Negotiations mediated by the United States between Russia and Ukraine have advanced in Riyadh, offering the possibility of a cessation of hostilities in the Black Sea and a suspension of attacks on energy infrastructure. Officials from Ukraine and the United States participated in a second round of negotiations on March 25, 2025, discussing a potential limited ceasefire just a day following more than twelve-hour meetings between Russian and American delegations. This intensive round of discussions, occurring amidst ongoing hostilities, aims to achieve a temporary agreement to halt attacks on critical infrastructure and address tensions in the Black Sea, a crucial corridor for both nations’ exports.
The first session of negotiations began on March 23, 2025, with representatives from Kiev. The subsequent meeting with Russian officials and the United States took place on March 24, followed by continued talks into the next day, where discussions reportedly wrapped up after approximately one hour. While both sides express cautious optimism about progress, officials from Moscow and Kiev emphasize that an imminent agreement is not guaranteed.
A crucial element of the negotiation involves potentially reactivating a grain export agreement initially brokered in 2022. This agreement allowed millions of tons of Ukrainian grain to be transported across the Black Sea but has been stalled due to rising military tensions. According to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, his country is prepared to restore this agreement, provided that certain unspecified demands are met. Lavrov noted that discussions with U.S. officials centered on improving maritime security and ensuring safe passage for commercial shipping in the Black Sea.
Meanwhile, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov characterized the talks as “technical,” adding that specific outcomes from the discussions would not be disclosed. Following the meetings, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy indicated that his government is working on a list of critical infrastructures that could benefit from a potential ceasefire. This suggests a complex interplay of interests, as U.S. involvement may be necessary in overseeing or enforcing any agreements reached.
The Russian delegation, led by high-ranking diplomat Grigory B. Karasin and Sergey O. Beseda, plays a significant role in these discussions. Beseda, given his influence within the Russian intelligence community, has previously asserted that there was substantial pro-Russian sentiment in Ukraine prior to the 2022 invasion. Karasin described the dialogue as “creative,” further emphasizing the intricacies of the negotiations.
On the Ukrainian side, the delegation includes Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and Pavlo Palisa, military advisor to Zelenskiy. Both officials are part of a peace negotiation team headed by Zelenskiy’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak. Notably, additional Ukrainian representatives include deputy ministers for foreign affairs and energy, reflecting the multifaceted nature of the talks.
Despite the tentative progress made, the gap between Russian and Ukrainian positions remains wide. Moscow is pressing Ukraine to cease troop mobilization and the acceptance of foreign military aid as preconditions for any temporary truce. Simultaneously, the Kremlin insists on the recognition of referendums held in occupied Ukrainian territories to legitimize their annexation, a demand that Ukraine staunchly rejects, stemming from its commitment to territorial integrity.
Steven Witkoff, a U.S. envoy previously appointed by former President Donald Trump, expressed that the ultimate goal of these negotiations is to achieve a 30-day cessation of hostilities. This would pave the way for more in-depth discussions regarding a permanent truce. However, the road to such an agreement seems obstructed by the rigid stances of both sides, particularly in view of Russia's stringent demands and Ukraine's firm refusal to concede on sovereign matters.
The discussion of a pause in conflict adds layers of complexity, especially as Kyiv and Moscow encounter differing interpretations of what a ceasefire entails. The White House has posited that a partial ceasefire would eliminate attacks on energy and infrastructure, while the Kremlin has narrowed down its interpretation to specifically “energy infrastructure.” These conflicting views highlight the challenges that negotiators face amid ongoing hostilities.
As the conversations continue, attempts to establish secure shipping routes in the Black Sea have garnered a measure of support from both parties. Lavrov reiterated that discussions had primarily focused on maritime security amidst the vital trade routes in the region.
Meanwhile, the situation on the ground remains volatile. The Russian Defense Ministry reported that Ukraine has continued its drone attacks on Russian civilian energy facilities, illustrating the fraught conditions surrounding the negotiations. For instance, on March 24, 2025, a Ukrainian drone struck a high-voltage power line connecting the Rostov nuclear power plant to the city of Tikhoretsk, further exacerbating tensions.
Moreover, the impact of ongoing military actions cannot be understated. In recent hostilities, a Russian missile attack in the city of Sumy resulted in over 100 injuries, including 23 children, as residential buildings and a local school were struck, necessitating evacuations. The Ukrainian Air Force also reported that Russian forces have unleashed a barrage of missiles and drones against multiple regions, causing additional casualties.
The current round of negotiations, which notably does not include direct talks between Russia and Ukraine, signifies an ongoing endeavor to solidify a framework for a partial pause in what has become a protracted war. As diplomatic efforts continue, the uncertainty surrounding a conclusive agreement looms large, underpinned by the political complexities that characterize this prolonged conflict.
