The U.S. has recently imposed sanctions on Pakistan's ballistic missile program, expressing growing concerns over Islamabad's ambitions to develop long-range missiles capable of reaching far beyond South Asia. On December 18, 2024, the U.S. State Department announced sanctions targeting four entities accused of supporting Pakistan’s missile development efforts: the National Development Complex (NDC), Akhtar and Sons Private Limited, Affiliates International, and Rockside Enterprise. The timing of these sanctions, part of the second wave issued this year, highlights the U.S. apprehension surrounding Pakistan’s increasingly sophisticated missile capabilities.
The NDC is at the forefront of Pakistan’s missile program, allegedly responsible for developing the Shaheen-series ballistic missiles, which have been central to Pakistan's deterrence strategy against India. The recent sanctions are aimed at curtailing the capacities associated with missile technology, particularly as U.S. officials worry about the potential for Pakistan to develop weapons capable of reaching the U.S. Homeland. U.S. Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer has characterized this development as a significant threat, noting, "Pakistan has developed increasingly sophisticated missile technology... If these trendlines continue, Pakistan will have the capability to strike targets well beyond South Asia, including the United States."
The U.S. has previously sanctioned entities believed to facilitate the procurement of missile technology. Earlier this year, sanctions were imposed on four companies—three Chinese and one Belarussian—accused of providing Pakistan with missile-related items. This systematic focus on Pakistan's missile program reflects Washington's broader strategic concerns as it seeks to deter countries from advancing their long-range missile capabilities.
Pakistan’s response to these sanctions has been firmly dismissive. The Foreign Office spokesperson, Mumtaz Zahra Baloch, stated, "The alleged threat perception from Pakistan’s missile capabilities and delivery means is unfortunate. These allegations are unfounded, devoid of rationality." Baloch's comments suggest Pakistan's commitment to its missile program as defensive, asserting it is solely meant to mitigate perceived threats from its regional neighbor, India. Historically, Pakistan has relied on its ballistic missile capabilities as part of its national security framework, particularly since nuclear tests were conducted back in 1998.
Relations between the U.S. and Pakistan have become increasingly strained, particularly amid growing ties between Washington and India and Islamabad's alignment with China. The geopolitical dynamics complicate the situation, as the U.S. views Pakistan's advancements as potentially aligning it closer to adversarial powers like Russia and North Korea. This perception could spur Islamabad to deepen its military cooperation with Beijing, exacerbated by the U.S.'s hard stance against its missile ambitions.
Concerns about the strategic ramifications of Pakistan's missile development have grown, with analysts observing the potential for Islamabad to deter U.S. involvement during conflicts with India. Estimations suggest it could take Pakistan about ten years to develop the capability to strike targets within the continental United States, but the urgency expressed by the Biden administration reflects Washington's proactive approach to prevent such advancements.
The sanctions, combined with the disapproval from Pakistan, spotlight the delicate balance of power and trust between these two nations. The longer-term consequences of this policy shift could lead Pakistan to rethink its strategic partnerships, especially if perceived as cornered by U.S. pressures.
Pakistani officials assert their missile development is focused on regional deterrence rather than posing any threat to the U.S., but the U.S., particularly with Finer’s remarks, appears unconvinced. Washington's unease stems from the specificity of the missile systems under development and their potential intercontinental capabilities.
The Biden administration’s sanctions signal not only the U.S.'s discontent with Pakistan's military ambitions but also convey a warning about future actions if Islamabad does not alter its course. The interplay of nuclear strategy, deterrence, and international relations will continually shape the operational framework of Pakistan's missile capabilities moving forward.
Consequently, the relationship between Pakistan and the United States is at a pivotal juncture, with mutual suspicions complicate what was once considered strong ties. The future will likely test the dynamics between Pakistan's ambitions and the U.S.'s steadfast opposition to any comprehensive military advancements perceived as threats.
