitivity of any cross-border action.
“Today, more than ever, the challenges we face demand a joint, coordinated, and adapted response,” Admiral Morales said after the Colorado visit, making it clear to Pentagon leaders that Mexico’s sovereignty is a red line. While the U.S. and Mexico have historically cooperated closely on security, anything resembling unilateral U.S. military action south of the border touches a raw nerve in Mexico—a country that lost more than half its territory to the U.S. in the 19th century and remains fiercely protective of its independence.
Despite these sensitivities, operations inside Mexico have typically been the domain of the CIA and Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC), both accustomed to working in the shadows. But now, with NORTHCOM’s Special Operations Command (SOCNORTH) preparing the “operational battlespace,” the scale and openness of U.S. preparations are reaching new heights. SOCNORTH is reportedly assembling “target packages” for potential strikes against high-value individuals and facilities tied to the Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation cartels, with options ranging from drone and air strikes to direct action by elite forces such as Army Green Berets and Navy SEALs.
General Guillot, in congressional testimony this year, confirmed that intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) activities over Mexico have increased—authorized by the U.S. Department of Defense, not the Mexican government. “It is already apparent the military-to-military relationship between the United States and Mexico is robust and expanding as both nations address the challenges posed by common threats to our citizens and shared interests,” Guillot told Congress, highlighting the unprecedented level of operational compatibility between the two countries. But he also made clear there’s a limit: “We do have intelligence sharing with Mexico to show them what we see. And we have increased cooperation with Mexico to go address the cartel violence in terms of sending more troops.”
The FTO designation is more than a rhetorical flourish. It opens up powerful legal tools for U.S. authorities. Under 18 U.S.C. § 2339B, anyone knowingly providing material support or resources—including weapons—to a foreign terrorist organization faces up to 20 years in prison. The law doesn’t require prosecutors to prove that defendants intended to further terrorist activity, just that they knew the recipient was a designated terrorist group. This could have sweeping implications for U.S. gun dealers, straw buyers, and smugglers whose products have long fueled cartel violence.
The scale of the problem is staggering. Between 72,000 and 258,000 firearms are trafficked illegally from the U.S. into Mexico every year, according to ATF data cited by Foreign Affairs. In 2024, 70.5 percent of weapons recovered at Mexican crime scenes and traced by the ATF were linked to licensed U.S. gun dealers. The trend is worsening: from 2019 to 2024, the number of weapons traced back to the U.S. jumped by more than 25 percent. These aren’t just handguns; military-grade .50-caliber weapons, purchased legally in the U.S., have been used to shoot down Mexican military helicopters and force the release of cartel leaders in audacious daylight attacks.
Since 2006, the toll of Mexico’s drug war has been nothing short of catastrophic—over 480,000 dead, more than 120,000 disappeared, and thousands of police and military personnel among the casualties. The Mexican government has repeatedly called out Washington for failing to curb the flow of arms, even filing a $10 billion civil suit against U.S. gun manufacturers in 2021. That suit was dismissed by the U.S. Supreme Court in June 2025, which cited the 2005 Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act shielding gun makers from liability.
Despite the scale of the crisis, U.S. enforcement remains hamstrung. The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) is underfunded and understaffed, with the Trump administration proposing a 25 percent budget cut and layoffs for 540 inspectors. This has made it nearly impossible to police the river of iron flowing south—an issue that the FTO designation could now address through both criminal prosecution and Treasury Department sanctions under Executive Order 13224.
“The cartels are waging war in America, and it’s time for America to wage war on the cartels, which we are doing,” President Trump declared to Congress in March, signaling a new phase in the war on drugs. Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed this sentiment, stating, “We have to start treating them as armed terrorist organizations, not simply drug dealing organizations.”
The fentanyl crisis, which has claimed more than 225,000 American lives, is a key driver behind this escalation. In a tense exchange with Senator Roger Wicker, General Guillot admitted, “I wouldn’t say it’s better,” when pressed on whether the U.S. is making progress against fentanyl. He added, “We have a better foundation now that we’ve increased the intelligence to make rapid progress against this threat.” But he also emphasized the need for more ISR and expanded authorities to conduct joint operations with Mexico’s elite forces.
Not everyone is on board. The gun lobby and many in Trump’s political base are fiercely opposed to any restrictions on firearms, and sanctioning dealers for material support to terrorism is sure to provoke fierce backlash. Yet, as Foreign Affairs notes, “that may be the price the president has to pay to make good on his promise.”
Military action alone is unlikely to solve America’s drug crisis, but stemming the flow of U.S. weapons into Mexico could be a pivotal step. It would not only save lives but also offer Mexico’s embattled police and military a fighting chance against the cartels—without the need for U.S. boots on the ground. As the U.S. and Mexico stand at this historic crossroads, the decisions made in the coming months could reshape the security landscape of North America for years to come.
