The United States has solidified its status as the world's top arms exporter, accounting for 43% of global weapons exports over the past five years, significantly increasing from 35% during the previous period. According to research conducted by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), this growth has largely been fueled by surging demand from European nations amid heightened security concerns following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
For the first time in two decades, European NATO countries emerged as the United States' primary customers, with over 60% of their arms imports sourced from the U.S. This marks a dramatic increase, with European arms imports rising by 105% between 2020 and 2024 compared to the previous five years. Ukraine has become the largest arms importer globally, reflecting the urgent military needs driven by the conflict with Russia.
The statistics reveal how the U.S. arms industry has capitalized on this military uptick. "European NATO states have almost 500 combat aircraft and many other weapons still on order from the USA," noted Pieter Wezeman, senior researcher at SIPRI. The trend shows no signs of stopping; with significant contracts already agreed upon for future sales, it appears the U.S. is set to maintain its position at the top of the global arms trade for the foreseeable future.
The current U.S. arms exports expanded by 21% compared to the previous five-year timeline, supplying arms to 107 countries. European states alone accounted for 35% of U.S. arms exports, marking an astounding increase from just 13% from 2015 to 2019. Russia's share of the global arms trade has, conversely, seen substantial declines, with its exports plummeting by 64% from 2015 to 2019 to 2020 through 2024.
Wezeman highlighted some of the key drivers behind Russia's declines: "Two of Russia’s most important arms-trading relationships had already weakened before 2022, with India increasingly favouring other suppliers and China sourcing more arms from its own burgeoning arms industry." Despite these setbacks, Russia has still managed to deliver arms to 33 countries over the past five years, largely concentrated on the Asian market where 74% of its exports went.
International sanctions and geopolitical pressures following Russia's action against Ukraine have underscored its struggle to maintain its market share. India remains the largest importer of Russian arms, accounting for 38% of exports, but relations have shifted as India diversifies its arms sources.
Western Europe and the U.S. combined accounted for nearly 75% of all arms exports during the five-year period, reflecting not only the strength of U.S. military equipment but also the changing dynamics of international relations. France has emerged as the second-largest arms exporter, but its market share of around 10% pales compared to the U.S. SIPRI has noted France's resurgence has been largely due to significant contracts for Rafale fighter jets sold to Greece and Croatia, alongside military aid for Ukraine.
Even as the U.S. enjoys growing sales of high-end fighter jets and long-range missiles, analysts assert the political relationship will also play a significant role going forward. The Biden administration's desire for NATO allies to increase their military spending indicates the complex interplay between arms sales and geopolitical strategy.
While the Middle East region has consistently turned to the U.S. for arms—accounting for 33% of exports—Saudi Arabia remains the largest single buyer of U.S. weapons. Observers note Washington's advanced long-range strike capabilities, including combat aircraft and missile systems, are central to its attractiveness as supplier.
The volatility of global arms purchases is compounded by mixed sentiments among European allies. Concerns have been raised about the future reliability of American arms supplies, especially following statements made during the Trump administration to curb U.S. support for Ukraine. Some European nations worry this unpredictability could extend to their security as well.
“This debate has certainly started," said Sebastian Schäfer, a German lawmaker who sits on a parliamentary defense-spending committee. His concerns reflect wider apprehension among NATO countries over potential shifts in U.S. foreign policy.
Meanwhile, continued tensions with Russia have prompted many European nations to significantly boost their defense budgets. Germany, for example, has announced exemptions for military spending from its strict fiscal regulations, hinting at a long-term commitment to increased defense. Similarly, the U.K. and Denmark have also declared intentions to ramp up defense spending, reflecting broader European commitment to military preparedness.
Despite calls for Europe to develop its own defense capabilities, participants acknowledge the interconnectedness of European and American military technologies, which complicates quick transitions to alternatives. "The F-35 is, of course, an American product, but as part of (F-35) sales to European states, the industry in those states has also been involved in the production of key components," Wezeman explained.
With defense-related stocks increasing due to projected spending hikes among European manufacturers, it's evident the arms race has ramifications beyond just military engagements. Notably, shares of Britain's BAE Systems, Germany’s Rheinmetall, and others are surging, highlighting potential shifts within the arms manufacturing sectors.
Clearly, the current trends signal not only the changing face of global military spending but also insights on where arms companies are focusing future investments. While the U.S. is currently reaping the rewards of heightened conflict, observers ponder how long existing dynamics will maintain, particularly with the shifting tides of international alliances and growing military autonomy among nations like India and China.