The United States has taken significant steps to address concerns surrounding Pakistan's ballistic missile program, imposing sanctions on four Pakistani entities, including the National Development Complex (NDC), which plays a pivotal role in the country's missile development efforts. This action marks the first time since 1998, when both India and Pakistan openly declared their nuclear capabilities, that such sanctions have been placed on a government agency involved with Pakistan's military capabilities.
On December 19, 2024, U.S. Department of State spokesperson Matthew Miller confirmed these sanctions, indicating they were directed at entities contributing to Pakistan's long-range ballistic missile program. The move has stirred considerable debate and concern, particularly as it signifies deteriorated ties between Washington and Islamabad since the U.S. troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. Miller stated, "Today, the United States is designang four entities contributing to Pakistan's ballistic missile program. We have been clear and consistent about our concerns, and we will continue to engage constructively with Pakistan on these issues."
The sanctions come against the backdrop of claims circulating on social media, alleging India lobbied for these financial restrictions against Pakistan. A fact check revealed this assertion to be false; official statements did not attribute the sanctions to any actions taken by India. Instead, the sanctions fall under Executive Order 13382, targeting proliferators of weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems.
The sanctioned entities, which also include Affiliates International, Akhtar and Sons Private Limited, and Rockside Enterprise, are accused of supplying materials and equipment for missile development. The NDC, according to official reports, has been working to acquire items to advance Pakistan's long-range missile capabilities, contributing to concerns over its potential ability to strike targets well beyond South Asia, including U.S. interests.
On December 19, Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer reinforced these concerns, labeling Pakistan's advancements as an “emerging threat” to the United States. Finer pointed to the progression of sophisticated missile technology, which he suggested could soon grant Pakistan the capability to reach American soil. This signals not only immediate, but also long-term apprehensions, as Finer elaborated, "Candidly, it's hard for us to see Pakistan's actions as anything other than an emergent threat to the United States," during his remarks at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
From Islamabad's perspective, its missile program serves as a deterrent against India, framed as necessary for maintaining regional stability. The Pakistani Foreign Office expressed discontent over the sanctions, commenting on their role in "accentuating military asymmetries" within South Asia, though it refrained from explicitly naming India.
Pakistan's missile advancements, such as the Ababeel and Shaheen-III, strategically aim to bolster its second-strike capabilities against India, particularly targeting Indian assets like the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Lt. Gen. (retd) Khalid Kidwai, former head of Pakistan's Strategic Plans Division, highlighted these missiles' capabilities, which were tested recently and reflect Pakistan's efforts to counter India’s military advantages.
The sanctions against Pakistan come amid broader geopolitical shifts, particularly with U.S. relations with India growing warmer. This dynamic raises questions about the U.S. response to Pakistan's military developments, perceived as biased and selective, according to analysts within Pakistan. U.S. policy reflects broader Indo-Pacific strategies, indicating Washington’s commitment to strengthening ties with India to counterbalance China's regional influence.
While sanctions have historically triggered anger and protest within Pakistan, this time, the domestic response seems muted. Some observers speculate this could be linked to the political turmoil resulting from the incarceration of former Prime Minister Imran Khan. Political distractions appear to undermine the public's focus on the serious ramifications of U.S. sanctions.
Former Pakistani ambassador to the U.S., Hussain Haqqani, argues these sanctions may have limited impact on Pakistan’s missile development capabilities, which are characterized as self-sufficient. The NDC's reliance on imports from China for certain technologies provides it some leeway to continue its military advancements without being wholly dependent on U.S. supply chains.
Despite the long-standing partnership between the U.S. and Pakistan, including cooperation post-9/11, this recent turn of events indicates significant distrust. U.S. officials noted their concerns over Pakistan’s engagement with entities believed to support nuclear proliferation, including partnerships with China. The complicated and often fraught history between the two nations complicates current communications over security matters.
Overall, the U.S. sanctions against Pakistan reflect growing anxieties over its missile development efforts against the backdrop of shifting international relations, The sanctions serve not just as punitive measures but also as warnings aimed at promoting regional stability, yet they also contribute to the complexity of U.S. foreign policy.
