Satellite imagery and intelligence reports continue to reveal the complex and evolving aftermath of the recent US and Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, highlighting both significant damage and ongoing uncertainty about the program's future capabilities.
On June 22 and 23, 2025, the US and Israel carried out coordinated airstrikes targeting key Iranian nuclear sites, including the underground Fordo enrichment facility near Qom, the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Centre, and the Natanz uranium enrichment complex. The attacks involved the unprecedented combat use of US B-2 Spirit stealth bombers dropping fourteen 30,000-pound GBU-57/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bunker-buster bombs, alongside Israeli strikes using Tomahawk cruise missiles and other munitions.
Satellite images captured by Maxar Technologies on June 24 and beyond revealed new craters and damage not initially visible after the strikes, particularly at Fordo. These images showed multiple large craters on access roads and near tunnel entrances, as well as destroyed buildings and extensive grey dust, indicating deep underground detonations. According to Trevor Lawrence, an explosives expert from Cranfield University, such detonations capable of expelling concrete would cause significant blast damage to underground structures, making short-term repairs unlikely.
Similarly, the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Centre sustained heavy damage from the strikes, with one of its main uranium conversion buildings largely destroyed. Tunnel entrances north of the complex also showed moderate structural damage, with evidence of scorching and potential internal explosions. Experts like Mark Cancian from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies suggest that some tunnel entrances could take years to repair, while others might be cleared within weeks depending on the extent of damage.
At Natanz, satellite images revealed two craters believed to be above centrifuge halls, vital for uranium enrichment. By June 24, these craters appeared to be covered with dirt, suggesting ongoing efforts to repair or reinforce the site. David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), emphasized the improbability of few centrifuges being destroyed given the location of the bomb craters directly above the centrifuge halls.
Other targets included Mehrabad airport near Tehran, where Israeli strikes damaged multiple structures linked to Iran’s defense industry, and Shahid Rajaee University in northeast Tehran, which suffered extensive damage from multiple airstrikes.
Despite the visible destruction, the full impact of these strikes on Iran's nuclear program remains contested. A leaked Pentagon Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) assessment suggested that the damage might only set Iran back by a few months, with many centrifuges intact and enriched uranium stocks moved to undisclosed locations prior to the attacks. This report, described as "low-confidence," sparked controversy and drew an angry response from then-President Donald Trump.
Trump, speaking at a NATO summit in The Hague, initially acknowledged the intelligence was inconclusive but then reiterated his claims that the strikes caused "total obliteration" and set Iran's nuclear program back "decades." He compared the use of bunker-buster bombs to the impact of the nuclear weapons dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II. Trump also denied reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) about the disappearance of Iran’s 400kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, asserting that the uranium conversion facility at Isfahan was "wiped out." US Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed these sentiments, highlighting the destruction of the conversion facility as critical to Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
However, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth tempered earlier declarations of "obliteration," describing the damage as "moderate to severe" and criticizing media coverage of preliminary intelligence leaks. He pledged an FBI investigation into the leaks but insisted the evidence of destruction was buried under mountains and thus difficult to assess publicly.
Israeli officials also weighed in, with the Israel Atomic Energy Commission stating that the strikes destroyed Fordo’s critical infrastructure and rendered the enrichment facility inoperable, setting back Iran’s nuclear weapons development by many years. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson, Brigadier General Effie Defrin, claimed the airstrikes exceeded expectations, pushing Iran's nuclear capabilities "years backward." Israeli intelligence estimates suggest a two-year setback for Iran’s nuclear program.
Meanwhile, CIA Director John Ratcliffe confirmed credible intelligence indicating severe damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities, stating that several key sites were destroyed and would require years to rebuild. This assessment aligns with statements from Israeli officials and Iran's own admission that its nuclear sites were "badly damaged." Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei condemned the attacks as a "detrimental blow" to international law and the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), to which Iran remains a signatory.
The situation remains highly politicized and complex. Experts like Jeffrey Lewis from the Middlebury Institute caution that Iran possesses multiple underground facilities not targeted in the strikes, allowing continued nuclear development. Additionally, intelligence can be subject to disinformation, and assessments may evolve as more information becomes available.
On the ground, Israeli and Mossad operatives have reportedly conducted covert operations inside Iran during the conflict, with IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir acknowledging commandos' involvement alongside air force operations. Mossad Chief David Barnea affirmed that operatives would continue to operate within Iran.
Despite an uneasy ceasefire engineered in part by Trump, the possibility of renewed conflict remains. Trump himself expressed cautious optimism but acknowledged the chance fighting could resume soon. He also revealed operational details of the strikes, including the precision of submarine-launched Tomahawks and the involvement of F-22 Raptors, F-35 Joint Strike Fighters, and extensive aerial refueling support.
Diplomatic efforts continue, with Trump announcing a forthcoming US-Iran meeting to discuss Tehran’s nuclear program, although he downplayed the necessity of reaching an agreement. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized that Israel did not seek explicit US approval for the attacks but coordinated closely with American officials.
In response, Iran demands reparations for the damage inflicted and has moved to suspend cooperation with the IAEA following politically charged resolutions. Tehran’s parliament is also preparing legislation to potentially exit the NPT, raising concerns among nonproliferation advocates about the future of nuclear oversight in the region.
As the dust settles, the international community watches closely, aware that the true extent of the damage—and Iran’s response—will shape the geopolitical landscape for years to come.
